The State Journal: WV Sen. Byrd (D) 59%, Raese (R) 30%

For the past several months, President Bush has been struggling with plummeting approval ratings from voters throughout the country.

But West Virginia voters appear to be bucking that trend -- at least a little.

A recent poll commissioned by The State Journal shows that while a majority of voters in West Virginia have an unfavorable opinion of the president, the percentage of people who think he is doing a good job is higher than the national average.

The poll, conducted by Charleston-based RMS Strategies during the week of May 22, shows that 43 percent of eligible voters in the state have a favorable opinion of Bush, while 54 percent said their opinion of the president was unfavorable. The margin of error for the poll was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

The West Virginia polling results are significantly different from nationwide numbers. A CBS News poll conducted on June 10-11 gave Bush a 33 percent job approval rating, which was down slightly from May, when 35 percent of adults approved of the job he was doing.

Robert Rupp, a political science professor at West Virginia Wesleyan College, said the West Virginia numbers are interesting because so many people in West Virginia are registered as Democrats.

"Even with the 2-1 ratio of Democrats, the state is 10 percent higher in approval ratings than the nation," he said. "It's important to remember he carried the state in 2004, and has lost between 10 and 15 percent of his support since then, but he started out at a higher plateau."

Rupp said there are several reasons why Bush's approval ratings have stayed higher than the rest of the state. The first reason, he said, is that Bush is the commander-in-chief, and some people in West Virginia will respect and support that position even if they don't always agree with the decisions the person makes. The second reason, he said, is that there may be less anti-war sentiment in West Virginia than elsewhere. Anti-war sentiments are one of the primary causes for Bush's approval troubles.

Mark Blankenship, RMS Strategies senior vice president, said Bush's numbers have remained relatively stable during the past six months.

When RMS conducted a similar poll for The State Journal in November, 52 percent of the 402 registered voters interviewed said they had favorable opinion of the president. About 45 percent of voters at that time had an unfavorable opinion of Bush.

"You have a few more voters now who have an unfavorable opinion of Bush than they did in November, but not many," he said. "Most opinions have held constant over the year."

West Virginia-based politicians fared much better than Bush in the May poll.

Gov. Joe Manchin still has a very high opinion among voters in West Virginia, with 38 percent saying they have a very favorable opinion of him and 42 percent having a somewhat favorable opinion of him. Only 14 percent of voters said they had a somewhat or very unfavorable opinion of the governor.

"That doesn't surprise me," Rupp said. "Gov. Manchin was ranked as either the most popular governor in the country or second-most popular governor in a USAToday poll."

Manchin's approval was higher than either of West Virginia's U.S. senators, who perpetually appear at the top of approval rankings.

Approximately 69 percent of voters said they had a favorable opinion of Sen. Jay Rockefeller, D-W.Va., compared to 25 percent, who said they had an unfavorable opinion of him. About 5 percent of voters did not have an opinion about Rockefeller.

Sen. Robert Byrd, D-W.Va., scored a little higher, with a 71 percent of voters saying they had a favorable opinion of the longest serving senator in United States history. About 24 percent of voters said they had an unfavorable opinion of him.

"That should make Byrd's people happy that the numbers are climbing," Rupp said. "He's seen a 10 to 15 percent increase from his lowest approval rating."

Byrd's support is likely to run through November's election. When voters were asked who they would vote for in the race for U.S. Senate if the election happened today, 59 percent said they would support Byrd. Approximately 30 percent of voters said they would support Republican John Raese. Another 10 percent of voters said they were undecided.

Those results don't surprise Rupp. He said polls consistently show Byrd earning 60 percent of the vote in a race against Raese.

"So unless something big happens, I think those numbers will stay at about 60 percent," he said. "I think now it's almost a nostalgia vote. This will likely be his last election, and people don't want him to lose his last race."

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