Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024

[Zinneke]

Magnette announces the PS will be in opposition everywhere. Great news, no PS for 5 years, finally, and it also screws MR at Brussels-Regional level, as they'll have to include the ecologists and scrap their pro-car plans.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Magnette announces the PS will be in opposition everywhere. Great news, no PS for 5 years, finally, and it also screws MR at Brussels-Regional level, as they'll have to include the ecologists and scrap their pro-car plans.

Hmm it would surprise me if Ecolo actually also want to do that. If PS doesn't want to govern, than why would Ecolo do so who suffer of all belgian parties the biggest loss yesterday, much more so than PS.

Ecolo should also choose for opposition everywhere.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

If Ecolo rejects which they should, than they're completely screwed.

PTB has called for PS and Ecolo to make a left wing majority government, but that's not gonna happen because of the PS and Ecolo losses.

I really think it'd be stupid for Ecolo to enter government with MR, after this historic loss. Technically MR+Ecolo+Défi+LE is possible but they need all four, it would be a trainwreck of a government.

Brussels might enter a political crisis tbf.

They might regret not letting Wilmes run on the Brussels lists a bit more...

[LAKISYLVANIA]

As a revelation, Ahidar would like to join the government in Brussels, he told our colleagues from Bruzz last night. For this he looks at PVDA and Groen, among others. He is less interested in working with the MR, which is also one of the big winners in Brussels. As list pusher Michel Dardenne puts it: "MR will have to let go of a few important principles, mainly their positions on the headscarf and slaughter without stunning, but the rest is negotiable."

Ahidar wants a government with Groen and PVDA in Brussels.

Even there some kind of issue

Ahidar+Groen+PVDA+Vooruit is possible but would Vooruit after their loss in Brussels and with Ahidar being expelled/leaving Vooruit want to cooperate with Ahidar. And PVDA wouldn't even be needed. If not

The alternative is Vivaldi (Groen-Vooruit-VLD-CD&V). If VLD rejects because of their election loss, N-VA could be an option too to replace VLD. But not sure if Groen really wants that.

Kinda lol though given it feels like Brussels looks to be the most complex government formation this time around.

[Zinneke]

Yeah like I said that's the only dampner on an otherwise excellent night for MR. They cannot really implement their policies in Brussels, when the whole strategy from what i heard was for them to be able to advertise themselves and Brussels as the epicenter of change to their new populist-loving recruits on making the place more car friendly, getting the photo op of them removing GoodMove infrastructure for example. PS is also anti-GoodMove but they are going to make MR suffer for months on end, potentially demanding MR draw up pre election coalitions in the local elections. This would be a great opportunity to scrap the 19 communes and the Dutch speaking electoral college as it's patently obvious both are just hindering the will of the Brussels electorate. But it won't happen because the greed of the median Belgian politician is too important.

I don't think Ahidar will be involved in government. He is not as bad as Denk in the NL or some Green councillors in the UK, as he does actually understand and work on Brussels local issues next to his pandering to Muslim voters. But most Flemish parties will not want to be associated with him and Groen and him are at odds over goodMove. He's basically only slightly more acceptable than PVDA.

Brussels is definitely going to be the most interesting negotiation.

[Lechasseur]

So, what are your predictions for the composition of the next federal government?

I'm guessing it will be NVA+MR+CD&V+LE+Vooruit (the Arizona coalition; basically a centre-right government but with Vooruit replacing Open VLD), which would hold 81 of the 150 seats in parliament

And who do you think ends up as PM?

[Lechasseur]

It's also interesting, I think this is the first time (at least in living memory) that the Francophone Christian democrats (even if they no longer explicitly refer to themselves as such) have more seats than the Flemish Christian democrats

[LAKISYLVANIA]

So, what are your predictions for the composition of the next federal government?

I'm guessing it will be NVA+MR+CD&V+LE+Vooruit (basically a centre-right government but with Vooruit replacing Open VLD), which would hold 81 of the 150 seats in parliament

Does this sound right to you?

And who do you think ends up as PM? I've heard talk of both Bart De Wever and Sophie Wilmes being contenders

It's actually quite easy (as it stands now), unless one of the parties makes a sharp turn or disagrees with the other parties over something.

