Quinnipiac: Alex Sink (D) leads in 2010 FL Governor race

[Tender Branson]

Alex Sink (D): 38%
Bill McCollum (R): 34%

Sink: 25% favorable, 7% unfavorable
McCollum: 40% favorable, 13% unfavorable

From June 2 - 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,245 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1310

[Holmes]

Oooh. But 28% undecided is not good to make conclusions.

[Eraserhead]

Cool, I guess.

[Keystone Phil]

Alex Sink (D): 38%
Bill McCollum (R): 34%

Sink: 25% favorable, 7% unfavorable
McCollum: 40% favorable, 13% unfavorable

Anyone else find those numbers odd?

[Tender Branson]

Alex Sink (D): 38%
Bill McCollum (R): 34%

Sink: 25% favorable, 7% unfavorable
McCollum: 40% favorable, 13% unfavorable

Anyone else find those numbers odd?

No. Why ?

It's just the base on each side at the moment. Even if they don't know her, most Democrats will still say that they will vote for her in the GE, while Independents are split.

The poll is similar to the recent Strategic Vision poll, which had the Governor race a tie, but Obama at 60% approval among FL Likely Voters and therefore higher than this one.

[Keystone Phil]

Alex Sink (D): 38%
Bill McCollum (R): 34%

Sink: 25% favorable, 7% unfavorable
McCollum: 40% favorable, 13% unfavorable

Anyone else find those numbers odd?

No. Why ?

It's just the base on each side at the moment. Even if they don't know her, most Democrats will still say that they will vote for her in the GE, while Independents are split.

The poll is similar to the recent Strategic Vision poll, which had the Governor race a tie, but Obama at 60% approval among FL Likely Voters and therefore higher than this one.

Someone has a much better rating than the opponent but is trailing that person in their match up?

I just think if you have a 40% approval rating that the amount of people supporting you would be a bit closer to 40%.

[Tender Branson]

Alex Sink (D): 38%
Bill McCollum (R): 34%

Sink: 25% favorable, 7% unfavorable
McCollum: 40% favorable, 13% unfavorable

Anyone else find those numbers odd?

No. Why ?

It's just the base on each side at the moment. Even if they don't know her, most Democrats will still say that they will vote for her in the GE, while Independents are split.

The poll is similar to the recent Strategic Vision poll, which had the Governor race a tie, but Obama at 60% approval among FL Likely Voters and therefore higher than this one.

Someone has a much better rating than the opponent but is trailing that person in their match up?

I just think if you have a 40% approval rating that the amount of people supporting you would be a bit closer to 40%.

Hmmmmm ...

After looking through the internals of this poll the numbers really don't make much sense.

According to the release, 1245 voters were questioned. 486 Republicans, 477 Democrats and 282 Independents.

Sink gets 72% of Democrats, 27% of Independents and 5% of Republicans.

McCollum gets 72% of Republicans, 32% of Independents and 11% of Democrats.

McCollum would actually lead 40-36 in this poll ...

[Rowan]

Maybe they oversampled for the primary numbers but used different numbers for the GE matchups?

[East Coast Republican]

This poll is garbage!

Why even conduct a poll more than a year out from a Governor's race?  Alex Sink isn't even widely known in this state-McCollum isn't well known either but he's certainly better known than her.

The internal numbers are extremely screwy and the poll questions are reckless and irresponsible. Why did quinnipiac even do a poll this far in advance?  38-34-28 undecided?!  What an embarrassment for Quinnipiac.

I still respect them a lot, though but seriously what an embarrasment.

A special note should be said: polls this far out are very misleading.  Take them with a grain of pepper.

[Joe Republic]

This poll is garbage!

Why even conduct a poll more than a year out from a Governor's race?  Alex Sink isn't even widely known in this state-McCollum isn't well known either but he's certainly better known than her.

The internal numbers are extremely screwy and the poll questions are reckless and irresponsible. Why did quinnipiac even do a poll this far in advance?  38-34-28 undecided?!  What an embarrassment for Quinnipiac.

I still respect them a lot, though but seriously what an embarrasment.

A special note should be said: polls this far out are very misleading.  Take them with a grain of pepper.

Polls are often performed early to gauge the viability of the candidates, which in turn sets the course for fundraising, primary challenges, etc.  Surely you've seen that various polls have been conducted for many, many 2010 races for the past several months?

[Verily]

Maybe they oversampled for the primary numbers but used different numbers for the GE matchups?

Presumably that's what they did. Democrats have a big registration advantage in Florida (around 46-37, IIRC), so it would be a really bad poll if they found more Republicans than Democrats.

[East Coast Republican]

Really?  Viability of candidates?  I didn't know that!

Gosh I thought candidates did things like form exploratory committees where they go around trying to raise funds, win endorsements and conduct internal polls.

But now you tell me they look at garbage polls with really bad wording more than a year out to help them decide?  It helps more than their exploratory committee?  Yes, this poll is gonna predict the winner.

Thanks for educating me!  

Oh and those other 2010 polls are also garbage in my eyes.  Remember the 2007 polls of Rudy beating Hillary?  Yeah that showed they were both viable in the General Election.  Yes, I know candidate x, y and z are viable but don't waste my time when both candidates only attract support in the 30s or lower.

[Joe Republic]

Whoa, there!  What's with the attitude?  You might wish to take a step back and try again with less of the hostility, newbie.

[East Coast Republican]

I apolgozie.

I've just come from dealing with Phil the arrogant know it all.  I guess I sensed that you were talking down to me.

Let's be friendz!

[Keystone Phil]

I apolgozie.

I've just come from dealing with Phil the arrogant know it all.  I guess I sensed that you were talking down to me.

Let's be friendz!

Yeah, this kid isn't a troll.

[East Coast Republican]

I will admit that polls done this early do help to educate the electorate on who the candidates are and what positions they hold.  In that respect, 2010 polls such as these aren't garbage.

In fact, polls leading up to 2010 help educate the public of trends (I'm sure you all know this though).

The main reason this poll is garbage is because of the horrible wording of the questions (I think Quinnipiac even told the callers that Alex Sink was a female?-She would be the first female Governor if elected).

So there is my newbie reasoning put towards this community in the politiest and most educated manner possible. 

[pogo stick]

I apolgozie.

I've just come from dealing with Phil the arrogant know it all.  I guess I sensed that you were talking down to me.

Let's be friendz!

Yeah, this kid isn't a troll.

I side with that Italian on this one