You are the campaign advisor to your canidate, what do you do to win?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

If I were Kerry, I'd have a complete midwestern plan. 

If the election were held today, I think this would be the result. 



Bush 271         Kerry 267

Same as 2000.  Kerry picks up Ohio (jobs issue and he picks up most undecideds), and New Hampshire (leans towards Kerry in a close election).  But he loses Iowa and Wisconsin, both of which look to be leaning towards Bush as of right now. 

If I were Kerry's advisor, I'd spend the last weeks of the campaign almost exclusively in West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa, and maybe make a western trip to secure Oregon and New Mexico.  Florida, which should be neck-and-neck, has looked so Bush friendly through-out this entire campaign.  I don't think Kerry is gonna win there.  Nevada is close, but I don't think the Democrats can crack it.  Same with Colorado, but that proportional representation thing might cause either canidate to get at least 4 from the state. 

I think runing a midwestern startegy the rest of the way out wins it for Kerry.  If Kerry can pick up OH, all he has to do is take keep IA or WI. 

[J. J.]

I'd tell Bush to make one last campaign swing through FL.  Sure up WI, MO, and IA next, this week, and next week, hit ME and NH, and then spend the next week hitting OH, PA and NJ, focusing on the end states (OH and NJ).

[Democratic Hawk]

I'd advise Kerry to focus on 10 states, which will determine the election.

The five states  I'd advise Kerry to defend are Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin (it's looking increasingly for Bush but Kerry or Edwards can appeal to its progressive traditions), Iowa and New Mexico, while he should concentrate his efforts challenging Bush in Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Nevada and New Hampshire.

Kerry may need to visit Michigan, New Jersey and Oregon from time to time.

Dave

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I would have quit as campaign advisor after the first debate.

[TomC]

My answer is more message-oriented:

Kerry needs to hit some populist notes, even if it's not entirely natural, even if it's close to Gore's "People Against the Powerful" type rhetoric. It's how to tie everything together. Kerry's hitting all the right notes, but they haven't been tied together enough, the thesis for the five paragraph essay, if you will. He won the debates because of his great ability to crystalize. And at its core is government for average folks rather than corporate America. Looking out for the little guy. Taking Back America. Again, hit the populist notes. Turn "The real deal" he's put on materials into, not him, but something for the American people.

He's got to do a bit more to get black voters out in the larger, urban states.

Create an ad of Kerry in 70s testifying before Congress, with the other half of the screen showing a male cheerleader snorting cocaine from a mirror saying "I wonder if they miss me at the base. It's hard work. [Sincker}"

Run the footage of Bush saying "We Can't win the war on terror: and "They say the Iraqi right track/wrong track is higher than ours." Run it over and over.

Run ads with stereotypes of key voting groups saying, very clearly, why they are for Kerry. Can he say he approved the message with all of them in the picture?

Remind voters of the need for checks and balances and that House leadership is out of the mainstream. Remind them of Tom DeLay.

Spend three days talking about why women should vote KERRY/EDWARDS. Have rallies with a lot of women on the stage. He must remind them Bush's reelection will end Roe v Wade. Prochoice women must be mobilized to GOTV.

Have Teresa buy a lot of Kerry halloween masks so Kerry can say he's leading the halloween mask vote.

Have Bill Maher and Jon Stewart refer to Bush as short a lot.

Give up (going to) on WV. If Byrd can't take care of it, it can't be done.

Ohio and the Midwest, including Missouri, even if its just to make B/C04 put effort there. A little effort in Nevada and Colorado. Send Edwards to Wisc and leave him there.

If he's leading the nationals on Oct 30, go to Florida.

[Trilobyte]

Kerry needs to paint Bush as being "out of touch": out of touch on jobs, out of touch on Iraq. The biggest vulnerability for any incumbant is always the perception of being out of touch with the people who elected them.

Run ads showing Bush together with the unpopular Cheney, painting Bush as right-wing, extremist. Clinton made a lot of these ads in 1996 lumping Dole with Gingrich.

If Kerry can get the message across, he will win by default. He really should have done this earlier; I'm not sure if he can do this in three weeks.

[A18]

Yes, they should run ads highlighting Kerry's vote against the first Gulf War

[TeePee4Prez]

The "Double Triangle plan" for Kerry

1st one- OH, WV, and PA.  Most likely Cleveland, Youngstown, Erie, Toledo, Columbus, Pittsburgh. and Coal Country, WV areas.  I would go Edwards heavy in these areas with Teresa in Pittsburgh.


2nd one- MN, WI, and IA.  Don't use Edwards as much in MN but morseo Iowa and Eastern Wisconsin. 

[The Duke]

From day one I'd have gone after Kerry as an extremist, not a flip-flopper.  I think its a more supportable argument.

If they brought me in today for advice, I'd say hit Kerry on taxes, bash the unrealistic budget plans he has, and point to Afghanistan as a great success.  Run a TV ad with clips of Bush's speech after 9/11 declaring Bush a great leader and another with him at ground zero saying "I can hear you!".  The theme of the ads is leadership, but make sure your stump speeches and your spin on cable shows is all about bashing Kerry.

[MODU]

I would tell Kerry to spend the remaining amount of his funds and buy a primetime spot and "sit down" with America and - in non-politician speak - explain to everyone clearly (with details) what his "plans" are if he were to become President.  He has never clearly defined what his numerous "plans" are, and that is what continues to hurt him in the polls.

For Bush, I would continue with his national campaign.  There isn't anything that I can think of at the moment that would help him more than what he has done so far.

[Bogart]

I don't think that I'd want to formulate a "final" plan until after tomorrow night.  After that, assuming a decent outcome, I agree with whoever said to focus on Kerry and Edward's liberal voting records in the Senate. I would hammer them and as hard as possible. Kerry's record with respect to defense issues, taxes and social issues is more than ample to paint him as very left.

I would focus almost exclusively in PA, OH, IA and MO. I think pretty much everything else is academic at this point.

Last, pray for rain on Nov. 2. It never hurts.

[Akno21]

Kerry goes to PA, OH mostly, with 2 or 3 stops in MI, WI, IA and MN. Edwards does more in the last 4, and covers the west, OR, NV, and NM. Get Jimmy Carter to move to FL until Nov. 2, and get prominent Dems to go to NJ, NH, and ME.

As for message, focus on the economy, bash Bush on the tax cuts for wealthy and on the deficit. Go after him on iraq, mainly. Do more leadership ads, perhaps some ones that focus on the fact that he is still more experinced that Bush.

[Keystone Phil]

Bush should keep visiting PA. It's important that he keeps Kerry on the defensive here.

Other states I would say Bush should focus on: Iowa, Minnesota and New Mexico. (WI used to be at the top of my column of states Bush should focus on but it seems very likely to go for Bush.)

[opebo]

Is Bill Clinton too sick to campaign?

I assume he must be, or they'd be using him.  He could campaign in Arkansas and Florida.. maybe WV/OH/PA.