Why can't Nevada be the tipping point state in this election?

[holtridge]

Why can't Nevada be to 2024 as Florida was to 2000?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Too few electoral votes.

[soundchaser]

I think it's unlikely, given the geographical placement of Nevada relative to other states, their mail-in voting laws and general counting idiosyncrasies, and the relative closeness of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

It's not impossible, but it would have to be in a scenario where Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Arizona have been decided, but Michigan hasn't. That seems difficult to envision.

[Rand]

It should be because its southernmost tip is pointy. Seriously, try to set the state upright on a flat surface. It will tip over.

[holtridge]

It should be because its southernmost tip is pointy. Seriously, try to set the state upright on a flat surface. It will tip over.

Rand you never cease to amaze.

[holtridge]

Too few electoral votes.

It could have been in 2000 if Florida had gone first for either candidate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It still is it will be the tipping pt lol do you know polls lie

[Minnesota Mike]

Too few electoral votes.

It could have been in 2000 if Florida had gone first for either candidate.

I don't think you know the  definition of a tipping point state. It's not based on the order a state is called it's on the vote margin. In 2020 Wisconsin was the tipping point state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's the tipping pt state stop playing

[Ferguson97]

Who said it can’t be? Honestly, I  do think it’s going to be the deciding state.

[Randy Marsh]

Too few electoral votes.

It could have been in 2000 if Florida had gone first for either candidate.

I don't think you know the  definition of a tipping point state. It's not based on the order a state is called it's on the vote margin. In 2020 Wisconsin was the tipping point state.

Fun fact New Mexico was actually the closest state in 2000 by raw votes. Gore only won by 366

[Randy Marsh]

Who told you it can't be? It's the least likely of the 7 swing states because it has the fewest ECs but no reason it "can't" be the tipping point.

Give Trump a sun belt sweep (AZ + GA + NE-2) and it has a good chance of being the tipping point (those 3 + NV while losing rust belt = 269 EVs for Trump, which is a W because the house votes by state delegation)

[holtridge]

It may be the last state to be called after the election has already been decided.

[The Mikado]

This is the only realistic "NV tipping point" map.

[holtridge]

This is the only realistic "NV tipping point" map.

That could work but I doubt Michigan votes to the right of Nevada this year.

[DS0816]

Re: Why can't Nevada be the tipping point state in this election?

It can be.

Take the 2020 map of what carried for Donald Trump, who I think will win a 2024 Republican pickup for U.S. President, and apply the six “Swing States” as the pickups which bring him to 31 carried states, plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, and 312 electoral votes. Starting point are 25 carried states, plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, and 235 electoral votes.

Suggested order:

26. Wisconsin (cumulative 245 electoral votes)
27. Pennsylvania (cum. 264)
28. Nevada (cum. 270—Tipping-Point State)
29. Michigan (cum. 285)
30. Georgia (cum. 301)
31. Arizona (cum. 312)

I don’t think this will play out according to the listing. But it does answer you question as “yes”—that is possible.

[It’s so Joever]

This is the only realistic "NV tipping point" map.

Honestly this is basically just a black swing R and educated white suburbs swing D map

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is the only realistic "NV tipping point" map.

Did you see the MI poll it's D I have a sneaky suspicion about TX and NC vote D