Primary scenario

[Flying Dog]

Make your own primary scenario.

Gephardt wins Iowa by 5-10 points.Dean 2nd. Kerry beats out edwards by 1-5 points The rest are below 10%.

Dean wins NH by 10-20 points.  Clark grabs 2nd barely. Gephardt inches ahead of kerry by 1-5 points. Lieberman leads the back of the pack with 7% The rest are down.

After Nh kerry drops out.

SC-Gephardt wins, clark barely loses to gephardt. Dean is behind clark and infront of of edwards.

After SC edwards and braun drops out.

The rest of febuary 3rd
Arizona-Dean
Delaware-Dean
Missouri-Gephardt
New Mexico-Gerphardt
North Dakoda-Lieberman
Oklahoma-Gephardt

Clark and Lieberman drop out

Gephardt wins michigan by 10-15 points
securing a lock on the nomination

[MAS117]

JTFdem I have to totally disagree with you. Have you looked at any numbers? Theres no way Gephardt is taking Iowa, I dont see Kerry dropping out after NH.

[© tweed]

Dean wins Iowa and NH fairly easily.  Kerry drops out of the race.

SC- Clark wins, keeping him alive.

Gephardt, edwards drop out.

Feb. 3:

Arizona-Dean
Delaware-Dean
Missouri-Clark
New Mexico-Dean
North Dakota- Clark
Oklahoma-Clark

Dean wins the nomination.

[StevenNick]

I think Gephardt will lose Iowa by about 5 points, have a weak showing on Feb. 3, then drop out.

I think you're dead on in your New Hampshire predictions, though.

Lieberman will drop out shortly after Feb. 3 when he doesn't win Oklahoma or Arizona.

I think after Feb. 3, the field will be narrowed down to Dean, Clark, Edwards (with Sharpton, Braun, and maybe Kucinich in the race until the end).  Edwards will start to pick up some steam toward the end of the race, but by then it will too late.  I think that by the middle of March, Dean will have secured a majority of delegates.  Clark will come in a surprisingly close second at the convention with Edwards a distand third.

[jravnsbo]

Dean wins IA, Gep 2d , Kerry 3rd, Edwards 4th

Gephardt drops out after not delivering on promise to win

Dean wins NH, clark 2d, Kerry 3rd

Kerry drops out ( if he could move to 2d in IA he would bounce into 2d in NH and survive for  alittle while)

Feb 3

SC- Clark
AZ- Dean
OK- Dean
MO-Dean
ND-Clark
NM-Dean
DE- Clark

Dean and Clark slug it out but Dean wins in the end.

[Beet]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Where did you get Clark winning in Delaware but losing to Dean in Oklahoma and Missouri?

[jravnsbo]

Gep is 1st in MO and Dean is second, so when Gep drops out, Dean is leader.

Dean is leading in OK, last poll I saw.

DE- last one, I punted and didn't really care.  Same with ND, which I see as Gep if he is around, but IO don';t think he will be, so read some articles that Dean's organization there is growing a bit.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Where did you get Clark winning in Delaware but losing to Dean in Oklahoma and Missouri?

[Dave from Michigan]

whats the earlist date that we could know who the democratic candidate is.

[jravnsbo]

Well not sure about "clinching" it with delegates, but Dems are hoping for a nominee to essentially have it locked up by March 10.

whats the earlist date that we could know who the democratic candidate is.

[MAS117]

its amazing how fast people respond to postings

[Inmate Trump]

its amazing how fast people respond to postings

lol  I know!  It's hard to keep up sometimes.

[Gustaf]

its amazing how fast people respond to postings

lol  I know!  It's hard to keep up sometimes.

"people", it's basically some people, like JR or Miami who can be really, really fast sometimes. Not everyone are...

[jravnsbo]

well we are Supreme Gods

its amazing how fast people respond to postings

lol  I know!  It's hard to keep up sometimes.

"people", it's basically some people, like JR or Miami who can be really, really fast sometimes. Not everyone are...

[StevenNick]

I guess I was wrong when I predicted earlier in some thread that Clark's campaign would "shrivel up and die."  It seems now that Clark is going to be the candidate who emerges as the "anti-Dean."  Unfortunately for Clark and the democratic party, I think its too late to stop Dean.

Dick Morris wrote an excellent article recently in which he makes the case that Dean is really unstoppable, that he is too far ahead in fund raising and organization, and that the primary calendar is so front loaded, all of which means that none of the candidates can catch up with Dean.  I predict that after February 3, when the field will have been significantly narrowed, Clark and Dean will trade off victories, but in all the states that matter, Dean will consistently finishes 5 points ahead of Clark.  In the end, the primary race is going to be a lot closer than I had originally surmised.

[StevenNick]

But ultimatly Dean will win the nomination.

[M]

DC- don't forget this one, the media'll be all over it. I think it'll be a big Deaniac prize, but 96% of blacks voted for Jesse Jackson in 1988, so it's possible it could go to Sharpton (yuck!).

Iowa- low Dean victory. I think Gep drops out now- not because he doesn't think he could do OK on Feb. 3, but because he's really out of money.

NH- Dean wins huge. Clark in 2nd. Kerry drops or, if he doesn't, it doesn't matter because ge's down and out now.

