Rove says Republicans lost AT MOST 8-10 House Seats

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15269153/

[Alcon]

Once and again:

California 2000 strategy.

[Nym90]

Obviously they are saying the things they have to say. If they came out and admitted the reality of the situation, they'd immediately lose any small chance they have of retaining the House.

You see the same kind of pscyhological thing with the "Santorum will win" crowd. Obviously Santorum's most ardent backers have to convince themselves of that in order for him to have any possibility whatsoever of pulling it off. If they stop believing it, they'll stop working hard, and he indeed will have no chance. It's the power of positive thought.

I do find it quite telling, however, that not even Karl Rove is willing to go so far as to say that the Republicans will break even or gain seats. Even he's being forced to admit the Democrats are going to make gains.

[merseysider]

If I were Rove, I would be forecasting 50-60 losses so that when the R's lose 25 it actually looks like a good result.

It also makes your opponents complacent so they don't campaign so hard and their supporters are less likely to come out and vote.

That's what we do here in Britain anyway!!!!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If I were Rove, I would be forecasting 50-60 losses so that when the R's lose 25 it actually looks like a good result.

It also makes your opponents complacent so they don't campaign so hard and their supporters are less likely to come out and vote.

That's what we do here in Britain anyway!!!!

Conversely, hey there's 5% odds on TradeSports that the Democrats don't gain any house seats. That could happen, you know.
http://www.tradesports.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?evID=61888&eventSelect=61888&updateList=true&showExpired=false

[Keystone Phil]

.

You see the same kind of pscyhological thing with the "Santorum will win" crowd. Obviously Santorum's most ardent backers have to convince themselves of that in order for him to have any possibility whatsoever of pulling it off. If they stop believing it, they'll stop working hard, and he indeed will have no chance. It's the power of positive thought.

That helped him win in 1990, 1992 and 1994 - all races he wasn't expected to win.

[Keystone Phil]

If I were Rove, I would be forecasting 50-60 losses so that when the R's lose 25 it actually looks like a good result.

I get your point but then turnout for the GOP would fall big time.

[bullmoose88]

Once and again:

California 2000 strategy.

No, its different. Bush wasn't expected to win california, it was one of those "look he did semi-decently."

This doesn't make sense for Rove, who has always been a "low expectations kind of guy." It would make more sense for Rove to quietly claim a huge loss than to proclaim a type of loss (a quasi victory) which would keep the GOP in control.

Something smells fishy.

[tulip]

Something is always fishy with Rove. LOL.

[Alcon]

Once and again:

California 2000 strategy.

No, its different. Bush wasn't expected to win california, it was one of those "look he did semi-decently."

This doesn't make sense for Rove, who has always been a "low expectations kind of guy." It would make more sense for Rove to quietly claim a huge loss than to proclaim a type of loss (a quasi victory) which would keep the GOP in control.

Something smells fishy.

Rove isn't dumb.  He knew that, if California was in play, he wouldn't need to win California anyway.  It was either greed on his part in garnering a huge electoral win or, more likely, an attempt at painting a rosier picture to energise the base.  I suspect the latter.  Which I think he is doing here, now.

There's no reason for Rove to be pessimistic now.  Unlike in 2002 or 2004, there's a very, very good chance that the GOP could be clobbered.

[Jake]

Hmm, you've got at least three sure pick-ups (DeLay, Foley, and Kolbe's seats), leaving around 20 super competitive races where Rove thinks the GOP will lose only 5-7 seats? Sounds a bit far fetched, but could happen.

[Nym90]

.

You see the same kind of pscyhological thing with the "Santorum will win" crowd. Obviously Santorum's most ardent backers have to convince themselves of that in order for him to have any possibility whatsoever of pulling it off. If they stop believing it, they'll stop working hard, and he indeed will have no chance. It's the power of positive thought.

That helped him win in 1990, 1992 and 1994 - all races he wasn't expected to win.

I'm not knocking it at all as a strategy. It does work. Helps to keep the base energized, and obviously that's a requirement in order to win.

It's just important to differentiate between a psychological tactic and a true prediction.

[Keystone Phil]

Once and again:

California 2000 strategy.

What was that?

The Bush campaign tried to play up their chances in California to distract Gore's people.

[dazzleman]

.

You see the same kind of pscyhological thing with the "Santorum will win" crowd. Obviously Santorum's most ardent backers have to convince themselves of that in order for him to have any possibility whatsoever of pulling it off. If they stop believing it, they'll stop working hard, and he indeed will have no chance. It's the power of positive thought.

That helped him win in 1990, 1992 and 1994 - all races he wasn't expected to win.

I'm not knocking it at all as a strategy. It does work. Helps to keep the base energized, and obviously that's a requirement in order to win.

It's just important to differentiate between a psychological tactic and a true prediction.

Yes, I think you're right, Eric.