Flemish: N-VA+CD&V+Vooruit
Walloon: LE+MR
Federal: N-VA+CD&V+Vooruit+LE+MR

All were winners of their elections. And for the first time in quite some time, the federal government would have a majority in both parts of the country too.

Both PS and Open VLD have already said they will be in opposition too making it easier for MR and Vooruit to enter government without their counterparts across the language border.

LE and MR already said they're fine with BDW as Prime Minister, though of course they'll all negotiate for something in this government. Negotiations will still be about state reform, Vooruit having to secure social security and care for young & old etc.

[Lechasseur]

So, what are your predictions for the composition of the next federal government?

I'm guessing it will be NVA+MR+CD&V+LE+Vooruit (basically a centre-right government but with Vooruit replacing Open VLD), which would hold 81 of the 150 seats in parliament

Does this sound right to you?

And who do you think ends up as PM? I've heard talk of both Bart De Wever and Sophie Wilmes being contenders

It's actually quite easy (as it stands now), unless one of the parties makes a sharp turn or disagrees with the other parties over something.

Flemish: N-VA+CD&V+Vooruit
Walloon: LE+MR
Federal: N-VA+CD&V+Vooruit+LE+MR

Both PS and Open VLD have already said they will be in opposition too making it easier for MR and Vooruit to enter government without their counterparts across the language border.

Yeah that's what I was thinking as well, the coalitions generally seem pretty clear this time except in Brussels

[LAKISYLVANIA]

So, what are your predictions for the composition of the next federal government?

I'm guessing it will be NVA+MR+CD&V+LE+Vooruit (basically a centre-right government but with Vooruit replacing Open VLD), which would hold 81 of the 150 seats in parliament

Does this sound right to you?

And who do you think ends up as PM? I've heard talk of both Bart De Wever and Sophie Wilmes being contenders

It's actually quite easy (as it stands now), unless one of the parties makes a sharp turn or disagrees with the other parties over something.

Flemish: N-VA+CD&V+Vooruit
Walloon: LE+MR
Federal: N-VA+CD&V+Vooruit+LE+MR

Both PS and Open VLD have already said they will be in opposition too making it easier for MR and Vooruit to enter government without their counterparts across the language border.

Yeah that's what I was thinking as well, the coalitions generally seem pretty clear this time except in Brussels

Yeah government formation might go faster than usual maybe, unlike last times basically lol. But Brussels seems a recipe for a crisis, because Ecolo can't really enter government with these numbers after such a historic loss.

One of Ecolo's chairs failed to get elected, and they only got 2 seats as one of Ecolo's elected persons was on the Brussels joint list with Groen where Tinne Van der Straeten will swear in as a Groen deputy.

[Lechasseur]

So, what are your predictions for the composition of the next federal government?

I'm guessing it will be NVA+MR+CD&V+LE+Vooruit (basically a centre-right government but with Vooruit replacing Open VLD), which would hold 81 of the 150 seats in parliament

Does this sound right to you?

And who do you think ends up as PM? I've heard talk of both Bart De Wever and Sophie Wilmes being contenders

It's actually quite easy (as it stands now), unless one of the parties makes a sharp turn or disagrees with the other parties over something.

Flemish: N-VA+CD&V+Vooruit
Walloon: LE+MR
Federal: N-VA+CD&V+Vooruit+LE+MR

Both PS and Open VLD have already said they will be in opposition too making it easier for MR and Vooruit to enter government without their counterparts across the language border.

Yeah that's what I was thinking as well, the coalitions generally seem pretty clear this time except in Brussels

Yeah government formation might go faster than usual maybe, unlike last times basically lol. But Brussels seems a recipe for a crisis, because Ecolo can't really enter government with these numbers after such a historic loss.

One of Ecolo's chairs failed to get elected, and they only got 2 seats as one of Ecolo's elected persons was on the Brussels joint list with Groen where Tinne Van der Straeten will swear in as a Groen deputy.

