What 2000 states are you most worried about your canidate losing?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I'm mostly worried about Pennsylvania.  It's very democratic around Philly (around 80%), but the entire middle of the state is like Alabama.  GOP registration went up, too.  Something tells me Kerry is going to lose it.  I really hope not.

Another is New Mexico.  The 2000 margin was around 300 votes, and it's not like the state has been suffering at all.  I hope Richardson can rally the party out there (not as VP, I'm for Edwards)

And to a lesser extent, Wisconsin.  But it is still fairly liberal, and it was one of those primary states with a lot of coverage.  I'm not 100% sure Kerry's going to win there, but I'll still be very surprised if Bush does.  

The rest seems safe.  I can guarentee you Washington and Oregon aren't going anywhere.  The Northeast is going to vote 60% for Kerry.  I laugh everytime the GOP goes California dreamin'.  Illinois is solid.  Michigan also seems out of reach for Bush.  

[California Dreamer]

well as I have said in another post, I think that it is likely that Bush and Kerry can 'trade' a few small states like WV, NH, IA, WS, NM...and I am not to worried about them

like you I am most worried about Kerry losing a big one

If Kerry loses PA....I dont see how he can win (it seems highly unlikely he would win FL and OH, but lose PA)

[ian]

I agree with you.  I am very worried about Pennsylvania.  I do believe that we will win it in the end, but I am still worried that we will lose it.  Other than that, I am pretty sure that we will keep all of the others.  MI, WI, and MN all look pretty solid for us.  NM looks shaky, but I am very sure that we will keep it in the long run.  Republicans should be really darn scared b/c we are closing in on NH, AZ, NV, WV, FL, OH, among many, MANY others.  They're ours!!!

[opebo]

Ohio.  I'm not really worried about FL or NH, or even WV.  Certainly not MO or AZ/NV or any Southern state.  Ohio is it.

[Ben.]

Pennsylvania – After seeing so many polls showing it close. We cannot win without PA unless we win both OH and FL imho...

Wisconsin – As with PA, polling has worried me, but then it WI and it will be close pretty much no matter what. As with PA this state represents 10 electoral votes we will sorly need, however despite this and despite WI being very important i think that at a strech we can win without it, unlike PA, however losing WI is not a desirable situation to be in IMHO and it would be difficult if not impossible to win without WI...

New Mexico – Bush wooing of the Hispanic voters leads me to think this is a solid Bush pickup even with where the polls are at the moment (neck and neck)… But we can afford the loss of NM unlike PA and to a lesser extent WI...

[The Vorlon]

Democratic States in Grave Danger:

(in order of devasting impact to the campaign)

Pennsylvania

I have Bush very marginally ahead right now

Wisconsin

Currently, at best, a dead heat, perhaps Bush is oh so slightly ahead...

Iowa

Both sides are spending heavily - that tells me, polls not withstanding, it will be close

New Mexico

Gore won by 377 votes.  Flip a coin.

Oregon

I expect Kerry to prevail, even if only because Nader voters come home.  Bush may make Kerry spend some money here, however.

Minnesota

If this one gets legitimately close, Kerry is in DEEP trouble...

Bush States in Grave Danger:

(in order of devasting impact to the campaign)

Ohio

IT is just about impossible to construct a (reasonable)scenario where Bush loses Ohio, and still wins the election

The GOP will go too total absolute war to save this state.

Florida

I think Bush is kinda safe actually in Florida, but again, hard to see how he wins without it.

West Virginia

A natural Democratic state.  I expect it will flip back to "home" and go for Kerry.

New Hampshire

Recent polls do have Bush marginally ahead, but this is Kerry's backyard.  I have to think this one is no more than 60/40 likelyhood that Bush holds.

[Lunar]

Yes, if Bush loses Ohio then his only hope is to edge out a victory with the little guys.  Something like this: (Reps -270 to 268)



However, if Kerry loses the big P then I can't see a victory without a surprise showing in Florida and some little ones or a surprise sweep of the Southwest.

[MHS2002]

Ohio, Ohio, Ohio

Florida/West Virginia/New Hampshire as well.

[© tweed]

PA, definitely.  If we lose that it's gonna be tough.

[TeePee4Prez]

Pennsylvania – After seeing so many polls showing it close. We cannot win without PA unless we win both OH and FL imho...

Wisconsin – As with PA, polling has worried me, but then it WI and it will be close pretty much no matter what. As with PA this state represents 10 electoral votes we will sorly need, however despite this and despite WI being very important i think that at a strech we can win without it, unlike PA, however losing WI is not a desirable situation to be in IMHO and it would be difficult if not impossible to win without WI...

