Can Le pen win the Presidency?

[Samof94]

Can she win the presidency?

[mileslunn]

Yes but very unlikely.  In fact despite not likely making it to second round, Les Republicains probably have a better chance since if they can make second round, very likely win.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes she *can*, but they need nearly all the cards to fall their way. So on balance its unlikely.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Can Trump discover a cure for cancer? In theory, yes. In practice, no.

Le Pen's chances may be a little better but the principle is the same.

[vitoNova]

It seems she blew her load running against that neoliberal banker guy.  In the immediate afterglow of Trump's victory, no less, and when all the cool kids were experimenting with populism.

If I recall, that election wasn't even particularly close either.

So voted 'No.'  

[Lord Halifax]

It seems she blew her load running against that neoliberal banker guy.  In the immediate afterglow of Trump's victory, no less, and when all the cool kids were experimenting with populism.

If I recall, that election wasn't even particularly close either.

So voted 'No.'  

A French election is very unlikely to be influence by "global tendencies".

[President Johnson]

Very unlikely. Maybe in another five years and she faces a very weak opponent. However, I'm not sure whether she can actually run another time after 2022. I mean, she's been running for quite a while now.

[brucejoel99]

It's unlikely, but it's certainly not an impossibility either. It'd probably require sh*t really hitting the fan, though.

[NewYorkExpress]

If she's facing Macron again, she's probably a narrow favorite, but the race could go either way.

If she faces someone else (Macron finishes in third or worse in the First Round), she loses, and it won't even be close.

[Pick Up the Phone]

If she's facing Macron again, she's probably a narrow favorite, but the race could go either way.

Why? Macron should be clearly favored in a rematch.

[NewYorkExpress]

If she's facing Macron again, she's probably a narrow favorite, but the race could go either way.

Why? Macron should be clearly favored in a rematch.

Macron seems to be really unpopular. I admit, that the most likely scenario (if he runs again), is that he doesn't make it out of the first round, not him going head-to-head with Le Pen again.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

If she's facing Macron again, she's probably a narrow favorite, but the race could go either way.

Why? Macron should be clearly favored in a rematch.

Macron seems to be really unpopular. I admit, that the most likely scenario (if he runs again), is that he doesn't make it out of the first round, not him going head-to-head with Le Pen again.

He isn't doing all that bad on tbe opinion polls for the, admittedly ridiculously low ,standards of recent french presidents. Especially when compared to"4%"  Hollande and Sarkozy

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In theory yes, in practice, yes it's possible but the odds are quite low. This is Le Pen we're talking about, after all.

[CumbrianLefty]

If she's facing Macron again, she's probably a narrow favorite, but the race could go either way.

Why? Macron should be clearly favored in a rematch.

Macron seems to be really unpopular. I admit, that the most likely scenario (if he runs again), is that he doesn't make it out of the first round, not him going head-to-head with Le Pen again.

He isn't that popular, but MLP is if anything more unpopular.

[Santander]

One of my favorite political quotes:

"Money and the ethnic vote"

[Geoffrey Howe]

I'll quote from what I said before:

I find this highly unlikely. I think it's pretty clear that she and Macron will make it to the second round. Then at least half the country will hate her more than Macron. You have the issue of turnout, and certainly his victory will be less convincing than last time, but I think three things are working in his favour:

1) Although you won't hear it here, he is very popular...by French standards. He has a floor of about 30% approval, which is much higher than the previous two presidents. This is more extraordinary than it might seem: it means he is likely to be the first president in power to be re-elected since de Gaulle.

2) He is polling just over 55% against Le Pen. I think a lot of these people say the won't vote Macron now, but in a year's time, when push comes to shove, they will; also if there is another debate he will probably trounce her and convince some people. (For example, I know someone last time who claims he was going to spoil his ballot and decided to vote Macron after the debate.) The fact is that Le Pen is not very good with details and often makes her side sound quite silly when pressed. I have heard some people who are sympathetic to the FN complain about this.

3) Lots of people who really dislike him, even if they will not vote for him, are not actually going to vote for Le Pen. There are people like this on Atlas. Whereas if it were another candidate, they might actively vote against Macron.

Though in 1981 a François Mitterrand was on his third bid for the presidency...