Florida
Romney 30
Giuliani 27
McCain 22
Huckabee 15
other 6
-does Rudy stay in? is he still viable in NY and NJ?
-how well does Romney fare on ST? does he win CA?
-is McCain still the frontrunner?
-does Huckabee have any chance at viability anywhere outside of Arkansas?
Actually, I think the percentages don't mean anything to the top 3. Whether McCain finishes 2nd or 3rd, I think it's inconsequential to his going on to NY and NJ with momentum, because Rudy will be out-- just like Fred was forced out after SC. Donors and establishment types will say, "Look, Rudy, you worked those voters in FL for months and you still lost. It's just not going to happen for you."
The story is that Rudy flopped in Florida and that Romney will get a post-FL surge in California, making McCain come up with some money real fast to battle Romney there, when a McCain win in FL would have given McCain the wind at his back in CA and not just NY and NJ.
Huck will not drop out until after 2/5, even if Ron Paul beats him in FL. If McCain fails to win FL, he isn't the frontrunner, especially since Romney would have a very nice (if brief) lead in delegates. Romney would be declared the frontrunner and he'd win a very nice number of CDs in CA, but it would be hard to say whether he'd crush McCain. McCain's problem is that I'm not at all sure that he has raised much money post-SC, and he's going to have to spend a lot in CA, regardless, but especially after a Romney FL win.