New Mexico – Bush wooing of the Hispanic voters leads me to think this is a solid Bush pickup even with where the polls are at the moment (neck and neck)… But we can afford the loss of NM unlike PA and to a lesser extent WI...

There are some quirks with polling....

1.  Weatlhier people are more likely to have phones
2.  PA has A LOT of seniors who likely only have one land-line phone  yet vote in record numbers
3.  Gore was very weak, economy was better then and despite that - he won by 4 points!
4.  People in NE Philly and the suburbs are generally socially left-centrists with exceptions those being the seniors who will likely vote Kerry because of vets' issues, Social Security, and Medicare.
    4a.  Democrat backlash against Street may work against Kerry
    4b.  PA-13 polls which includes generally white NE Philly and a   good part of traditionally GOP and wealthy Montco has Kerry leading by 8.

I think Rendell will convince the population dense Southeast to vote for Dem Congressmen/women along with Hoeffel(Specter may amke it close).  Kerry by 10 in PA.  Central PA can not counter this.  This is considering the Democrats and Rendell get their act together.

[angus]

PA, definitely.  If we lose that it's gonna be tough.

I always though the far east and far west of that state would carry it for the Democrats for one more go 'round.  After that, watch out!

[StevenNick]

Ohio.  I'm not really worried about FL or NH, or even WV.  Certainly not MO or AZ/NV or any Southern state.  Ohio is it.

I agree completely.  I don't think I really worry about any state other than Ohio.

But I think in the end Ohio won't really matter because we'll pick up Pennsylvania and maybe Wisconsin, Minnesota, and New Mexico as well.

[StevenNick]

I think Pennsylvania is going to be a fascinating state to watch on Nov. 2.  Not only will it one of the two big battleground states up for grabs in the presidential election, the senate race will be interesting too.  I thing Toomey is going to pull off an upset on the 27th and beat Spector.  That'll make the race interesting.

[Lunar]

But I think in the end Ohio won't really matter because we'll pick up Pennsylvania and maybe Wisconsin, Minnesota, and New Mexico as well.

Pennyslvania will not go Bush if Ohio goes Democratic.  Pennsylvania will be a few points less for Bush than whatever he gets in Ohio.

[Rococo4]

For us Republicans, I worry most about WV.  It seems impossible for Bush to pull it out again.  I thought NH was in the bag for F. Kerry, but everything I have seen inidcates Bush is still strong there.

As an Ohio resident, I feel strongly that Bush will win here, though it will be close.

For the Dems, I think they should worry about Florida and New Mexico.

However, if there are alot more days like the past few in Iraq, none of these states will matter because Kerry will win in a landslide.

[??????????]

Florida going Kerry? Yeah and the Democrats were going to SWEEP JEB out of office in 2002. When they sat back and realized how good Jeb has been for our state they elected him by 13+% points. President Bush is very comfortable to win this one IMHO.

[Lunar]

This far back Florida is hardly comfortably one side or another.  It's obviously one of the big tossups for 04.

I think Bush has an edge though because I think Gore already got the most he could out of the base, maximizing his potential and leaving little room for more.

[??????????]

Just out of my own personal experience I know of at least 10 Gore voters who are going to be voting Bush because of his stance on National Security and Terrorism.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wisconsin and New Mexico.
I'm not *that* worried about PA (GOP registration has gone up... but this is to do with the Senate race)
Or Minnesota (Machine politrickery in the Duluth area has saved plenty of Democrat Presidential candidates in MN)
---
GOP's most vunerable state is WV

[??????????]

I really can't understand why WVA should be Democrat at all. They are religious conservative/social conservatives, believe in gun ownership. The only reason I can see them even being Democrat is because of the Unionized coal mines which brainwash their employees to vote Democrat. I have a very low opinion of Coal mine operators as they are the same ones that gave my grandad black lung at 13.

[© tweed]

I really can't understand why WVA should be Democrat at all. They are religious conservative/social conservatives, believe in gun ownership. The only reason I can see them even being Democrat is because of the Unionized coal mines which brainwash their employees to vote Democrat. I have a very low opinion of Coal mine operators as they are the same ones that gave my grandad black lung at 13.

ECONOMICS

If the voted on social issues, the Dems never would have won WV.

[??????????]

Union brainwashing. The Unions tell them they are for them and really are not. Unions are the most outdated organization in the U.S. right now.

[elcorazon]

For the Dems, I think they should worry about Florida and New Mexico.

Is this an admission that Gore actually won Florida in 2000. lol

[??????????]

Tell that to the Commander and Thief!!
He was selected not elected!!

LOL, I still can't believe people won't let that garbage go.

[© tweed]

Union brainwashing. The Unions tell them they are for them and really are not. Unions are the most outdated organization in the U.S. right now.

Don't evn try to tell me that the GOP will stand up for the coal miners.  That's a joke.