Best case scenario
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Author Topic: Best case scenario  (Read 8835 times)
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Miamiu1027
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« on: March 14, 2004, 12:56:44 PM »

Best-case scenario for KErry:



Kerry 416
Bush 122
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1 on: March 14, 2004, 12:58:06 PM »
« Edited: March 14, 2004, 12:58:29 PM by Miamiu1027 »

Best case scenario for Bush:



Bush 461
Kerry 77
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zachman
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« Reply #2 on: March 14, 2004, 01:00:54 PM »

On Kerry's map add Georgia, SD, and Kansas.

On Bush's map add Connecticut and take Vermont away.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #3 on: March 14, 2004, 01:02:30 PM »

On Kerry's map add Georgia, SD, and Kansas.

On Bush's map add Connecticut and take Vermont away.

Vermont is not that heavily Democratic.  Gore only won 50.63% there, compared to 55.91% in Connecticut.
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zachman
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« Reply #4 on: March 14, 2004, 01:03:28 PM »

Bush will lose by quite a bit more there this time.
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Harry
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« Reply #5 on: March 14, 2004, 01:03:59 PM »

Add MT, SD, GA, KY, to Kerry.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #6 on: March 14, 2004, 01:04:00 PM »

Bush will lose by quite a bit more there this time.

Why's that?
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zachman
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« Reply #7 on: March 14, 2004, 01:13:10 PM »

Bush is the anti-independent, and the state is pretty non-partisan, and therefore more Bush hating.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #8 on: March 14, 2004, 01:16:24 PM »

Bush is the anti-independent, and the state is pretty non-partisan, and therefore more Bush hating.

That doesn't make much sense Smiley

Kerry will probably take 53-54% in VT because Nader got 7% there.
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classical liberal
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« Reply #9 on: March 14, 2004, 01:31:54 PM »

Bush won't win MD or NJ.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #10 on: March 14, 2004, 01:35:58 PM »


If Osama is caught or "caught", he might.
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classical liberal
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« Reply #11 on: March 14, 2004, 02:02:10 PM »

Nope
If you think that then you don't see how entrenched Liberalism is becoming in MD and NJ.  Even if Osama is caught, Kerry will win MD and NJ with 60%.
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Nation
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« Reply #12 on: March 14, 2004, 02:04:26 PM »

Maybe not 60%, RWN. Voter turnout in MD's primary was pretty low. I'd say between 55 and 60.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #13 on: March 14, 2004, 02:18:00 PM »

This kind of depends on the defintion of best case scenario. If it turns out that Bush staged 9/11 to be able to selll oil contracts to his and his buddie's companies in Texas after the occupation of Iraq, for example, he could lose rather a lot. Etc. Unless one supposes an extreme of some sort occuring I think Bush can be fairly sure of breaking 200, or at least 150. Kerry is more vulnreable though.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #14 on: March 14, 2004, 03:08:02 PM »

This kind of depends on the defintion of best case scenario. If it turns out that Bush staged 9/11 to be able to selll oil contracts to his and his buddie's companies in Texas after the occupation of Iraq, for example, he could lose rather a lot. Etc. Unless one supposes an extreme of some sort occuring I think Bush can be fairly sure of breaking 200, or at least 150. Kerry is more vulnreable though.

by best case scenario, I mean nothing really really drastic happens, but what could happen is Iraqi civil war, economic downturn, etc.  If something crazy comes out (like if 9-11 was staged, etc.) Bush could lose all 50 states.

If you don't rule anything out, either guy could get 538 EV's.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #15 on: March 14, 2004, 03:10:46 PM »

This kind of depends on the defintion of best case scenario. If it turns out that Bush staged 9/11 to be able to selll oil contracts to his and his buddie's companies in Texas after the occupation of Iraq, for example, he could lose rather a lot. Etc. Unless one supposes an extreme of some sort occuring I think Bush can be fairly sure of breaking 200, or at least 150. Kerry is more vulnreable though.

by best case scenario, I mean nothing really really drastic happens, but what could happen is Iraqi civil war, economic downturn, etc.  If something crazy comes out (like if 9-11 was staged, etc.) Bush could lose all 50 states.

If you don't rule anything out, either guy could get 538 EV's.

OK, well, in that case I think the electorate is so polarized that Bush could count on a lot of states. Let me see...



That would be it I think.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #16 on: March 14, 2004, 03:11:32 PM »

Also Indiana to the Dems, if Bayh is the VP.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #17 on: March 14, 2004, 03:12:12 PM »

Also Indiana to the Dems, if Bayh is the VP.

OK, if he is, and everything else goes the right way I agree it could happen.
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Ben.
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« Reply #18 on: March 14, 2004, 03:17:25 PM »

I doubt that Indiana would go to the Dem even with Bayh on the tickker having said that where he on the ticket IN would be very interesting to watch...it could certianly be close....Generally your map is pretty much the greatest extent to which the Dems could hope to beat any candidate, however i wonder if GA and IN are going for Bush why not NC even with Edwards the state is as conservative as either IN or GA...
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zachman
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« Reply #19 on: March 14, 2004, 03:22:18 PM »

Indiana polled only +6 for Bush recently. It will start moving towards parity.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #20 on: March 14, 2004, 03:23:01 PM »

I doubt that Indiana would go to the Dem even with Bayh on the tickker having said that where he on the ticket IN would be very interesting to watch...it could certianly be close....Generally your map is pretty much the greatest extent to which the Dems could hope to beat any candidate, however i wonder if GA and IN are going for Bush why not NC even with Edwards the state is as conservative as either IN or GA...

We're talking best-case scenario.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #21 on: March 14, 2004, 03:23:43 PM »

I doubt that Indiana would go to the Dem even with Bayh on the tickker having said that where he on the ticket IN would be very interesting to watch...it could certianly be close....Generally your map is pretty much the greatest extent to which the Dems could hope to beat any candidate, however i wonder if GA and IN are going for Bush why not NC even with Edwards the state is as conservative as either IN or GA...

This is the best case scenario for the DEms, since that's the point of the thread... Wink
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Ben.
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« Reply #22 on: March 14, 2004, 03:25:54 PM »

Yeah i know...i was just saying that if you have GA and IN as GOP in the best case senario then NC would also be in the GOP collum as its on a parr with both GA and IN in terms of its conservatism...  
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Gustaf
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« Reply #23 on: March 14, 2004, 03:38:56 PM »

Yeah i know...i was just saying that if you have GA and IN as GOP in the best case senario then NC would also be in the GOP collum as its on a parr with both GA and IN in terms of its conservatism...  

Yeah, that's actually right. GA is in fact more Dem than NC, judging byu previous results at least...but the map looks more coherent now, wouldn't you say? Smiley
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #24 on: March 14, 2004, 05:55:24 PM »

These maps aren't accurate.  Not in the least.
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