Three quick questions about Gore and Obama

[Mr. Morden]

What is the probability that Al Gore will run for president in '08?

What is the probability that Barack Obama will run for president in '08?

*IF* Hillary Clinton, Al Gore, AND Barack Obama were all to run for the '08 nomination, how would you rank them in terms of their likelihood of winning the nomination?

My tentative answers are:

probability of Gore running: 20%
probability of Obama running: 45%
most likely to win the nomination if Clinton, Gore, and Obama all ran:
1) Gore
2) Clinton
3) Obama

So yes, I think that if Gore were to run, he'd actually become the frontrunner.  But I'm guessing there's only about a 1 in 5 chance that he'll run, which is why I'd currently consider Hillary to be the frontrunner (as the chances that *she* will run are at least 85% or so).

However, I'm very uncertain about all of the above, which is why I started this thread.  I want to see how other folks out there see this.

[elcorazon]

Gore - likelihood of running: 32.5%
Obama - likelihood of running: 73.7%

If Clinton Gore and Obama run, then here's my thought:

1. Gore - will benefit from the anti-Hillary factor; will make Obama look more like an amateur
2. Obama - could sneak in as the alternative from the establishment, especially if Gore falters
3. Clinton - may change some minds eventually, but as of today I just think too many democrats don't like her and will be looking for alternatives; her poll power today has more to do with the fact that no one knows who's going to run yet than anything else.

[gorkay]

Gore: about 25%
Obama: probably about 50%

If all three ran for the nomination: 1. Gore; 2. Clinton; 3. Obama. Gore would immediately become the focus of the stop-Hillary movement if he ran. Of course, Obama might as well, but he's iffier as a candidate.

[Lincoln Republican]

Gore should run, may win the nomination, and if he does, he should pick Obama for VP.

Gore picked the first one of the Jewish faith for VP on a major party ticket, and by picking Obama in '08 would be the first one to pick an African American for VP on a major party ticket.