Hypothetically, would it be possible for Brussels and only Brussels to have snap regional elections? In the event a government can't be formed? My understanding is no

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I'm fine with the results, i would've signed for this result in both Flanders and Brussels if it was presented to me the day before. We got our seat in West Flanders I cared for, and this is a good result. All other parties are fine, Groen suffers a loss, but isn't completely wiped out. OVLD suffers a big loss which is good. I don't like them. N-VA i'd like to see smaller but really it was always going to be them or VB and they probably were saved by some OVLD transfers towards them too. Maybe it would be better if CD&V indeed makes somewhat of a shift towards the right to try to take some right-wingers back. And Conner Rousseau might also be needed with his populist tint.

Only Wallonia is a bit disappointing, especially the overall picture. Becuase PTB's loss is minor and it just ended up being a loss of 1 seat and for the Walloon parliament, it doesn't really matter to me. But the losses of the entire left is yeah disappointing. PS and esp. Ecolo got their asses kicked, the latter to a historic proportion (transfers to MR and LE i assume). MR seemed to also eat into Défi and the other margin. Part of it is that with persons like GLB, Prévot, Wilmés, they have more popular politicians than last time around in their ranks. And the center/right/protest parties were even more divided last time, even if there was still Chez Nous and N-VA running lists this time. But overall there was less of an appeal for protesting voting compared to last time, which also did hurt the PTB a bit, since i feel their excellent result in 2019 in part also is explained by that (and also that they didn't enter lists in Luxembourg).

In cities they mostly are status quo or mild losses, i've checked. Some cities like 1% more, other cities 3% loss, so it's status quo/consolidation/mild losses overall. But for the left at large, it was a horrible day there.

And the left also needs to learn to cooperate better, because Faoud Ahidad, a list Anticapitalistes running for European elections etc, Viva Palestina's list all hurt the left at large and do the opposite thing as intended. Something that not only the Walloons must learn, but also the French and other ppl in Europe.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

So, what are your predictions for the composition of the next federal government?

I'm guessing it will be NVA+MR+CD&V+LE+Vooruit (basically a centre-right government but with Vooruit replacing Open VLD), which would hold 81 of the 150 seats in parliament

Does this sound right to you?

And who do you think ends up as PM? I've heard talk of both Bart De Wever and Sophie Wilmes being contenders

It's actually quite easy (as it stands now), unless one of the parties makes a sharp turn or disagrees with the other parties over something.

Flemish: N-VA+CD&V+Vooruit
Walloon: LE+MR
Federal: N-VA+CD&V+Vooruit+LE+MR

Both PS and Open VLD have already said they will be in opposition too making it easier for MR and Vooruit to enter government without their counterparts across the language border.

Yeah that's what I was thinking as well, the coalitions generally seem pretty clear this time except in Brussels

Yeah government formation might go faster than usual maybe, unlike last times basically lol. But Brussels seems a recipe for a crisis, because Ecolo can't really enter government with these numbers after such a historic loss.

One of Ecolo's chairs failed to get elected, and they only got 2 seats as one of Ecolo's elected persons was on the Brussels joint list with Groen where Tinne Van der Straeten will swear in as a Groen deputy.

Hypothetically, would it be possible for Brussels and only Brussels to have snap regional elections? In the event a government can't be formed? My understanding is no

I don't know.

there isn't really a tradition of snap elections here and i don't think it has ever happened for regional governments, however it has happened for federal parliament and been considered a lot more often too, but the problem is that the parties usually don't want snap election since this likely hurts them and would help parties such as VB and PVDA-PTB, since this usually backfires. For the same reason referenda are also kinda taboo.

__

For flemish parliament it seems the answer is no, so i assume the same applies for Brussels and Wallonia. They cannot disband parliament so elections cannot be held until 2029.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Theoretically though, i guess if the crisis is unresolveable there might be a minority government but they would need approval of Ecolo or PS. Ecolo might simply withdraw government confidence in case MR does something they don't want, such as getting rid of the GoodMove plan.

I would really advise both PS and Ecolo to not go in government whatever the cost, if needed a minority gvment with their approval for a weak MR-LE led government could do the thing, let them crash the trainwreck or show incompetence on the Brussels level to try to boost leftist support for 2029. Though they should wait after the local elections of this year before they do that, because you don't want their honeymoon period leading them to a loss there as well (as well as disapproval for allowing a minority gvment, and for a crisis to develop, you need quite some time, a few months or a few years).

[Zinneke]

So, what are your predictions for the composition of the next federal government?

