Obama/Biden vs McCain/Palin

[JSojourner]

274-264 McCain/Palin win!

Not everything will be like 2004 forever.

I have my astrology and it has given me the correct map, which will be revealed later today.

Seriously.  You're never going to go away are you??

[jamestroll]

274-264 McCain/Palin win!

Not everything will be like 2004 forever.

I have my astrology and it has given me the correct map, which will be revealed later today.

Seriously.  You're never going to go away are you??

Every so often, I will come back for a short while, and then get tired and take a break.

And believe me, the 2008 map won't look exactly like 2000 and 2004, like it or not.

And I will tell texasindy on you because of that picture!

[The Mikado]

First of all, we're only two months away from election day.  If McCain is going to turn this around, his convention has to be pitch perfect, and Sarah Palin must have some sort of secret wonk side that we don't know about.  If she doesn't, McCain has just destroyed his entire rationale for being President.  Secondly, I'm more optimistic today than I have been for months.

[JSojourner]

274-264 McCain/Palin win!

Not everything will be like 2004 forever.

I have my astrology and it has given me the correct map, which will be revealed later today.

Seriously.  You're never going to go away are you??

Every so often, I will come back for a short while, and then get tired and take a break.

And believe me, the 2008 map won't look exactly like 2000 and 2004, like it or not.

And I will tell texasindy on you because of that picture!

How old are you?  

Oh Jesus...someone just make it stop.

[The Mikado]

I love it that Jamespol mentions astrology giving him the winning map.  The idea that planets, sun, and stars know the secret of Obama's margin in New Mexico or which way Ohio will vote is just too laughable for words.

[afleitch]

I think that he has as many states leaning his direction right now is pretty amazing.  When the 527's get through with him, the map may look like 1984.

I think the 'red-blue' thing, as cliched as it is will hold. The final map will be similar to that of 2000 or 2004 though who wins is will be up in the air for some time.

All the GOP have to do is send a women to a hair salon in a small town to spread a rumour about Obama and it will stick. The 'Obama is a Muslim' thing is a case in point and no amount of fight back can reverse that perception.

As for that mentality, socially conservatives, voting against economic interest etc it still exists in Europe, but as Europe is 'smaller' in more ways than one the pockets where it holds out are small and not impenetrable. I could travel to rural parts of Scotland (including the Western Isles where they close play parks on Sundays and seem to hold local protests when CalMac try and establish a Sunday ferry service) and meet people with 'traditional' views, but their kids will go to out of town schools and travel to the big cities for uni and they bring their experiences with them and take their new ones back.
So the permeation of new ideas and new society is much easier.

[opebo]

35% chance? That's very bold of you to predict. The Obama camp can paint him as Bush all they want, but it has hardly stuck so far. Going into the DNC, Obama was tied or TRAILED McCain by a small margin. While I know you are convinced Obama will win this running away, just as you are convinced he'll win NC, it's not going to happen, at least not yet. Sure, it's possible that he wins in a landslide, but this Palin pick is interesting in that it brings a young face to the game and shows McCain still retains some of his maverick image. He chose a Washington outsider and a woman, while Obama, Mr. Change Agent, picked a 36 year Washington veteran who is both liberal, old and white. This pick plugs so many holes in McCain's team. She's a woman, she's young, she's conservative, and she's attractive. Obama cannot play the experience card against her because he is just as inexperienced. Biden is a gaffe machine and attacking this woman in the debate could easily backfire and tick off those 18 million Hillary voters who are just coming around to Obama's side. I'm amazed that you still believe people are going to fall lock-step behind Obama come election day. While you are keen on using stupid slogans like McSame, it really isn't working with most Americans. They remember John McCain as that maverick RINO who has been in the Senate and ran for President in 2000, not the man who voted with Bush 90% of the time in 2008. This pick just makes McCain look like the maverick that he was bu doing something no one expected, while Obama looked like a typical Washington politicial by choosing Biden. But hey, if you think McCain only has a 35% chance of winning this election, that's your call. I wouldn't make a bet on that right now.

Blah Blah blah... McCain is going to win for one reason and one reason only.. and the biggest sign you are one is you don't realize how many of you there are.

If McCain is going to turn this around...

Dude, 'turn it around'?  He's ahead.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

274-264 McCain/Palin win!

Not everything will be like 2004 forever.

I have my astrology and it has given me the correct map, which will be revealed later today.

Go away.

[Adam Griffin]

Obama 298
McCain 240

Missouri won't be bellwether forever.

[Frodo]

McCain/Palin (Democrat), though I am now convinced beyond a shadow of doubt that McCain will lose this election.  The fact that McCain picked Palin reeks of desperation to me, and undercuts (to put it mildly) his argument that he is better suited for the presidency on the basis of experience.  And honestly, I am not comfortable knowing that she is one heart-beat away from the presidency should he (in the unlikely event) win.   

My current map will remain the same until I see the results of polls (particularly Mason-Dixon as well as Rasmussen) conducted through the middle of next month. 

[??????????]

As for that mentality, socially conservatives, voting against economic interest etc

Who are you to tell me what my interests are? You guys still don't have a clue as to why you can't win the White House.

[Person Man]

As for that mentality, socially conservatives, voting against economic interest etc

Who are you to tell me what my interests are? You guys still don't have a clue as to why you can't win the White House.

1- I think this is an inaccurate generalization
2- There is some truth in that generalization
3- Perhaps there is some truth that we are telling people, and not asking people about their interests, and if the interests we espouse aren't their objective interests, then what are their interests? I mean, seriously. Do people have a desire to be abused? I mean, Islamic women have put up with it for 1000, in not 1400 years now and most of them appear content. Sure, this sounds harsh, but what am I supposed to think, in the instances when aflecitch's generalization is true, when people simply want to have subjective interests that are not their objective interests. I mean, if McCain wins, maybe I will "try" to be a conservative for a year to try to understand this and see if I can put my mind around it. Perhaps I could simply try to reason myself conservative and come to some right-wing or far-right forumite, class mate, friend or relative for the obvious emotional struggles that I will have.

[pragmatic liberal]

JSojourner, this is nuts. You're seriously suggesting that Palin will single-handedly swing Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada to John McCain? In a year in which all the fundamentals point to the Democrats?

Even in an event contest, this would make Palin the single-most consequential and single best VP candidate in history. No running mate, no matter how good, has ever swung an election as much as you think Palin would.

People pay minimal attention to the VP when voting. Even the best VP's have relatively modest effects: (a) an indirect effect, in which their selection causes voters to reflect positively on the presidential candidate, worth perhaps a few percentage points nationwide, and (b) a direct effect of a few points in their home state. And b isn't even a given!

These are the effects of the BEST running mates. The simple fact is that people don't vote for VP, they vote for president!

Frankly, I suspect this choice is going to backfire spectacularly. Everyone I've talked to about this thinks this pick is crazy (I'm talking non-political junkies) and the cable TV debate is entirely about whether she's qualified to be president -- not good turf. So I think this is likelier to result in an Obama blowout than a McCain blowout.

But honestly, the effect is likely to be small one way or the other. A few points one way or the other nationally and several points padded to the Republican margin in Alaska.

Stop freaking out. No VP candidate has ever done what you think Palin will magically do.

[Democratic Hawk]

I would vote for Obama/Biden, if I could.

As would I, emphatically