Are the networks still allowed to call states before polls close?
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  Are the networks still allowed to call states before polls close?
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Author Topic: Are the networks still allowed to call states before polls close?  (Read 3015 times)
Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« on: March 09, 2004, 06:15:07 PM »

I was wondering how this might affect the upcoming election, because it may have in 2000.  

Florida for example.  It was called for Gore 30 minutes before the last polls in the panhandle closed.  This could disenfranchise voters because they'll assume its already decided and there's no point in voting.  MI, NH, and TN, are all potential swing states and have 2 poll closing times.  Has there been any rule made that says you have to wait until ALL the polls in the states are closed?  

If not I hope they get on that pretty soon.  
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zachman
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« Reply #1 on: March 09, 2004, 06:27:47 PM »

If you do not vote because your state has already been called you are a fool. I think most Americans see themselves as a brick in a tower which most outsize the other tower. In other words, people vote to see a popular vote winner.
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Nation
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« Reply #2 on: March 09, 2004, 07:27:52 PM »

There was a congressional hearing for reps from major media networks in January 2001, and, if I remember correctly, I don't believe ANY station will be calling a state before the polls close. There is no good argument for calling a state before the polls close. Let everyone vote who wants to vote, THEN call it. God forbid the people should have to wait an extra 20 minutes to find out who won.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #3 on: March 09, 2004, 08:59:12 PM »

i think it is safe to go ahead and call utah right now.
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zachman
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« Reply #4 on: March 09, 2004, 09:14:20 PM »

In 2000, they called Indiana at 6:00 PM, how did they do that?
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MAS117
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« Reply #5 on: March 09, 2004, 09:18:06 PM »

In primaries when I was wathcing on Super Tuesday, right when the some of the polls close at 8 at 8:01 they call it for someone
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zachman
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« Reply #6 on: March 09, 2004, 09:20:52 PM »

South Carolina was called immediately for Edwards. I think on election days polls everywhere should be closed at 6 PM, and results can come in at 9:00 PM EST. Hawaii and Alaska don't matter, for election results.

Were Oregon's results in 2000 effected in any way by early results?
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California Dreamer
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« Reply #7 on: March 09, 2004, 10:09:12 PM »

I think FOX has already called the election for Bush
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MarkDel
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« Reply #8 on: March 09, 2004, 10:49:40 PM »

You guys have got this all wrong. The networks have agreed for MANY YEARS to not call a state until the polls are closed in that state. This has been the unofficial policy ever since the 1980 Election when the major networks declared Reagan the winner very, very early, and Democrats contended that it cost them House and Senate seats in the Western time zones.

What happened in Florida was a mistake. While it pains me greatly to stick up for the communist mainstream media, they did not INTEND to declare Florida early for Bush or Gore. The truth is that network executives know soooo little about what liberals call "flyover territory" that they did not realize that the Western part of the Florida panhandle was in a different time zone. Hence they called Florida before ALL the polls were closed.

In every other state, they wait until the polls are closed in each state to call that individual state. Indiana is called early because the polls CLOSE EARLY (6PM EST) in Indiana.
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angus
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« Reply #9 on: March 09, 2004, 10:51:54 PM »
« Edited: March 09, 2004, 10:54:07 PM by angus »

You guys have got this all wrong. The networks have agreed for MANY YEARS to not call a state until the polls are closed in that state. This has been the unofficial policy ever since the 1980 Election when the major networks declared Reagan the winner very, very early, and Democrats contended that it cost them House and Senate seats in the Western time zones.

What happened in Florida was a mistake. While it pains me greatly to stick up for the communist mainstream media, they did not INTEND to declare Florida early for Bush or Gore. The truth is that network executives know soooo little about what liberals call "flyover territory" that they did not realize that the Western part of the Florida panhandle was in a different time zone. Hence they called Florida before ALL the polls were closed.

In every other state, they wait until the polls are closed in each state to call that individual state. Indiana is called early because the polls CLOSE EARLY (6PM EST) in Indiana.

