AZ: Mason-Dixon: McCain with a moderate lead in his home state

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Arizona President by Mason-Dixon on 2008-08-21

Summary: D: 41%, R: 47%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Sam Spade]

This poll strikes me as the likely outlier of all of these (though I recall saying we should never trust any poll from New Mexico), but it is good to see polls of these states from a good polling organization, especially Utah and Wyoming which we never see!

[Gustaf]

This poll strikes me as the likely outlier of all of these (though I recall saying we should never trust any poll from New Mexico), but it is good to see polls of these states from a good polling organization, especially Utah and Wyoming which we never see!

As I recall there is a tendency for M-D not to push undecideds very much (they tend to have higher number of undecideds than other serious firms). From what we've seen previously could this make McCain's margin in Arizona lower? I'm thinking CarlHayden types.

[DownWithTheLeft]

This poll strikes me as the likely outlier of all of these (though I recall saying we should never trust any poll from New Mexico), but it is good to see polls of these states from a good polling organization, especially Utah and Wyoming which we never see!

Isn't this an AZ poll?

[Sam Spade]

This poll strikes me as the likely outlier of all of these (though I recall saying we should never trust any poll from New Mexico), but it is good to see polls of these states from a good polling organization, especially Utah and Wyoming which we never see!

As I recall there is a tendency for M-D not to push undecideds very much (they tend to have higher number of undecideds than other serious firms). From what we've seen previously could this make McCain's margin in Arizona lower? I'm thinking CarlHayden types.

Possibly.  In general, in this election the undecideds tend to be leaning McCain for the moment.

[Sam Spade]

This poll strikes me as the likely outlier of all of these (though I recall saying we should never trust any poll from New Mexico), but it is good to see polls of these states from a good polling organization, especially Utah and Wyoming which we never see!

Isn't this an AZ poll?

Yes.  But I'm not going to comment on every thread, so I decided I would post it here... 

[DownWithTheLeft]

This poll strikes me as the likely outlier of all of these (though I recall saying we should never trust any poll from New Mexico), but it is good to see polls of these states from a good polling organization, especially Utah and Wyoming which we never see!

Isn't this an AZ poll?

Yes.  But I'm not going to comment on every thread, so I decided I would post it here... 

Oh, I didn't see the other poll

I guess it doesn't matter, New Mexico election officials haven't decided whose going to win yet anyway

[War on Want]

Not surprising for an outlier, Obama is probably relativley popular in Arizona compared to most Democratic politicans and so should do better than expected here.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Surprising; most likely an outlier.  McCain by just 6 doesn't make sense.

[Eraserhead]

I know MD is worshiped by many people around here but several of these look strange, especially this one.

Oh well, it is still summer.

[Gustaf]

I know MD is worshiped by many people around here but several of these look strange, especially this one.

Oh well, it is still summer.

MD doesn't push undecideds as much, which may explain some of the discrepancy.

[J. J.]

Ah, another swing state. 

[WalterMitty]

Not surprising for an outlier, Obama is probably relativley popular in Arizona compared to most Democratic politicans and so should do better than expected here.

he was so popular he won the az primary!

oh wait.