🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 4.0 (Madeira snap regional election: 26 May 2024)

[Mike88]

Income tax cuts: CHEGA, once again, supports the PS proposal and the Government loses in Parliament.

https://twitter.com/cnnportugal/status/1798298767638085918

CHEGA lets the PS proposal pass to lower the IRS

With the dead-lock between PSD and PS regarding income tax cuts, the PSD wanted tax cuts until the 8th bracket, while the PS' proposal was until the 6th, Parliament voted this morning the proposals, and the result was the expected. CHEGA sided with the PS and leftwing parties and let the PS proposal pass, while PSD, CDS and IL voted in favour of the government's proposal. The PSD immediately accused the PS of "collusion" with CHEGA saying we now have a "Cherigonça", while the PS reacted by saying that negociations were made but a positive result wasn't reached. CHEGA said that the PS' proposal was better, so they sided with them.

[Mike88]

The EP election campaign has now entered its last 48 hours, and like I wrote in the EP election thread, it has been boring and uneventful. Beyond the lame "cheap shots" between PS and AD, the campaign has been overshadowed by national events and the constant government announcements of the last few weeks. Anyway, here's the TV political braodcasts of the main parties:

PS - Socialist Party:

AD - Democratic Alliance (PSD/CDS/PPM)

BE - Left Bloc

PAN - People-Animals-Nature

L - Livre

IL - Liberal Initiative

Couldn't find CDU's and CHEGA's tv broadcasts. But, from the minor parties, ADN's, National Democratic Alternative, gets the prize:

[Mike88]

Also, police unions and the government held another meeting to try to sort out the question of the risk subsidy for police officers and guards. As expected, unions didn't like the government's proposal, now up to 300 euros per month to be paid by phases until 2026, and at least 3 unions abandoned the meeting. The meeting with the remaining unions ended with no agreement near midnight;

Público newspaper reports that police unions seem to be splitting because of the government negotiations. Some unions abandoned the meeting with the Internal Affairs minister, Margarida Blasco, as the minister rejected giving police officers and guards the same amount of subsidy of the Judiciary Police, which was what triggered these protests last January, but others are now open to receive bellow the Judiciary Police and propose 400 euros in risk subsidy. The minister says she cannot go higher than 300, but she's set to have a meeting with PM Montenegro to settle the matter.

In another area of labour protests, the Government rechead a deal with Court employees unions and strikes in Courts of Law will now stop, after nearly 1 year and a half of strikes that delayed and/or canceled a lot of trials and other Court actions. In the deal between Justice minister, Rita Júdice, and the Court employees unions, workers will get a 3.5% increase in their salary supplement, from 10% to 13.5%, and it will be paid 12 months per year, against the current 11 months. The unions say the increase is not much but that it allows them to negociate further wage increases with the revision of the status of judicial officials. However, the unions point that they will continue to press the government via negotiations.

[Battista Minola 1616]

I notice that the LIVRE ad is the only one without subtitles, which seems pretty out of character. I also notice that the AD ad is the only one that addresses the viewer in the third person, which is less surprising (if I had to bet in advance on which party would have the most formal communication, it would be them) but still funny. My other takeaway from the ads is that IL once again hampers its message with ridiculous details, like that Das Kapital skit.

[Mike88]

I notice that the LIVRE ad is the only one without subtitles, which seems pretty out of character. I also notice that the AD ad is the only one that addresses the viewer in the third person, which is less surprising (if I had to bet in advance on which party would have the most formal communication, it would be them) but still funny. My other takeaway from the ads is that IL once again hampers its message with ridiculous details, like that Das Kapital skit.

Didn't realize that, in fact that's odd because all of the awareness regarding deef people. That detail of Das Kapital is clearly a jab towards the leftwing parties, mainly BE, which polls suggest that is near the Liberals.

Anyway, the day is being marked by the return of the Brazilian Twins case: Police conducts raids in the Health ministry and Santa Maria Hospital. Fomer Secretary of State for Health, Lacerda Sales, is now a formal suspect.

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1798651315264110900

Influence peddling and abuse of power. Lacerda Sales named formal suspect in twins case

Former Secretary of State for Health, Lacerda Sales (2018-22), has been named as a formal suspect in the Brazilian twins case, as police are conducting a series of raids in government buildings and in Santa Maria hospital in Lisbon. The police suspects that Sales committed crimes of influence peddling and abuse of power. This announcement was made on the same day that Sales was expected to be heard in a Parliamentary Committee regarding this case, but, a few days ago, he asked for it to be postponed due to "professional reasons". President Marcelo's son, Nuno Rebelo de Sousa, is, so far, not under the police radar according to reports.

The timing of the raids, just hours away from the end of the EP election campaign, is again raising eyebrows.

[Mike88]

Madeira political situation: Speaker of the regional Parliament only elected in the 3rd ballot.

In a situation that mirrored the one faced by the national Parliament two months ago, when MPs had difficulty in electing a Speaker, the Speaker of the Madeira regional assembly was only elected at the 3rd ballot. José Manuel Rodrigues, CDS, only got the necessary 24 votes in the 3rd round of voting and actually "lost" to the PS candidate, Sancha Campanela, in the 1st ballot, 22 to 20 votes. The motion of confidence in Albuquerque's 4th government will be held, I believe, late next week and could be a very complicated vote.