Nevertheless, it is foolish, for many reasons and on many levels, to claim that "I didn't go and vote for Bush because on Channel 47 they said Gore won."  The onus is on the voter.

Dean:  "The media never got my message out."

Clark's son:  "The media's job is to sell advertising."
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MarkDel
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« Reply #10 on: March 09, 2004, 10:58:48 PM »

Angus,

I agree, but both parties have used this pathetic excuse in the past...
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Kghadial
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« Reply #11 on: March 09, 2004, 11:15:43 PM »

Polls close so early in Indiana ...
Since Indiana is so solid Republican it is called first, although this election Kentucky will also be called at the same time.

6PM is a little early to close polls. I think if they were to standardize this things that it should be closer to 8.

Its arguable that perhaps calling so early spurs voting on some occasions. If it looks like it is going to be very very close out east , in the west it'll be extra incentive to get out and tip the election your way.

In any case i think calling eastern races early so everyone in the West can here it on the evening news doesn't effect much in either direction.  If your candidate is dominating, you can sit at home since he doesn't need you, and if your candidate is getting whacked you can sit at home and cry.  

However, calling a state before its polls close definitely effects the results.

Perhaps they should all agree to wait until the first 10% (5% in large states) of precincts have reported. So they have actual  results to back up the exit polls.

In any case a uniform reporting time would bum me out. It was a lot of fun sitting watching the states go for Gore. Being excited that they didn't call Georgia thirty five seconds after polls closed, since that of course meant that Gore was competitive in the South ... Sad
Agonizing when they took Florida away from Gore, and named Bush the president. But having a sneaky suspicion that Bush's victory in Florida wasn't a given and staying awake till whatever hour that they retracted it.

Election junkies like us wouldn't like it if they waited till midnight to tell us what happened.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #12 on: March 10, 2004, 10:03:29 AM »

You guys have got this all wrong. The networks have agreed for MANY YEARS to not call a state until the polls are closed in that state. This has been the unofficial policy ever since the 1980 Election when the major networks declared Reagan the winner very, very early, and Democrats contended that it cost them House and Senate seats in the Western time zones.

What happened in Florida was a mistake. While it pains me greatly to stick up for the communist mainstream media, they did not INTEND to declare Florida early for Bush or Gore. The truth is that network executives know soooo little about what liberals call "flyover territory" that they did not realize that the Western part of the Florida panhandle was in a different time zone. Hence they called Florida before ALL the polls were closed.

In every other state, they wait until the polls are closed in each state to call that individual state. Indiana is called early because the polls CLOSE EARLY (6PM EST) in Indiana.

Nevertheless, it is foolish, for many reasons and on many levels, to claim that "I didn't go and vote for Bush because on Channel 47 they said Gore won."  The onus is on the voter.

Dean:  "The media never got my message out."

Clark's son:  "The media's job is to sell advertising."

I agree with Angus.  The bottom line is the networks job is to sell ads and report news.  Exit Polls, for better or worse, ARE news.  If I worked for a network, I would like to pass along news as quickly as possible, if it would help me sell ads.  I think they should revise their terminology by reporting exit poll numbers in a way that is not declaring a definitive winner.  I have no problem with declaring a winner, but, as we saw in Florida, their accuracy is not 100%, so stating that a candidate "appears to be leading" based on exit polls seems to be legitimate to me, rather than pretending that they have no idea until the clock strikes 7:00 p.m. or 8:00p.m. or whatever, then suddenly declaring a winner with zero actual results.  Just a thought.
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© tweed
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« Reply #13 on: March 10, 2004, 03:29:48 PM »

I think they are allowed to call the race before polls close.  As WalterMitty said, we can probably call about ten states right now.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #14 on: March 10, 2004, 03:31:39 PM »

I'm not sure if they are "allowed" or not, but they have all agreed not to "call the races" until ALL the polls are closed in the particular state.  Seems silly to me, however.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #15 on: March 10, 2004, 03:51:30 PM »

I think they are allowed to call the race before polls close.  As WalterMitty said, we can probably call about ten states right now.