Feb. 3
SC- Probably Clark, but Dean's momentum from January could carry him through. Outsider is are Sharpton (if there is a high black turnout and they vote solidly black). Edwards is just done, he'll drop out now, MIGHT be a running mate.
AZ- Clark
DE- Dean
OK- Clark
MO- Dean, I think
ND- Clark
NM- Dean
Lieberman drops now.

Rest of primary- Dean wins most big states, Either Clark is a fairly good challenger but eventually loses, or Clark flops and Dean sweeps. Outside possibility of Sharpton winning several Deep Southern states. Dean is the nominee.

[jravnsbo]

The problem will be money eventually.  I want an anti-dean to emerge and cause Dean to spend more money, but ultimately Dean will be the nominee.  I hear Clark is spending like 5 million in NH alone before the primary.

I guess I was wrong when I predicted earlier in some thread that Clark's campaign would "shrivel up and die."  It seems now that Clark is going to be the candidate who emerges as the "anti-Dean."  Unfortunately for Clark and the democratic party, I think its too late to stop Dean.

Dick Morris wrote an excellent article recently in which he makes the case that Dean is really unstoppable, that he is too far ahead in fund raising and organization, and that the primary calendar is so front loaded, all of which means that none of the candidates can catch up with Dean.  I predict that after February 3, when the field will have been significantly narrowed, Clark and Dean will trade off victories, but in all the states that matter, Dean will consistently finishes 5 points ahead of Clark.  In the end, the primary race is going to be a lot closer than I had originally surmised.

[Beet]

I think a lot of donors are waiting until the nomination battle ends before they commit money because they dont want to commit money to someone and then have that person lose the nomination.

[NorthernDog]

IOWA:  Dean 36%  GEPHARDT 32% Kerry 18%
            [All others below 15% ]
NH:   Dean 41% Clark 26% Kerry 20%
         All others less than 10%
SC:  Sharpton 30% Dean 25% Clark 22%
        Edwards 18% Others < 5%
Remember - approx. half of primary voters in SC
are African American.  Not many white liberals.

Dean and Clark split remaining primaries but eventually Dean wins.  

[Gustaf]

Lol, well put!

well we are Supreme Gods

its amazing how fast people respond to postings

lol  I know!  It's hard to keep up sometimes.

"people", it's basically some people, like JR or Miami who can be really, really fast sometimes. Not everyone are...

[jravnsbo]

But Clark and rest of the field ( outside of Kerry and Dean) now have caps on how much they can spend and raise during primary season as they took matching funds.  When it runs out they are done.  Plus the longer it goes on the more Dean has to spend vs the democrats.

I think a lot of donors are waiting until the nomination battle ends before they commit money because they dont want to commit money to someone and then have that person lose the nomination.

[Mort from NewYawk]

SC:  Sharpton 30% Dean 25% Clark 22%
        Edwards 18% Others < 5%
Remember - approx. half of primary voters in SC
are African American.  Not many white liberals.

I can't see Sharpton getting much black turnout outside the Northeast. There is absolutely no comparison between his campaign and the excitement engendered by Jackson, who was a significant player in his two campaigns.

[jravnsbo]

Well Sharpton is consistently running around 12% in SC, 2d in most every poll I've seen.

SC:  Sharpton 30% Dean 25% Clark 22%
        Edwards 18% Others < 5%
Remember - approx. half of primary voters in SC
are African American.  Not many white liberals.

I can't see Sharpton getting much black turnout outside the Northeast. There is absolutely no comparison between his campaign and the excitement engendered by Jackson, who was a significant player in his two campaigns.

[Wakie]

DC - Pretty much a Sharpton/Dean split.  Unexciting and not noticed.

1/19 Iowa Caucuses- Dean wins, Kerry surprises with a 2nd place finish and draws much media attention.

Gephardt pulls out.  Makes no endorsement but privately leans towards Leiberman.

1/27 NH Primary- Another Dean win.  Riding high off the free pub from his strong finish in Iowa, Kerry finishes 2nd again.  Clark & Edwards surprise many with strong finishes.

Braun drops, implies she will support whomever the Democratic candidate for President may be.

1/31 DE "non-binding" primary- Massive Dean victory.

Kucinich drops, throws his support behind Dean.

Feb 3
-------
SC - Edwards & Sharpton are the big winners
MO - Fairly evenly divided state with Clark edging out Dean and Edwards
AZ - Clark & Kerry split the state.  Dean finishes very poorly
WA - Dean & Kerry split the state.

2/7 MI Caucuses - Clark/Dean/Kerry split

2/10 VA Primary - Clark win, Edwards has strong showing

Leiberman and Sharpton drop.  Leiberman endorses Clark.  Sharpton stays silent.

2/17 OK Primary - Clark/Dean split

2/24 MI Primary - Dean/Edwards split

Kerry drops.  Endorses Edwards.

3/2 Super Tuesday 1
New England, New York, & California - Huge Dean victories

3/9 Super Tuesday 2
Florida, Texas, and the South - Pretty much comes down to Dean and Edwards.

[© tweed]

If anyone can stop dean now, it's Clark.