What will happen in Alaska?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Unfortunately my current prediction for the House seat is the GOP keeps it because Young loses the primary, but Begich will defeat Stevens for the Senate seat.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     I agree. Young being primaried & Stevens falling to Begich seems like the most likely outcome right now.

[Sam Spade]

I have no clue.

[Tender Branson]

Young barely hangs on in the primary, which is in about 1 week and then loses against the Democrat. Stevens is going down by about 10%.

[Keystone Phil]

Young is going down and we'll keep the seat. August 26th will be a great day of celebration and entertainment (because of events happening in Denver). However, there will be one damper that day - Stevens looks like he's going to win the primary. I hope for a huge upset but it's probably going to be Stevens going on to the General and losing.

[minionofmidas]

Totally up in the air, but I voted Young loses primary, GOP wins general / Stevens wins primary, loses general as the single most likely (but under 50%) scenario. Realistically, Sam has nailed it.

[Torie]

Young is going down and we'll keep the seat. August 26th will be a great day of celebration and entertainment (because of events happening in Denver). However, there will be one damper that day - Stevens looks like he's going to win the primary. I hope for a huge upset but it's probably going to be Stevens going on to the General and losing.

One can hope that Stevens drops out after he wins the primary. There is always hope.

[Torie]

Young is going down and we'll keep the seat. August 26th will be a great day of celebration and entertainment (because of events happening in Denver). However, there will be one damper that day - Stevens looks like he's going to win the primary. I hope for a huge upset but it's probably going to be Stevens going on to the General and losing.

One would think that with the polls showing Young dead meat in the General,  the GOP primary voters would get a clue. They can't be that brain dead can they?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Young is going down and we'll keep the seat. August 26th will be a great day of celebration and entertainment (because of events happening in Denver). However, there will be one damper that day - Stevens looks like he's going to win the primary. I hope for a huge upset but it's probably going to be Stevens going on to the General and losing.

One would think that with the polls showing Young dead meat in the General,  the GOP primary voters would get a clue. They can't be that brain dead can they?

I don't know, ask Kentucky Republican primary voters.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Young loses/GOP wins, and Stevens wins/GOP loses.

[Brittain33]

The Stevens ad linked over at TPM has sound bites from several voters, and all but the last one ("Without Ted, we're toast") are by older men. I guess he's writing off women in his primary.

[Torie]

On the senate race, Stevens wins the primary, drops out, the GOP parachutes someone else in, and then, I don't have a clue (well I do, but I ain't saying). That is my example of hope triumphing over experience.   I just can't stand the thought of a Dem winning a senate seat in Alaska.

One thing is clear: neither incumbent will be going back to the Capitol dome.

[Torie]

Young is going down and we'll keep the seat. August 26th will be a great day of celebration and entertainment (because of events happening in Denver). However, there will be one damper that day - Stevens looks like he's going to win the primary. I hope for a huge upset but it's probably going to be Stevens going on to the General and losing.

One would think that with the polls showing Young dead meat in the General,  the GOP primary voters would get a clue. They can't be that brain dead can they?

I don't know, ask Kentucky Republican primary voters.

Well,

Kentucky is the land
of bourbon,
fast horses
and beautiful women.
It is not the land
of erudition.


But I take your point.

[minionofmidas]

Young is going down and we'll keep the seat. August 26th will be a great day of celebration and entertainment (because of events happening in Denver). However, there will be one damper that day - Stevens looks like he's going to win the primary. I hope for a huge upset but it's probably going to be Stevens going on to the General and losing.

One would think that with the polls showing Young dead meat in the General,  the GOP primary voters would get a clue. They can't be that brain dead can they?

I don't know, ask Kentucky Republican primary voters.

Well Kentucky is the land of bourbon, fast horses and beautiful women. It is not the land of erudition. But I take your point.

...

