McCain Locking Up Support From Bush Faithful

[Frodo]

McCain Mines Bush Faithful for 2008 Team

By JOHN M. BRODER
Published: August 21, 2006

WASHINGTON, Aug. 18 — Senator John McCain is locking up a cast of top-shelf Republican strategists, policy experts, fund-raisers and donors, in a methodical effort to build a 2008 presidential campaign machine that is drawing supporters of President Bush despite the sometimes rocky history between the two men.

Mr. McCain’s effort to woo a diverse lineup of backers and scare off rivals has augmented his travel schedule on behalf of Republicans — which this week and next includes trips to Iowa, Louisiana, Virginia, South Carolina, Ohio and Florida.

The effort is fueling a fund-raising operation that has helped him build loyalty throughout the party by doling out more than $800,000 to candidates since the start of last year through his political action committee.

Other Republican presidential hopefuls are doing likewise, but Mr. McCain is widely judged to be farther along in assembling the kind of national network necessary to sustain a long, expensive campaign for his party’s nomination to succeed President Bush.

At a point in the election cycle when policy positions may be less important than general impressions, the signal Mr. McCain is seeking to send to the Republican Party is that anyone who wants a place on his bandwagon should jump on now.

“We are a party that gravitates toward front-runners,” said Rick Davis, who was Mr. McCain’s presidential campaign manager in 2000.

Mr. McCain, of Arizona, has long had a constellation of loyal friends and advisers, some of whom date to his years as a naval pilot and prisoner of war in Vietnam, not to mention his presidential bid in 2000.

But as he has tried to claim the mantle of Mr. Bush’s natural successor, Mr. McCain has expanded his orbit to encompass supporters who have been part of Mr. Bush’s circle, and others who have not previously backed the senator.

His still-informal network includes Richard L. Armitage, the former deputy secretary of state; John A. Thain, chief executive of the New York Stock Exchange; and Sig Rogich, who directed the advertising for the 1988 and 1992 presidential campaigns of Mr. Bush’s father.

He is reaching out to Christian conservatives, who helped sink his 2000 presidential bid, by enlisting the aid of figures like Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. of Utah and former Senator Dan Coats of Indiana, both of whom have strong evangelical followings.

His growing kitchen cabinet spans an array of issues and backgrounds, and includes James Jay Baker, a former lobbyist for the National Rifle Association; Niall Ferguson, a historian at Harvard; and Barry McCaffrey, who was the drug czar under President Bill Clinton.

There is as yet no formal policy council and no regular meetings of the McCain brain trust, aides said. They cautioned that the senator consults widely and that some of those enlisted as advisers or supporters might not play official roles in his campaign, if he decides to run.

Some figures listed as advisers by McCain aides, like Colin L. Powell, the former secretary of state, have been silent in public about their preference, and it is not clear how involved they may become.

Yet the scale and breadth of the list suggest how much time, effort and care Mr. McCain is investing in preparing for a presidential campaign, using the lessons of his race in 2000 and his subsequent effort to rally the party around him.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Let the games begin!!!!

[Lincoln Republican]

As a comparison, John Kerry was the prohibitive Democratic front runner favorite in 2004, and his campaign for the nomination almost fell apart, although he was able to revive it, and go on to win the nomination.

One should be careful about who has front runner status too early in the game.

[Mr. Morden]

Sure, but the fact remains that *most* of the time, the guy who is the frontrunner one year out from the Iowa caucus ends up winning the nomination.  Bush and Gore were the frontrunners for their respective nominations as early as 1998, and they both got nominated.  Bob Dole was the frontrunner as early as 1994, and he got nominated.  All of them faced serious challenges to their candidacy at one point or another (it usually tends to happen right around the time the primaries are beginning), but they still made it.

That said, I don't think McCain is in nearly as commanding a position as, say, Bush was at the end of 1998.  In fact, I still think McCain has a less than 50/50 chance of getting the nomination.  But a better chance than any other individual candidate?  To that, I'd say yes.