Why racial polarization so extreme in Deep South

[Indy Texas]

Something I've often wondered though is if it has to do with geographic segregation at all. Are the minority of white people who live in black belt counties more likely to vote Democrat?

I’ve heard mixed things on these whites in the Black Belt. Apparently the numbers say yes, but apparently many are basically like gentry, which would hardly lend itself to being Democratic.

Is that still the case? In earlier generations, they'd be living there to oversee the sharecroppers on their lands, but at this point most of that land is leased out to larger agricultural enterprises and the owners are absentee heirs who moved to Jackson and Birmingham (or maybe farther away to Dallas or Atlanta).

Ex. Richard Spencer's family derives a lot of its wealth from landholdings in Louisiana but they don't actually live in Louisiana.

[Alcibiades]

Something I've often wondered though is if it has to do with geographic segregation at all. Are the minority of white people who live in black belt counties more likely to vote Democrat?

I’ve heard mixed things on these whites in the Black Belt. Apparently the numbers say yes, but apparently many are basically like gentry, which would hardly lend itself to being Democratic.

Is that still the case? In earlier generations, they'd be living there to oversee the sharecroppers on their lands, but at this point most of that land is leased out to larger agricultural enterprises and the owners are absentee heirs who moved to Jackson and Birmingham (or maybe farther away to Dallas or Atlanta).

Ex. Richard Spencer's family derives a lot of its wealth from landholdings in Louisiana but they don't actually live in Louisiana.

I’m not sure. I remember Del Tachi saying that there are very few small white landowners left in the Black Belt, and it’s basically all wealthy white landowners, but you’d have to ask him if they actually live there.

[DINGO Joe]

Louisiana provides very specific post election statistics on voting by race and it's easy to provide examples of how rigid voting patterns are in the black belt.

In Ouachita Parish (Monroe) the 2008 results were:

McCain 41700   62.1%
Obama 24800   36.9
Others     700     1.0

The racial breakdown of the voting electorate

White  45000
Black   20300
Other    1800

In 2012 the results:

Romney  40900  59.8%
Obama   26600   38.9
Others       900     1.3

Changes in turnout by race vs 2008

White  (1200)
Black   +2000
Other    (100)

So, the swing towards Obama in 2012 wasn't due to any shift in racial voting patterns but merely a function of racial turnout

2016 results:

Trump    41700  61.4
Clinton   24400  35.9
Others     1850    2.7

Change in turnout by race vs 2008

White   +700
Black    +300
Other    (50)

Trump gets the same number of vote as McCain with presumably the increase in white voters primarily going to 3rd party.  Hillary couldn't match Obama in 2008 despite a tiny increase in black voters and she bled votes to 3rd party too.


2020 results:

Trump   42250  61.1
Biden    25900  37.5
Other      1000   1.4

Change in turnout by race vs 2008

White  +1100
Black   +900
Other   +200

As 3rd party voters return the big 2, Trump bests McCain but only captured half of the increase of white voters though white turnout was the highest of all 4 elections.
Biden got more black and white voters, though black turnout was still much higher in 2012.

Of course this is just the aggregate, there could have been shifts of WWC to Trump and educated whites to the Ds and there probably have been very very tiny ones but the high level of racial polarization means the vast majority of whites vote R to begin with.  Precinct level analysis has been rendered almost impossible because early voting is treated as a separate precinct and not parceled back to the individual precincts.

However, while you can parse things to minutiae all day, the "swings" in Ouachita Parish from election  to election are almost entirely a function of racial turnout and not shifts in voting patterns.

Now Orleans Parish is an entirely different story.....

[Calthrina950]

Louisiana provides very specific post election statistics on voting by race and it's easy to provide examples of how rigid voting patterns are in the black belt.

In Ouachita Parish (Monroe) the 2008 results were:

McCain 41700   62.1%
Obama 24800   36.9
Others     700     1.0

The racial breakdown of the voting electorate

White  45000
Black   20300
Other    1800

In 2012 the results:

Romney  40900  59.8%
Obama   26600   38.9
Others       900     1.3

Changes in turnout by race vs 2008

White  (1200)
Black   +2000
Other    (100)

So, the swing towards Obama in 2012 wasn't due to any shift in racial voting patterns but merely a function of racial turnout

2016 results:

Trump    41700  61.4
Clinton   24400  35.9
Others     1850    2.7

Change in turnout by race vs 2008

White   +700
Black    +300
Other    (50)

Trump gets the same number of vote as McCain with presumably the increase in white voters primarily going to 3rd party.  Hillary couldn't match Obama in 2008 despite a tiny increase in black voters and she bled votes to 3rd party too.


2020 results:

Trump   42250  61.1
Biden    25900  37.5
Other      1000   1.4

Change in turnout by race vs 2008

White  +1100
Black   +900
Other   +200

As 3rd party voters return the big 2, Trump bests McCain but only captured half of the increase of white voters though white turnout was the highest of all 4 elections.
Biden got more black and white voters, though black turnout was still much higher in 2012.

Of course this is just the aggregate, there could have been shifts of WWC to Trump and educated whites to the Ds and there probably have been very very tiny ones but the high level of racial polarization means the vast majority of whites vote R to begin with.  Precinct level analysis has been rendered almost impossible because early voting is treated as a separate precinct and not parceled back to the individual precincts.

However, while you can parse things to minutiae all day, the "swings" in Ouachita Parish from election  to election are almost entirely a function of racial turnout and not shifts in voting patterns.

Now Orleans Parish is an entirely different story.....

Where can I find these statistics?

[DINGO Joe]

https://www.sos.la.gov/ElectionsAndVoting/GetElectionInformation/FindResultsAndStatistics/Pages/default.aspx

It's the post election turnout statistics link at the bottom.