I'm guessing it will be NVA+MR+CD&V+LE+Vooruit (basically a centre-right government but with Vooruit replacing Open VLD), which would hold 81 of the 150 seats in parliament

Does this sound right to you?

And who do you think ends up as PM? I've heard talk of both Bart De Wever and Sophie Wilmes being contenders

It's actually quite easy (as it stands now), unless one of the parties makes a sharp turn or disagrees with the other parties over something.

Flemish: N-VA+CD&V+Vooruit
Walloon: LE+MR
Federal: N-VA+CD&V+Vooruit+LE+MR

Both PS and Open VLD have already said they will be in opposition too making it easier for MR and Vooruit to enter government without their counterparts across the language border.

Yeah that's what I was thinking as well, the coalitions generally seem pretty clear this time except in Brussels

Yeah government formation might go faster than usual maybe, unlike last times basically lol. But Brussels seems a recipe for a crisis, because Ecolo can't really enter government with these numbers after such a historic loss.

One of Ecolo's chairs failed to get elected, and they only got 2 seats as one of Ecolo's elected persons was on the Brussels joint list with Groen where Tinne Van der Straeten will swear in as a Groen deputy.

Hypothetically, would it be possible for Brussels and only Brussels to have snap regional elections? In the event a government can't be formed? My understanding is no

No there are fixed terms for regional parliaments.

But if they negotiate a state reform at Federal level that revises Brussels status...they may be able to make an exception. I knew we (Brussels) would get re-fcked by the provincials again. It'll be more brazen this time, because some of us dared to vote Groen in the Flemish college and spoil their party.

State reform will be hard without PS though.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

State reform will be hard without PS though.

Yeah, if MR and LE want to destroy theirselves they def have to go along with state reform. Esp since GLB campaigned on pro-Belgium platform and always was against state reform, something PS was more open too (and imo a mistake).

[Zinneke]

State reform will be hard without PS though.

Yeah, if MR and LE want to destroy theirselves they def have to go along with state reform. Esp since GLB campaigned on pro-Belgium platform and always was against state reform, something PS was more open too (and imo a mistake).

PS was never publicly open to state reform, it was just assumed that if both PS and N-VA werre "incontournable" due to how VB and PTB were doing (just below 1/3rd), this time they really would have to negotiate with each other, and over state reform.

I imagine we'll still get a negotiation on state reform to hopefully make things more efficient, but also likely to turn Brussels into De Wevers ex-pipe dream, which is a vassal state co-managed by Flanders and Wallonia. I'm pretty sure the center-right Francophones will back this because they've seen their potential reforms there get fcked by the Flemish electoral college, but hilariously in a different way that they thought. And the Flemish Right are also reeling from the fact that they won't have the desired results or impact in Brussels, even though Dutch as a language here is growing.

The state reform though should focus on scrapping and merging communes, police zones, Provinces, the Community/Region split, an overall simplification of everything. I won't hold my breath.

[Zinneke]

MR have gone from 20 seats to 19 at Federal level because Budget Minister Alexia Bertrand, who was elected on the joint MR-VLD list in Brussels with a pretty excellent score, will take her oath in Flemish and sit with VLD. She is notoriously at odds with GLB and decided to focus on VLD but also a (rare) Francophone Fleming, so it makes some sense.

Also note Tina Vanderstraeten from Groen managed to leapfrog ECOLO candidate Gilles Vande burren to obtain the second seat of the Ecolo-Groen list...I'm kind of disappointed by this because her record as a Federal minister was pretty terrible. Anyway Ecolo-Groen sit as 1 group at Federal level unlike MR-VLD so it doesn't change much.

[Zinneke]

Again take this with a pinch of salt because Belgians can't poll but here are the vote transfers between parties in Francophonia:



Kind of confirms MR mostly maximised it's vote via the right wing populist parties that didn't run this time and right wing protest voters that smelt PS blood. Les Engagés benefit from other traditional party voters being disappointed with PS and especially Ecolo

[Zinneke]

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/kies24/uitslagen/#kamer/het_rijk/belgie/kaart

For those interested in seeing some maps, Laki showed me that the VRT have already done vote share maps per party on the Flemish side. Shame it doesnt really have a scale and the colouring for yellow parties in particular doesnt come across well.