Bush 48 / Kerry 44 in North Carolina says Robo Poll

[The Vorlon]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/North%20Carolina%20Jun%203.htm

I think this helps Edwards.

[agcatter]

more discouraging news for Bush.....

[Reds4]

Curious as to whether you guys think it is possible that if Kerry picks someone other than Edwards if his poll numbers in NC may drop somewhat? I'm wondering if him being presumed the frontrunner may be helping him close the gap somewhat.

[Smash255]

Would have been really interesting if this poll had  Edwards listed as the VP candidate.  his state could become close even without Edwards as the VP, no question about it that its battleground with Edwards on the ticket

[??????????]

The thing is if I say New Jersey could be grabbed by the GOP because Bush is only down by 5% I would be ripped. New Jersey is solid Dem. North Carolina is solid GOP.

[Smash255]

The thing is if I say New Jersey could be grabbed by the GOP because Bush is only down by 5% I would be ripped. New Jersey is solid Dem. North Carolina is solid GOP.

The difference is the polls in Jersey have been all over the place, and the gains Bush has made in those polls hasn't been constant, Kerry has been making constant gains in the N.C polls

[??????????]

And I've got a bridge for you in Arizona as well.

[Smash255]

And I've got a bridge for you in Arizona as well.

Do you think Edwards on the ticket makes NC battleground or are you ignoring more polls you don't like??

[??????????]

And I've got a bridge for you in Arizona as well.

Do you think Edwards on the ticket makes NC battleground or are you ignoring more polls you don't like??

North Carolina will go Democrat when Vermont goes Republican. Stick with Mason Dixon. It's a Vorlon approved pollster.

[Smash255]

And I've got a bridge for you in Arizona as well.

Do you think Edwards on the ticket makes NC battleground or are you ignoring more polls you don't like??

North Carolina will go Democrat when Vermont goes Republican. Stick with Mason Dixon. It's a Vorlon approved pollster.

You mean the same Mason Dixon poll that showed it neck & neck with Edwards on the ticket??

[??????????]

In that case I will also consider New Jersey and Maryland as "in play". They are both within 5 points.

[classical liberal]

Bush will win NC by 5 in the best case scenario, and 3 in the worst case scenario.  Raleigh is joining the ranks of such other liberal costal cities as Portland and Miami.  Pretty soon, it will have enough people to sway the state to the dems.  The new South is coming, but it won't be here until 2008.

[??????????]

Bush will win NC by 5 in the best case scenario, and 3 in the worst case scenario.  Raleigh is joining the ranks of such other liberal costal cities as Portland and Miami.  Pretty soon, it will have enough people to sway the state to the dems.  The new South is coming, but it won't be here until 2008.

Why do you discount younger folks like myself who are growingly concerned about the leftward swing of our nation. The ex hippies are really messing our predictions on future elections. In about another 20 years we won't have to worry about their radical 60ish politics.

[classical liberal]

because for the most part we are either relegated to places with little or no electoral significance (the interior west) or are hopelessly outnumbered along the coasts.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bush will win NC by 5 in the best case scenario, and 3 in the worst case scenario.  Raleigh is joining the ranks of such other liberal costal cities as Portland and Miami.  Pretty soon, it will have enough people to sway the state to the dems.  The new South is coming, but it won't be here until 2008.

That's because the Blue Dogs will have taken over.

Why do you discount younger folks like myself who are growingly concerned about the leftward swing of our nation. The ex hippies are really messing our predictions on future elections. In about another 20 years we won't have to worry about their radical 60ish politics.

[??????????]

I have no problem with most democrats. What concerns me is the extreme left wingers which seem to be hijacking the party.

[classical liberal]

The upside is that Dem control of the House will mean that people interested in not spending like drunken sailors will have enough clout to hold back the crazy left wingers.

[??????????]

The upside is that Dem control of the House will mean that people interested in not spending like drunken sailors will have enough clout to hold back the crazy left wingers.

I also hope they can hold back the whacky social ideas that they have.

[WalterMitty]

right wing nut:  raleigh is a pretty conservative city.

some people on this board think every freakin state is trending democratic.  i.e.  "idaho will be like oregon in 10 years"

[??????????]

right wing nut:  raleigh is a pretty conservative city.

some people on this board think every freakin state is trending democratic.  i.e.  "idaho will be like oregon in 10 years"

To many on this board the GOP is completely collapsing and soon it will be all Democrat. Much like the mock election. Politics is a lot like a pendulum. We swing to the left meet back in the center swing to the right and go back towards the center. Right now we are on the center right. We will swing a little farther right, peak and swing back again. It's a beautiful system actually.

[The Vorlon]

And I've got a bridge for you in Arizona as well.

Do you think Edwards on the ticket makes NC battleground or are you ignoring more polls you don't like??

North Carolina will go Democrat when Vermont goes Republican. Stick with Mason Dixon. It's a Vorlon approved pollster.

You mean the same Mason Dixon poll that showed it neck & neck with Edwards on the ticket??

That would be the one

Edwards gives Kerry a Bounce in North Carolina, likely to about a tie initially, then fades back to Bush +4 or 5%.

If nothng else, it would make Bush defend his base, which is something you never want to have to do.

I "think" I have figured out what is wrong with these state by state Rasmussen robo polls BTW

If I am right Bush will do more poorly than expected on the east coast, about right to a bit better than expected in the central time zones, and better than expected in the mountain and west coast zones.

It has to do with the way his telephone calling  gets done when he does his national polling.

In the big states (Say California down to say New Jersey or so) the efffect is muted, but the smaller states might go all to hell result wise...

Just a guess, but we will see..

BTW at a 400 sample size, even assuming a perfect methodology, 1 poll in 3 will report a lead that is wrong by 5% or more.

If Rasmussen reports 20 states, bet on 5 to 8 of them being wrong by more than 5%

[Josh/Devilman88]

Bush will win NC by 5 in the best case scenario, and 3 in the worst case scenario.  Raleigh is joining the ranks of such other liberal costal cities as Portland and Miami.  Pretty soon, it will have enough people to sway the state to the dems.  The new South is coming, but it won't be here until 2008.

Raleigh could not sway the state. Raleigh is still heavily consv. And Charlotte and Greensboro are very heavily consv. Bush will win by 7-10%.

[Storebought]

I recall during the 2000 election, the VNS spent half and hour or more repeating "North Carolina is too close to call", when Bush ultimately won the state with 16%.

I get the same feeling that Rasmussen is polling the same set of dipsticks exit-polled by VNS.

[emergingDmajority1]

I think the decision was made a long time ago that it was going to be Edwards, but they've kept his name out of the media recently and floated others like Vilsack, Clark, Gep, McCain etc, that way when Edwards comes up again as the true VP it will seem more of a surprise. The Kerry camp will probably send out alot of false leads, you'll hear that they're on the verge of announcing Clark then poof....it's Edwards.