Bush +8 (or +3) - NYTimes/CBS News
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 03:10:30 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
  Bush +8 (or +3) - NYTimes/CBS News
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Bush +8 (or +3) - NYTimes/CBS News  (Read 1757 times)
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,656


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: March 16, 2004, 10:40:04 AM »
« edited: March 16, 2004, 11:20:06 AM by Vorlon »

Presdident George Bush Leads Senator John Kerry by 8 points in a hypothetical three way match up, or by 3 points in a head to head matchup


http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/03/15/opinion/polls/main606465.shtml


In a three way race...

John Kerry 38%
George W. Bush 46%
Ralph Nader 7%

In a Head-to-Head

George W, Bush - 46%
John Kerry - 43%

Interesting snippet from the poll....

In assessing the candidates’ public statements, half the  voters (51%) think Bush says what he believes most of the time, but 45 percent think he says what people want to hear.

Evaluations of Kerry are much less positive on this count. 57 percent think he just says what people want to hear, while 33 percent think he says what he believes.

Truth in polling alert!!!!
IN 2000, the CBS/NYTimes poll was very accurate, their final call was Gore +1%, which very closely matched the actual result of Gore +0.52%

However in the previous 4 presidential races CBS/NYTimes polling was just wretched.  In 1980, the NYTimes poll had Carter beating Reagan, In 1984 Mondale would narrowly lose to Reagan, and in 1992 Dukaskis/Bush would be a sqeeker.. Finally, in 1992 and 1996 Clinton would have double digit victories...  In every single presidential race from 1980 to 1996, CBS News/NYTimes was waaaaaaay, waaaaaaay outside the margin of error...

Did CBS/NYTimes actually fix a clearly screwed up methodology in 2000 and thus get the correct result? - Or was it just a case of even a broken clock being right twice a day...?
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,701
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: March 16, 2004, 11:57:27 AM »

Any poll that gives Nader 7% I take with a grain of salt. There is no way Nader is getting more than what he got last time, much less almost three times that.
Logged
angus
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,423
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: March 16, 2004, 11:58:47 AM »

1206 adults (986 of them registered) over five nights.  Don't know how they selected and weighted, but it could be telling.  Here's an interesting tidbit from that poll:

WAS IRAQ WAR WORTH THE COSTS?
Yes 42%
No 51%

But what does that mean?  I was working in Amsterdam during the buildup, complaining about Preemption like everyone else.  I still think it was a colossally bad idea, but I'll still vote for Bush.  Can't read too much into these polls.  I read all polls as a measure of something.  It's just hard to figure out what that something is sometimes.  My guess is that CBS doesn't push for a response, if you give them an initial DK/No opinion, like the others do.

Here's another:
IS YOUR MIND MADE UP?
(Registered voters backing a candidate)

Yes Total 71%
Kerry voters 70%
Bush voters 76%

No Total 29%
Kerry voters 30%
Bush voters 23%

I guess they both have some room to trip the other one up.  Thus the negativity.

There is only one poll that matters.
Logged
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,656


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: March 16, 2004, 12:07:51 PM »
« Edited: March 16, 2004, 12:08:16 PM by Vorlon »

Any poll that gives Nader 7% I take with a grain of salt. There is no way Nader is getting more than what he got last time, much less almost three times that.

This far out, other than the usual 1 or 2% fringe vote, any votes for somebody other than the two main candidates should really be counted as "undecided" - they are just "parking" their vote till they actually make up their mind.

To me I read it as follows...

Bush got 46% with out without Nader on the "ballot" - Bush has pretty solif support.

Kerry, is "sorta kinda" the pick of maybe 5 or 6%, but they are not really sure.. this 5 or 6% are "parked" with Nader, at least for now...
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: March 16, 2004, 01:10:13 PM »

What was the % undecided in the poll?
Logged
Nation
of_thisnation
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,555
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: March 16, 2004, 01:16:35 PM »

I can't take any poll seriousley that gives Nader 7% -- with the big support he had last time (2+ million) he got nearly 3%. There's now way the guy gets close to five million votes.
Logged
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,146


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: March 16, 2004, 02:13:34 PM »


One interesting thing about this poll is that Bush has not gained support, but rather Kerry has lost it (compared to their poll last month).  This shows up in both the vote question and Kerry's favorability.

Does anyone on this board plan to vote for Nader?  Does anyone know anyone planning on voting for Nader?  Nader draws 13% of the vote among independent, but only has 20% favorable among independents.  That's pretty strange.
Logged
CTguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 742


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: March 16, 2004, 02:44:28 PM »

I don't plan on voting for Nader and I voted for him last time.  I don't even think he will get on the ballot in most states.

Does anyone know anything about that angle?  If he is on his way to getting on any state ballots?  I don't think it is going to happen.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: March 16, 2004, 03:20:49 PM »

I don't plan on voting for Nader and I voted for him last time.  I don't even think he will get on the ballot in most states.

Does anyone know anything about that angle?  If he is on his way to getting on any state ballots?  I don't think it is going to happen.

If can be kept out of the close ones it could be decisive. I'm all for him running in state like MA and NY. But N-O-T Florida... Tongue
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.031 seconds with 13 queries.