June primaries discussion

[Eraserhead]

Kind of surprised by how many write-ins there are in the DC Primary.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Why is Biden doing so poorly in South Dakota? lol.

Is Willamson really going to have her best ever performance there (in terms of percentage) for no apparent reason?

Independents are allowed to vote in the Democratic primary (but not the Republican primary).  May have been some pro-Trump independents that voted against Biden in the primary.

[Mexican Wolf]

Who the heck is Terrisa Bukovinac? Another Jason Palmer-like gadfly candidate?

[Eraserhead]

Biden down to 86% in New Mexico and 75% (!?!) in South Dakota.

Do we know how write-ins are doing against Trump in New Jersey?

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Who the heck is Terrisa Bukovinac? Another Jason Palmer-like gadfly candidate?

Seemingly a error.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Surprisingly low showing for No Preference in Missoula

[Eraserhead]

Biden might end up doing worse than Trump in New Mexico.

[Eraserhead]

Biden and Trump are both doing fine against "no preference" in Montana. Biden is doing slightly better than Trump so far.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Biden might end up doing worse than Trump in New Mexico.

Dipped below Trump's percentage.

[NOVA Green]

New Jersey:

Biden down to 82% in Hudson County (Est 69% in per DDHQ)
Biden down to 78% in Passaic County (Est 66% in per DDHQ)
Biden down to 84% in Bergen County (Est 66% in per DDHQ)

Looks like Biden is holding on pretty well in South Jersey.

[NOVA Green]

New Mexico:

Biden currently tracking at:

Bernalillo County: (85% Biden with est 91% in per DDHQ)

Overall numbers look pretty consistent so doubt much % change on the DEM side at this point.

Trump's numbers are something else...

Sure he might be at 85% overall, but really only 77% in Bernalillo County likely does not bode well this coming November in NM.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

New Mexico:

Biden currently tracking at:

Bernalillo County: (85% Biden with est 91% in per DDHQ)

Overall numbers look pretty consistent so doubt much % change on the DEM side at this point.

Trump's numbers are something else...

Sure he might be at 85% overall, but really only 77% in Bernalillo County likely does not bode well this coming November in NM.

Trump's numbers are fine.

Zombie vote is a traditional aspect of a open primary and he's receiving a higher overall primary percentage than a incumbent president.  

[NOVA Green]

New Mexico:

Biden currently tracking at:

Bernalillo County: (85% Biden with est 91% in per DDHQ)

Overall numbers look pretty consistent so doubt much % change on the DEM side at this point.

Trump's numbers are something else...

Sure he might be at 85% overall, but really only 77% in Bernalillo County likely does not bode well this coming November in NM.

Trump's numbers are fine.

Zombie vote is a traditional aspect of a open primary and he's receiving a higher overall primary percentage than a incumbent president.  

Logic check here how are Trump Zombie voters better than Biden Zombie voters in a State where Indies really don't vote that much w/o competitive elections and Indies tend to lean much more DEM?

Off Topic: Now you joined the forum much later than me, but I was actually involved in Solidarity support actions for the UMWA when I was going to College in OH back during the time of the strikes of the early '90s so posting an image of a shirt somewhat approximating one gifted to me by a 3rd generation UMWA OH Coal Miner who spoke to a large audience when I invited him to campus and there were tons of donations to the UMWA strike fund from throughout the community.

So asides being asides.... thought you might appreciate considering your avatar and sig

[AncestralDemocrat.]

New Mexico:

Biden currently tracking at:

Bernalillo County: (85% Biden with est 91% in per DDHQ)

Overall numbers look pretty consistent so doubt much % change on the DEM side at this point.

Trump's numbers are something else...

Sure he might be at 85% overall, but really only 77% in Bernalillo County likely does not bode well this coming November in NM.

Trump's numbers are fine.

Zombie vote is a traditional aspect of a open primary and he's receiving a higher overall primary percentage than a incumbent president.  

Logic check here how are Trump Zombie voters better than Biden Zombie voters in a State where Indies really don't vote that much w/o competitive elections and Indies tend to lean much more DEM?

Off Topic: Now you joined the forum much later than me, but I was actually involved in Solidarity support actions for the UMWA when I was going to College in OH back during the time of the strikes of the early '90s so posting an image of a shirt somewhat approximating one gifted to me by a 3rd generation UMWA OH Coal Miner who spoke to a large audience when I invited him to campus and there were tons of donations to the UMWA strike fund from throughout the community.

So asides being asides.... thought you might appreciate considering your avatar and sig

You can point to any primary with a incumbent president and there's typically less than "zombie voters" than the opposing open primary. 

Harry Enten has done the analysis and Trump is performing historically well as a non incumbent.

But yes, New Mexico is probably likely to safe D even in a environment that Trump wins.

I appreciate that tidbit.. I may have moved to the right in the last decade but I'll always back the UMWA.. they endorsed Moore Capito, but sadly we're going to be stuck with Morrisey as gov.

[smoltchanov]

In short (IMHO as usual) - there are 15-20% of US population, which strongly dislikes BOTH Biden and Trump. They (most likely) will determine, who will be the next US President in November. But, it's a shame on Democratic party that in 4 (FOUR!!!) years of Biden presidency they did 0 (NOTHING, ZERO) to find a good candidate "in case". Harris is another zero (if not "minus"), and, would something happen to Biden - Trump would crush her, despite all his problebms and indictements. Biden did what he must do in 2020: defeated Trump and earned his party 4 valuable years to continue. But - party squandered them, and now, despite Trump being an atrocious candidate, he stands on the threshold of victory. Blame yourself, Democrats!!

[Landslide Lyndon]

In short (IMHO as usual) - there are 15-20% of US population, which strongly dislikes BOTH Biden and Trump. They (most likely) will determine, who will be the next US President in November. But, it's a shame on Democratic party that in 4 (FOUR!!!) years of Biden presidency they did 0 (NOTHING, ZERO) to find a good candidate "in case". Harris is another zero (if not "minus"), and, would something happen to Biden - Trump would crush her, despite all his problebms and indictements. Biden did what he must do in 2020: defeated Trump and earned his party 4 valuable years to continue. But - party squandered them, and now, despite Trump being an atrocious candidate, he stands on the threshold of victory. Blame yourself, Democrats!!

If Biden for whatever reason decided to withdraw then Harris would replace him. Those who think that there would have been some way to be replaced by Whitmer, Newsom, Shapiro, etc., are just engaging in fan fiction.