However many polls have shown a dead heat in FL. If they love Jeb so much, shouldn't they reflect that even at this early stage?
Florida is a bitch to poll for the following reasons:
1) High non-citizen population (+/- 17% or so)
2) Snow Birds - Do they vote in Florida - or else where?
3) Language Issues due to hispanic/cuban populations
4) Large number of military families - Military folks actually living on base in Iraq or Germany or Korea or where ever usual pick Florida as their US "home" due to no Florida state income tax.
5) Felons 3-4% of population - cannot vote in Florida.
All these quirks make it a tough state to poll.
There have been 3 polls done recently.
ARG and Rasmussen had the state tied (ARG Bush +1, Rasmussen Kerry +1) while Mason Dixon had Bush +8
Mason Dixon is clearly the best of these three firms plus
Mason Dixon started in Florida, grew up in Florida, and frankly are the pretty much undisputed and acknowledged Gods of polling Florida. The have decades of local experience and on the ground knowledge to sort out all the kinks and quirks in terms of how to properly poll the state.
Plus Mason Dixon is good at State polls.
In 2002 they did 27 state races for Senate & Governor. They got 26 right. (17 out of 17 on Senate races)
By contrast Zogby did 17 races and got only 12 right.
Rule of thumb - if the polls are unclear - go with the Mason-Dixon - You will be right a whole lot more than you're wrong.