Democracy Corps (D): Obama 49 - McCain 45

[Thomas Jackson]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/dcor093008fq12_pb.pdf

Q.34 (ASK ONLY IF PUNCH 4, 6, 7 OR 8 IN PRES083 OR PRES08B3) Well, if the election for
president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
John McCain, for whom would you vote?

National/Battle Ground
Barack Obama.................................................................. 27 22
John McCain..................................................................... 26 41
(Undecided) ......................................................................20 14
(Other) ..............................................................................18 14
(Refused)...........................................................................4 8
(Independent Ralph Nader) ............................................... 4 1
(Libertarian Bob Barr) .........................................................- -
(Constitution Party/ Louisiana Taxpayer Party
candidate Ron Paul) ...........................................................- -

[Kalimantan]

What the hell is this? 20% undecided, 18% other, 4% refused, does not a 49-45 poll make.

[Sam Spade]

What the hell is this? 20% undecided, 18% other, 4% refused, does not a 49-45 poll make.

That's because ghostmonkey is an idiot and doesn't know which the correct question is that tells us the result. (specifically question 33)

The Dem Corps iteration last week had it at Obama +3 (47-44).

Dem Corps is a partisan poll, but a good poll, in fact one of the best.  What you have to be careful for sometimes is that they'll slant their results 2-4 points if the results are not showing things very good for Democrats (see 2004).  I don't think that's the case here, however. (obviously)

[Ronnie]

I'll take these results for now.  It just seems as if the race is stabilizing.

[Thomas Jackson]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I put the main numbers in the title. I figured that you all would be smart enough to figure that out.

I emphasized Q34 for a reason.

See if you can figure out why.

[Sam Spade]

I'll take these results for now.  It just seems as if the race is stabilizing.

I personally think Dem Corps is right on the money right now.  I've been debating myself as to whether my Obama +3 call should be changed to Obama +5 over the past couple of days.  Some of the decent state polls seem to be following that line - others aren't, so if I'm torn between O+3 and O+5, I would choose to make an in-between call at O+4.

The tracking polls are slightly oversampling Dems, imho, right now, but this is to be expected.  Oh wait, I see that Gallup is mirroring me right now.  Ah.

[ucscgaldamez]

Well, obviously, the undecided voters go back and forth. However, even if they break 60-40% for McCain, it is difficult to make the assumption that they will break 60-40 in each swing state. Every state is different, and swing voters in each state may vote differently.

[Reds4]

Democracy Corps, though clearly a democratic pollster, is a very good polling firm. I am always very interested in their numbers. Good breakdowns.

[The Vorlon]

Democracy Corps, though clearly a democratic pollster, is a very good polling firm. I am always very interested in their numbers. Good breakdowns.

There is a misconception that partisan pollsters are bad at what they do. - In fact, the opposite is true.

Politicians want the facts when they are actually running for office (as opposed to when they get elected, and then their fondness for reality dims somewhat) - Politicians hire the very best pollsters money can buy, and as a practical matter it is easier to work one side of the fence than to try to straddle things.

Public Opinion Strategies (R) is also in this category - they are as GOP as they come, but (IMHO) the best polling firm in existance.

These firms are "combat pollsters" and their goal is to win.  If they thnk it is helpful to "leak" a poll they have essentially just made up they will certainly do so, but the internal numbers they give to the candidate as as close to reality as they can make them...

BTW I happen to think Obama +4 is pretty close to reality - there is a little "economic panic froth" in the mix for an extra point or two right now, but I think fundementally this is a 4-5 point race.

[Sam Spade]

One of these days, I'm going to have to stop agreeing with you, Vorlon. 

[Torie]

It is going to be a bitch to get that 5% back. Why? It is going to be like getting oil out of deep reservoirs in the oceans, with unstable salt beds above.

[Sam Spade]

It is going to be a bitch to get that 5% back. Why? It is going to be like getting oil out of deep reservoirs in the oceans, with unstable salt beds above.

Well, I am sure you would agree that to at least toss the anchor back into the water, the bailout bill has to be passed (which I suspect it will).  Exploration can only begin with a competent Sarah Palin VP performance.  (we'll see on that)

Only then can the real drilling start.  This is actually a good analogy, quite fitting with one issue in the campaign. 

[kevinatcausa]

I can't believe that this poll

(1) Waited until question 33 before bothering to ask who the voter supported for president.
(2) Didn't ask questions 44-49 last...those are some seriously loaded questions, and I'd be worried about the reactions to them spilling over into later questions.

[Kalimantan]

Democracy Corps, though clearly a democratic pollster, is a very good polling firm. I am always very interested in their numbers. Good breakdowns.

These firms are "combat pollsters" and their goal is to win.  If they thnk it is helpful to "leak" a poll they have essentially just made up they will certainly do so, ...

Which makes them completely untrustworthy, whatever the result and however good they mght be behind closed doors.