10? Let me see...UT, MT, ID, WY, NE, KS, OK, TX, ND, SD and AL I can call for Bush now. That's 12 and I'm hardly warm yet...MA, DC, RI, HI, NY and DE I think I can call now for Kerry. That's another 6 right there. And there are a lot more I'd say.
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Nym90
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« Reply #16 on: March 10, 2004, 06:00:01 PM »
« Edited: March 10, 2004, 06:03:42 PM by Nym90 »

There is a lot of misinformation going around about what happened in Florida in 2000. Having twice read Jeff Greenfield's book "Oh Waiter, One Order of Crow" (highly recommended, probably the best all around book about the 2000 presidential election), I can fill you in on what happened, at least at CNN.

Florida was called for Gore at 7:50 PM, about 10 minutes before the polls in the panhandle closed. The reason it was called for Gore was because:

The exit poll from Florida had Gore ahead 52-48

Gore had a 5-6 point lead in Florida in most preelection polls in the state.

Sample precincts in Florida that were reporting were all showing Gore running almost as well as Clinton had in 1996 in the same precincts.

Those are the 3 criteria used to call a state. If the exit polls and preelection polls both show one candidate clearly ahead, the state is called as soon as the polls close. Otherwise, they wait for sample precincts to begin reporting, compare the returns to past returns in those precincts, and then go from there. (Precincts are randomly chosen across the state, and then both the percentages and turnout in those precincts is compared to past years)

Hence, the state was called for Gore. All of the available evidence suggested that he would win the state. Greenfield likened it to the Challenger disaster...the process of calling states had worked so flawlessly for so long that no one had any doubt that it would continue to perform well. It was the first time in history in a presidential race that a state, once called, had to be taken back. The only mistake that had ever been made was in the 1996 Senate race in New Hampshire.

The policy at the time was that no state would be called unless 75% of the polls in the state were closed. (That has been now modified into no state being called unless 100% of the polls are closed). And the panhandle and absentee ballots were being taken into consideration in the call, though part of what threw a monkey wrench into the predictions were that absentee ballots comprised 12% of the statewide total, up from 7% in 1996.

As for 1980, the networks did call it for Reagan early, but 1984, 1988, 1992, and 1996 were also all called before the polls on the West Coast closed. What really hurt the Dems that year was that Carter gave his official concession speech even before the polls on the West Coast closed. Since then, no candidate has conceded before 11 PM Eastern time.
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angus
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« Reply #17 on: March 10, 2004, 06:30:58 PM »

There is a lot of misinformation going around about what happened in Florida in 2000. Having twice read Jeff Greenfield's book "Oh Waiter, One Order of Crow" (highly recommended, probably the best all around book about the 2000 presidential election), I can fill you in on what happened, at least at CNN.

Florida was called for Gore at 7:50 PM, about 10 minutes before the polls in the panhandle closed. The reason it was called for Gore was because:

The exit poll from Florida had Gore ahead 52-48

Gore had a 5-6 point lead in Florida in most preelection polls in the state.

Sample precincts in Florida that were reporting were all showing Gore running almost as well as Clinton had in 1996 in the same precincts.

Those are the 3 criteria used to call a state. If the exit polls and preelection polls both show one candidate clearly ahead, the state is called as soon as the polls close. Otherwise, they wait for sample precincts to begin reporting, compare the returns to past returns in those precincts, and then go from there. (Precincts are randomly chosen across the state, and then both the percentages and turnout in those precincts is compared to past years)

Hence, the state was called for Gore. All of the available evidence suggested that he would win the state. Greenfield likened it to the Challenger disaster...the process of calling states had worked so flawlessly for so long that no one had any doubt that it would continue to perform well. It was the first time in history in a presidential race that a state, once called, had to be taken back. The only mistake that had ever been made was in the 1996 Senate race in New Hampshire.

