Currently safe congressional seats that could come into play later this decade?

[Tekken_Guy]

What are some currently safe congressional seats that could come into play later in the decade?

[politicallefty]

We're almost halfway through the decade. I'd start by looking at suburban Texas seats though, especially if Biden wins Collin County. (If Denton County falls, we're looking at Blexas.)

[Spectator]

CO-05 is my favorite example. I fully expect it to be on the board if Trump is in the White House in 2026-2028. TX-24 probably flips presidentially by 2028 too.

For Democrats, the remaining RGV seats and Jared Moskowitz’s seat. I think most people think those are heavily D-favored, and they probably are at the congressional level. I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump won them this year.

[Tekken_Guy]

CO-05 is my favorite example. I fully expect it to be on the board if Trump is in the White House in 2026-2028. TX-24 probably flips presidentially by 2028 too.

For Democrats, the remaining RGV seats and Jared Moskowitz’s seat. I think most people think those are heavily D-favored, and they probably are at the congressional level. I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump won them this year.

If Williams wins the CO-05 primary then Dems are probably outright favored here by 2026. He’s an atrocious candidate.

CO-04 with Boebert is also a possibility given the trends in Douglas County which is half the district.

[Spectator]

CO-05 is my favorite example. I fully expect it to be on the board if Trump is in the White House in 2026-2028. TX-24 probably flips presidentially by 2028 too.

For Democrats, the remaining RGV seats and Jared Moskowitz’s seat. I think most people think those are heavily D-favored, and they probably are at the congressional level. I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump won them this year.

If Williams wins the CO-05 primary then Dems are probably outright favored here by 2026. He’s an atrocious candidate.

CO-04 with Boebert is also a possibility given the trends in Douglas County which is half the district.

Boebert is probably weak enough to lose it, but I don’t think most Republicans will actually struggle here. The rest of the district is like 70% GOP. Douglas County isn’t gonna become reliably blue enough to counteract that, at least this decade.

Edit: Yikes. I didn’t even know CO-05 was open this year. Yeah Williams is a total nut. He probably would lose in 2026. El Paso County is on the verge of flipping, probably not this year, but in 2028, and his probable loss in 2026 would be a sign of it.

[Tekken_Guy]

CO-05 is my favorite example. I fully expect it to be on the board if Trump is in the White House in 2026-2028. TX-24 probably flips presidentially by 2028 too.

For Democrats, the remaining RGV seats and Jared Moskowitz’s seat. I think most people think those are heavily D-favored, and they probably are at the congressional level. I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump won them this year.

If Williams wins the CO-05 primary then Dems are probably outright favored here by 2026. He’s an atrocious candidate.

CO-04 with Boebert is also a possibility given the trends in Douglas County which is half the district.

Boebert is probably weak enough to lose it, but I don’t think most Republicans will actually struggle here. The rest of the district is like 70% GOP. Douglas County isn’t gonna become reliably blue enough to counteract that, at least this decade.

The Larimer portion also had some decent pro-Dem trends recently too.

That being said, if the COGOP got their sh**t together they’d probably get Boebert out in a primary before a general.

[Spectator]

CO-05 is my favorite example. I fully expect it to be on the board if Trump is in the White House in 2026-2028. TX-24 probably flips presidentially by 2028 too.

For Democrats, the remaining RGV seats and Jared Moskowitz’s seat. I think most people think those are heavily D-favored, and they probably are at the congressional level. I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump won them this year.

If Williams wins the CO-05 primary then Dems are probably outright favored here by 2026. He’s an atrocious candidate.

CO-04 with Boebert is also a possibility given the trends in Douglas County which is half the district.

Boebert is probably weak enough to lose it, but I don’t think most Republicans will actually struggle here. The rest of the district is like 70% GOP. Douglas County isn’t gonna become reliably blue enough to counteract that, at least this decade.

The Larimer portion also had some decent pro-Dem trends recently too.

That being said, if the COGOP got their sh**t together they’d probably get Boebert out in a primary before a general.

That won’t happen. Trump will probably very narrowly win, possibly without a PV victory, and then the same type of freakshows that were abundant in 2022 will come out of the woodwork again 2026 and 2028, thinking they have a mandate, or that they are able to get away with the same type of behavior that Trump can. And they will predictably get destroyed. I think heatcharger reminds me of how a lot of them would be if they posted online.

[Nyvin]

CO-5
KY-6
MO-2
SC-1
TX-24
TX-28 (without Cuellar)
TX-38
VA-1

All of these are most likely 2028-2030 timeframe to become competitive.

Outside of the RGV I really don't see any currently safe Dem seats that could trend to become competitive...that seems like it's hard to come by.  There are D-held seats that are competitive now though like MI-8 or PA-8.

[Tekken_Guy]

CO-5
KY-6
MO-2
SC-1
TX-24
TX-28 (without Cuellar)
TX-38
VA-1

All of these are most likely 2028-2030 timeframe to become competitive.

Outside of the RGV I really don't see any currently safe Dem seats that could trend to become competitive...that seems like it's hard to come by.  There are D-held seats that are competitive now though like MI-8 or PA-8.

Are CO-04 or the north Atlanta seats potentially in play? They’re all similar in partisanship to TX-38.

[iceman]

AL-05? The trends in Hunstville which is around 60% of the district could make things a bit closer

AR-03? Northwest Arkansas is rapidly urbanizing, Washington county may flip soon.

FL-23? Palm Beach county is becoming more GOP-friendly