Coleman said daddy don't you worry bout me
I'm gonna stay here in Kentucky till the day I d
I'm gonna drink that sourmash and gonna race that mare
And find that woman with the foxy red hair

Now you all been movin' west since the day you got married
Well I'm gettin' off the wagon daddy I'm too old to be carried
Gonna stay here in Kentucky where the bluegrass grows
I'm gonna play it all night down the new cut road

...

[Torie]

Perfect! Man if fits like a glove with my post doesn't it, Lewis?

[minionofmidas]

Always a pleasure to serve. -_-

[J.G.H.]

Young will probably be primaried and Parnell elected.

Stevens' fate is determined by the verdict of the trial, which should be out just a few weeks before election day. If he's not guilty (and, Republicans, let's hope he suceeds in getting the trail moved to Alaska), I think he'll squeek by and win.

If guilty, well, I don't think there will be enough time to replace him on the ballot so he's probably gone. Though I suppose he could promise not to take the seat if elected which would result in a special election after January I think, so the November election would be more like a "Begich vs. generic Republican" race or a "Begich vs. whoever is the GOP frontrunner for the special" race. Begich would still probably win in such circustances anyway though.

I try to be optimistic, so I chose a Stevens re-election.

[Torie]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Why on God's Green Earth do you think that?  Of course it won't be out!  The trial won't even have begun.

OK, I was wrong. I'm amazed.

[Sam Spade]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Why on God's Green Earth do you think that?  Of course it won't be out!  The trial won't even have begun.

OK, I was wrong. I'm amazed.

Hard to believe, isn't it (though I posted that here a few weeks ago).  His lawyers have also made a motion to try and move the case back to Alaska, just FYI, that we should hear about soon.

That's the reason why I said "I have no clue".  The trial is probably the election, although it is possible that Begich could win if Stevens is acquitted, but I suspect it'll be difficult.

[Torie]

Well, if Stevens is convicted (and he will)  two weeks before the election, there won't be time to switch him out, and if the venue is moved to Alaska, I would be amazed if the schedule could be kept, but then the venue won't be moved.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Young is going down and we'll keep the seat. August 26th will be a great day of celebration and entertainment (because of events happening in Denver). However, there will be one damper that day - Stevens looks like he's going to win the primary. I hope for a huge upset but it's probably going to be Stevens going on to the General and losing.

One would think that with the polls showing Young dead meat in the General,  the GOP primary voters would get a clue. They can't be that brain dead can they?

In Alaska, no.  They did oust Frank Murkowski with a last place showing just 2 years ago.  Too bad, the Democrats finally have a winnable race and Tony Knowles is nowhere to be found

[Verily]

Stevens' fate is determined by the verdict of the trial, which should be out just a few weeks before election day. If he's not guilty (and, Republicans, let's hope he suceeds in getting the trail moved to Alaska), I think he'll squeek by and win.

Actually, I'm not sure he'd get by even if he's declared not guilty. Certainly the voters of Alaska have already passed their own judgment, per Rasmussen's most recent poll.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also Stevens even if not found guilty could be indicted later, he's basically being tried now for concealing evidence of corruption, not the corruption itself. And I doubt the trial's getting moved to Alaska with the recent evidence.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Young is going down and we'll keep the seat. August 26th will be a great day of celebration and entertainment (because of events happening in Denver). However, there will be one damper that day - Stevens looks like he's going to win the primary. I hope for a huge upset but it's probably going to be Stevens going on to the General and losing.

One would think that with the polls showing Young dead meat in the General,  the GOP primary voters would get a clue. They can't be that brain dead can they?

In Alaska, no.  They did oust Frank Murkowski with a last place showing just 2 years ago.  Too bad, the Democrats finally have a winnable race and Tony Knowles is nowhere to be found

The difference is that like Taft, Murkowski was absolutely hated by everyone, including (perhaps even especially Republicans.) While I haven't seen any actual approval polls for Young, he must still be at least net positive among Republicans considering he's still pulling 40-45% in the polls. That would probably be enough to save him if he had a second-tier opponent and if both the Alaska and national GOP had not thrown him under the bus. Unfortunately, that's not the case.