The policy at the time was that no state would be called unless 75% of the polls in the state were closed. (That has been now modified into no state being called unless 100% of the polls are closed). And the panhandle and absentee ballots were being taken into consideration in the call, though part of what threw a monkey wrench into the predictions were that absentee ballots comprised 12% of the statewide total, up from 7% in 1996.

As for 1980, the networks did call it for Reagan early, but 1984, 1988, 1992, and 1996 were also all called before the polls on the West Coast closed. What really hurt the Dems that year was that Carter gave his official concession speech even before the polls on the West Coast closed. Since then, no candidate has conceded before 11 PM Eastern time.

Excellent non-fiction.  (I've only read it once.  In short bursts.  Whilst I shat.)  And Greenfield has a great sense of humor.  But if there is misinformation going around, it is not the fault of the media, since they were all very honest about what happened.  It is important to remember that while networks may agree upon a code of ethics regarding what they report, the first amendment gives them the right to call an election any time they want.  And if Joe Six-Pack thinks that his ballot only consists of one race, and that that race is decided regardless of how he votes, then our society has much bigger problems than what is on TV at the moment.

As for the agreement not to call the result in a given state before the polls are closed:  It is obviously pandering to the nanny element of both parties, but that's their prerogative.  I'm not in that business so I'll not tell them how to run it.  But the talking heads clearly don't even give lip service to that rule.  Think back to the NH primaries in 2004.  It was very clear, not only from the subtextual nuance, but in the very words they used to describe the results, who would win in that state before the polls closed.  The gleam in Judy Woodruff's eyes as she hinted that Dean would not win.  The gleam in Brit Hume's eyes when he hinted that Kerry would.  I don't think you'll have any problem figuring out who's winning Florida if you tune in to FOX on election night.

But just so you won't have to wait:  Bush wins Florida.  
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #18 on: March 10, 2004, 06:51:30 PM »

There is a lot of misinformation going around about what happened in Florida in 2000. Having twice read Jeff Greenfield's book "Oh Waiter, One Order of Crow" (highly recommended, probably the best all around book about the 2000 presidential election), I can fill you in on what happened, at least at CNN.

Florida was called for Gore at 7:50 PM, about 10 minutes before the polls in the panhandle closed. The reason it was called for Gore was because:

The exit poll from Florida had Gore ahead 52-48

Gore had a 5-6 point lead in Florida in most preelection polls in the state.

Sample precincts in Florida that were reporting were all showing Gore running almost as well as Clinton had in 1996 in the same precincts.

Those are the 3 criteria used to call a state. If the exit polls and preelection polls both show one candidate clearly ahead, the state is called as soon as the polls close. Otherwise, they wait for sample precincts to begin reporting, compare the returns to past returns in those precincts, and then go from there. (Precincts are randomly chosen across the state, and then both the percentages and turnout in those precincts is compared to past years)

Hence, the state was called for Gore. All of the available evidence suggested that he would win the state. Greenfield likened it to the Challenger disaster...the process of calling states had worked so flawlessly for so long that no one had any doubt that it would continue to perform well. It was the first time in history in a presidential race that a state, once called, had to be taken back. The only mistake that had ever been made was in the 1996 Senate race in New Hampshire.

The policy at the time was that no state would be called unless 75% of the polls in the state were closed. (That has been now modified into no state being called unless 100% of the polls are closed). And the panhandle and absentee ballots were being taken into consideration in the call, though part of what threw a monkey wrench into the predictions were that absentee ballots comprised 12% of the statewide total, up from 7% in 1996.

As for 1980, the networks did call it for Reagan early, but 1984, 1988, 1992, and 1996 were also all called before the polls on the West Coast closed. What really hurt the Dems that year was that Carter gave his official concession speech even before the polls on the West Coast closed. Since then, no candidate has conceded before 11 PM Eastern time.