[Mike88]

Brazilian twins case: Judge wanted to investigate President Marcelo, but the Supreme Court blocked it.

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1798845443318898804

Case of the twins. Supreme Court of Justice refused to investigate Marcelo

After yesterday's police raids regarding the Brazilian twins case, that made former health secretary, Lacerda Sales, a formal suspect, the media reports that the Judge presiding the investigation wanted to investigate President Marcelo because of his son's involvement in the case. This request was sent to the Supreme Court and, according to the press, was what delayed the whole process. The Supreme Court ultimately rejected the request, ruling that, on the eyes of the Prosecutor, the President is not a suspect of any crime, meaning that even that some evidence is found against the President, it could be declared "invalid" and thrown away. The same report says that the President's son, Nuno Rebelo de Sousa, is set to be the next target of the investigation, but because he lives in Brazil, the police could open ask for the colaboration of the Brazilian police.

[Mike88]

The Health minister, Ana Paula Martins, spent the night in hospital after suffering a car accident:

Health minister, Ana Paula Martins, suffered a car accident at a highway near Lisbon, late yesterday afternoon. She, her chauffeur, and a staff member were sent to hospital and only had minor injuries but, for precaution, doctors decided to maintain them in observation and spent the night in hospital.

[Mike88]

The European election results are tricky, tricky, tricky... Not sure how will they impact the national scene.

[Rikschard]

This mobility vote thing sucks for electoral analysis and map comparisons between elections

[Mike88]

This mobility vote thing sucks for electoral analysis and map comparisons between elections

Yeah, there are some examples that are mind boggling. Take Carvalhal parish in Grândola, Setúbal district, where a lot of holiday resorts are located. 5 years ago, 25% turnout; this year, 61% turnout. And the results: in 2019, 68-18 in favour of the left; in 2024, 61-34 in favour of the right. Vila Nova de Milfontes, in Beja district, is also a curious example. And the coastal line of the Algarve, from Lagos to Faro, clearly shows an increase in turnout and a big surge of especially center-right parties, AD and IL.

[Mike88]

Reactions of the EP election results in the national scene:

- The media is portraying the results as a "tie", but pointing that the PS edged out AD by the narrowest of margins, by just 38,000 votes. This result "reinforces" Pedro Nuno Santos leadership in the PS, but, the very narrow margin over AD and the further weakning of the left-wing parties (BE, PCP, Livre, PAN), makes it very difficult for the Socialists to "dream" in some kind of crisis to bring down Montenegro's government. Newspapers op-eds this morning point exactly to this;

- The AD had a somewhat bittersweet result, as gathering 31% was not bad, but after the "wave" of policy and strategy announcements of the last few weeks, the coalition was expecting much more. Looking at the result, the Liberals (IL) strong showing may have hurt the AD in younger voters, and in a very tight contest, every vote lost is fatal. Montenegro, however, diverted attentions by announcing that he will give his full support for António Costa's bid as President of the European Council, and Costa himself, while debuting his new post, and could we say temporary?, as pundit on CMTV, basically said he's in the race;

- CHEGA was the main loser of the election. The results were really dismal and it showed the weakness of CHEGA's voter base, as it's dependent on voters who don't normally vote. Plus, recent actions, like the constant support of PS policies in Parliament, may have infuriated some voters, which either abstained or voted for other rightwing parties. Could this bad result change the party's strategy? Like I wrote above, pundits argue that if the PS lead is too narrow for them to "dream" of a crisis, CHEGA's bad result just shows how risky it could be to create a crisis;

The front pages of today's major newspapers:
https://twitter.com/CapasJornais/status/1800066810017984883

Jornal de Notícias: "Tie on the center. Changes of the right"

https://twitter.com/CapasJornais/status/1800066809313345738

Correio da Manhã: "Portugal gives lesson of stability to Europe"

https://twitter.com/CapasJornais/status/1800066809388794148

Público: "Far-right advances in Europe. PS with minimal vengeance"

[CumbrianLefty]

CHEGA still improved on their 2019 showing though, and seem to be clutching hard at that straw.

[Mike88]

CHEGA still improved on their 2019 showing though, and seem to be clutching hard at that straw.

Sure, they got basically nothing in 2019, but Ventura, after the March results, pressed hard that next time, meaning the EP election, was to win it and become the largest party. He didn't achieve that and got just half of what he had in March, while PS, AD and IL increased their shares. It was a game of expectations and Ventura failed badly.

[Mike88]

Madeira political scene: CHEGA changes its mind, again, and now says "No" to Albuquerque and wants the PSD to pick a new candidate.

If in the electoral campaign, CHEGA said "no is no" to Albuquerque, but on election night the party's candidate was open to talks "bill by bill" with the PSD, now they are saying "No" to Albuquerque and Ventura is even making an ultimatum to the PSD: Ditch Albuquerque or we will vote against the Government. PS and JPP have already said they would vote against Albuquerque, but they only have 20 votes, while PSD+CDS have 21. Albuquerque needs at least the abstention of PAN, CHEGA and IL in order to have its government approved in the regional parliament.

How will this "soap opera" end? After 20 June we'll know.