MS-03: Pickering not seeking re-election

[RBH]

http://www.clarionledger.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070816/NEWS/70816045

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[Stranger in a strange land]

Apparently he's off to work on K Street.

Ronnie Shows waiting finally pays off!

Wait...isn't he the one from the Borat movie?

any idea why he resigned?

[Gabu]

Harry's gonna be happy when he sees this.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'm guessing this means that Thad Cochran is running for re-election?

[Conan]

Dems should kill for this seat. Even though this is a huge GOP seat, we should seriously try to win it for just the symbolism in gaining a seat in MS.

Edit: Actually it's quite impossible seeing how Shows only got 35% in 2002.

[RBH]

Dems should kill for this seat. Even though this is a huge GOP seat, we should seriously try to win it for just the symbolism in gaining a seat in MS.

Edit: Actually it's quite impossible seeing how Shows only got 35% in 2002.

We have 2 of 4 seats in MS right now. Including one in a 69/31 Bush district (Taylor).

Granted, Taylor's political views are very concise and easy to remember. As the 2006 Almanac of American Politics says..

"Taylor is a peppery populist with a reasonably consistent view on issues. He is against abortion, gun control, free trade, foreign aid and federal deficits. He is strongly pro-defense and boasts of bringing defense contracts to the area."

[7,052,770]

Happy to hear this; Pickering is a dufus.  Hopefully we'll put up some kind of semilegit challenge, since we havent even had a candidate since 2002 for the seat...

Possible candidates off the top of my head would be:
R--Amy Tuck, Charlie Ross
D--Eric Clark?, Ronnie Shows?  John Eaves?  hopefully someone legitimate

[7,052,770]

My roommate, who is a little bit "in the know" says it's because Pickering is running for the Senate and Cochran is retiring.  Take that secondhand info however you wish.

[RBH]

Happy to hear this; Pickering is a dufus.  Hopefully we'll put up some kind of semilegit challenge, since we havent even had a candidate since 2002 for the seat...

Possible candidates off the top of my head would be:
R--Amy Tuck, Charlie Ross
D--Eric Clark?, Ronnie Shows?  John Eaves?  hopefully someone legitimate

Here's my list of Mississippi House members who are reasonably young and in the 3rd district

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I'm crossing off Smith because he lost in a primary and Rotenberry is in a runoff.

Harry can start crossing off names too.

But why would Pickering retire before unretiring to run for the Senate? That doesn't make sense.

Would Bobby Moak be a good candidate? (on checking, Moak chairs the Gaming Committee.. I don't know if that's a great chairmanship to have for a larger race)

[RBH]

Extra notes

Moak and Warren are unopposed.

Most of the Republicans on my list are also unopposed.

So they could raise money for a Congressional bid, and then announce in the middle of November.

[jokerman]

Let's get a good blue dog to jump in and make it a competitive race.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Dems should kill for this seat. Even though this is a huge GOP seat, we should seriously try to win it for just the symbolism in gaining a seat in MS.

Edit: Actually it's quite impossible seeing how Shows only got 35% in 2002.

We have 2 of 4 seats in MS right now. Including one in a 69/31 Bush district (Taylor).

With all due respect, though, Taylor won his seat in a 1989 Special.  Things have, to say the very least, changed for Democrats in Mississippi since 1989.  This seat has a decidedly GOP lean, pretty much regardless of who runs for it.  (After all, this is an R+13 we're talking about.)

[RBH]

Dems should kill for this seat. Even though this is a huge GOP seat, we should seriously try to win it for just the symbolism in gaining a seat in MS.

Edit: Actually it's quite impossible seeing how Shows only got 35% in 2002.

We have 2 of 4 seats in MS right now. Including one in a 69/31 Bush district (Taylor).

With all due respect, though, Taylor won his seat in a 1989 Special.  Things have, to say the very least, changed for Democrats in Mississippi since 1989.  This seat has a decidedly GOP lean, pretty much regardless of who runs for it.  (After all, this is an R+13 we're talking about.)

GHW Bush won the 5th 69/30 in 1988 too.

But yes, since then Democrats went the way of tossing a lot of economic issues off the table (such as trade). And for some reason, when the social issues got more focus.. the Democrats lost in the South. Surprise surprise.

Pickering not recieving any challenge in 2004 and 2006 is a sign of the general feeling of the party over there. The district is 64/33 white, and probably can put up 35% for the least active of Democrats. But, they didn't even bother with that.

Then again, the 3rd is home to Ike Brown and the geniuses who want to drive moderate whites out of the Mississippi Democratic Party.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

GHW Bush won the 5th 69/30 in 1988 too.

And so did the Republican candidate.  Gene Taylor lost the open seat race by about 10 points.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I'm guessing this means that Thad Cochran is running for re-election?

George W. Bush won MS-3 by 65%-34% in 2004 after winning 64%-35% in 2000.  Chip Pickering was first elected in 1996 'against 29-year-old John Arthur Eaves Jr., son of a well-known lawyer and Democratic politician, Pickering, age 33, spent more than $1 million in the general, twice what Eaves spent, and won 61%-36%.'

[Democratic Hawk]

In 2002, MS-03 voted Pickering (R) 65% / Shows (D) 35% [2000 having seen Pickering winning MS-03 74-26 and Shows winning MS-04 59-40]

It would seem  that the vast majority of MS-04 voters were transferred to the new MS-03. The only county not to be transferred in it's entirety being Copiah, which together with part of Hinds (part of which was already in MS-02) were transferred to MS-02

Of the counties transferred from 04 to 03, they voted as follows (2000 result in brackets):

Adams: Dem 53% (Dem 63%)
Amite: Dem 50% (Dem 60%)
Covington: Rep 54%* (Dem 58%)
Franklin: Rep 55%* (Dem 57%)
Hinds (part): Rep 77%* (Dem 54%)
Jefferson Davis: Dem 69% (Dem 81%)
Jones: Rep 58%* (Dem 64%)
Lawrence: Dem 51% (Dem 63%)
Lincoln: Rep 60% (Rep 55% - the only MS-04 county not to vote for Shows in 2000)
Marion: Rep 56%* (Dem 68%)
Pike: Dem 51% (Dem 55%)
Simpson: Rep 56%* (Dem 51%)
Walthall: Rep 50%* (Dem 66%)
Wilkinson: Dem 61% (Dem 78%)

* denotes counties that switched in 2002

Of the old MS-03 counties, only Noxubee favored Shows (58%); while the most populous counties Rankin, Lauderdale and Madison were thumpingly for Pickering (79%, 73% and 79%, respectively). It was a very Republican year 2002 down in MS-03

Dave

[7,052,770]

Madison County should not be in MS-03 at all.  Look at the map; it should clearly be in MS-02.  A bit of incumbent-biased gerrymandering there...if white South Madison County is in district 2, Pickering and Thompson probably still win in 02, 04, 06, etc., but the races are both a little more competitive and and upset is a remote possibility.

[RBH]

So Harry, are there any state house/senate members who could be plausible candidates here?