Fair analysis, but it still doesn't explain the 'emigma' of why states like Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota where Gore won by razor-thin margins were called for him right away, but it took upto 1-2 hours before we knew that Bush had won in Georgia, Virginia, West Virginia, Colorado and other states where he won by large margins.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #19 on: March 10, 2004, 07:08:57 PM »

There is a lot of misinformation going around about what happened in Florida in 2000. Having twice read Jeff Greenfield's book "Oh Waiter, One Order of Crow" (highly recommended, probably the best all around book about the 2000 presidential election), I can fill you in on what happened, at least at CNN.

Florida was called for Gore at 7:50 PM, about 10 minutes before the polls in the panhandle closed. The reason it was called for Gore was because:

The exit poll from Florida had Gore ahead 52-48

Gore had a 5-6 point lead in Florida in most preelection polls in the state.

Sample precincts in Florida that were reporting were all showing Gore running almost as well as Clinton had in 1996 in the same precincts.

Those are the 3 criteria used to call a state. If the exit polls and preelection polls both show one candidate clearly ahead, the state is called as soon as the polls close. Otherwise, they wait for sample precincts to begin reporting, compare the returns to past returns in those precincts, and then go from there. (Precincts are randomly chosen across the state, and then both the percentages and turnout in those precincts is compared to past years)

Hence, the state was called for Gore. All of the available evidence suggested that he would win the state. Greenfield likened it to the Challenger disaster...the process of calling states had worked so flawlessly for so long that no one had any doubt that it would continue to perform well. It was the first time in history in a presidential race that a state, once called, had to be taken back. The only mistake that had ever been made was in the 1996 Senate race in New Hampshire.

The policy at the time was that no state would be called unless 75% of the polls in the state were closed. (That has been now modified into no state being called unless 100% of the polls are closed). And the panhandle and absentee ballots were being taken into consideration in the call, though part of what threw a monkey wrench into the predictions were that absentee ballots comprised 12% of the statewide total, up from 7% in 1996.

As for 1980, the networks did call it for Reagan early, but 1984, 1988, 1992, and 1996 were also all called before the polls on the West Coast closed. What really hurt the Dems that year was that Carter gave his official concession speech even before the polls on the West Coast closed. Since then, no candidate has conceded before 11 PM Eastern time.

Fair analysis, but it still doesn't explain the 'emigma' of why states like Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota where Gore won by razor-thin margins were called for him right away, but it took upto 1-2 hours before we knew that Bush had won in Georgia, Virginia, West Virginia, Colorado and other states where he won by large margins.

None of the states you cited were called right away (for Gore or Bush).  Networks generally call races right when the polls close if their exit polls show one candidate winning by more than 10 points.  Less than that and they wait to get sample precincts and compare them to previous elections.  If the exit polls show a race with about 5 points, they won't use the exit poll at all, and rely completely on the official result.

Of the states Bush won:  
Virginia was called 25 minutes after polls closed.
Georgia was called 32 minutes after polls closed.
Colorado was called 1:12 after polls closed.
West Virginia was called 2:41 after polls closed.

Of the states Gore won:
Minnesota was called 36 minutes after polls closed.
Iowa was called 4 hours after polls closed.
Wisconsin was called 9 hours after polls closed!

Where is the bias there?  I got the numbers off the election night timeline on this site.
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Nym90
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« Reply #20 on: March 10, 2004, 07:18:47 PM »

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ARTICLES/ElectionNight/pe2000elecnighttime.php

That should clear up any confusion about when states were actually called. Dave uses CBS's call times, but I think they were all pretty similar since they were all using the same data.

Greenfield explains in the book that the numbers they were getting were in some cases skewed towards Gore. Either the exit polls were a lot different than the preelection polls, (the unusually high number of absentee ballots in many states was a factor in skewing the results, the networks consider absentee ballots but also generally assume that the percentage of votes cast absentee will be about the same as the last election) or the sample precincts (they choose these at random across the state) were producing skewed results. I'm just hypothesizing here, but since Gore did very well in urban areas relative to his showing in rural areas, if the sample precincts were coming from urban areas they could have led the networks to believe Gore was doing better than he actually was; also unusually high turnout in some pro-Gore areas could also tilt the results.
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