Primary scenario

[Huckleberry Finn]

The Associated Press
Updated: 3:28 p.m. ET Jan. 09, 2004DES MOINES, Iowa - Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin endorsed Howard Dean for president on Friday, calling him the “kind of plain-spoken Democrat we need” and giving a key boost to the embattled front-runner 10 days before the state’s kick-off caucuses.

[DarthKosh]

The Associated Press
Updated: 3:28 p.m. ET Jan. 09, 2004DES MOINES, Iowa - Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin endorsed Howard Dean for president on Friday, calling him the “kind of plain-spoken Democrat we need” and giving a key boost to the embattled front-runner 10 days before the state’s kick-off caucuses.

Plain spoken democrat must mean party suicide to Harkin.

[Nation]

Hello everyone

 I just found the site a few days ago and the forums seemed rather lively, so I figured I'd drop on by. 18-year old liberal from Maryland.

Although DC will be a Sharpton/Dean split, I believe it will get noticed, seeing as the media seems to pick up EVERYTHING Dean does and says, and even a "victory" in DC (of all places) will generate something.  

It should be a very interesting race between Dean and Clark (until Dean wins the big states and takes the reigns on Super Tuesday).  

[NorthernDog]

Hello everyone

 I just found the site a few days ago and the forums seemed rather lively, so I figured I'd drop on by. 18-year old liberal from Maryland.

Welcome - most of us don't bite so don't be afraid to post, as long as it's not too personally offensive.  Do you think it will take until Super Tueday for Dean to wrap it up?  Some think he'll run away with it starting 1-19.

[Nation]

That'll most likely be the case, but there will be a couple candidates that won't back down and may actually surprise. Gephardt will be done with after Iowa, but Edwards/Clark will hold strong in the south, and still generate some media attention.

[© tweed]

Hello everyone

 I just found the site a few days ago and the forums seemed rather lively, so I figured I'd drop on by. 18-year old liberal from Maryland.

Welcome - most of us don't bite so don't be afraid to post, as long as it's not too personally offensive.  Do you think it will take until Super Tueday for Dean to wrap it up?  Some think he'll run away with it starting 1-19.

Jravnsbo bites.  So be careful.

[Gustaf]

Hello everyone

 I just found the site a few days ago and the forums seemed rather lively, so I figured I'd drop on by. 18-year old liberal from Maryland.

Welcome - most of us don't bite so don't be afraid to post, as long as it's not too personally offensive.  Do you think it will take until Super Tueday for Dean to wrap it up?  Some think he'll run away with it starting 1-19.

Just like to extend my welcome as well...be sure to check out the recreational threads further down the list, that's where we try to have fun...

[Nation]

Will do

[jravnsbo]

CHOMP!  hey what's up with the Wyoming state AV?  

Beautiful state love it.

Hello everyone

 I just found the site a few days ago and the forums seemed rather lively, so I figured I'd drop on by. 18-year old liberal from Maryland.

Welcome - most of us don't bite so don't be afraid to post, as long as it's not too personally offensive.  Do you think it will take until Super Tueday for Dean to wrap it up?  Some think he'll run away with it starting 1-19.

Jravnsbo bites.  So be careful.

[jravnsbo]

Welcome.

They just say I bite as I called them on numerous discussions about nothing.  

Just offer good discussion and we all benefit.

Will do

[NHPolitico]

Make your own primary scenario.

Gephardt wins Iowa by 5-10 points.Dean 2nd. Kerry beats out edwards by 1-5 points The rest are below 10%.

Dean wins NH by 10-20 points.  Clark grabs 2nd barely. Gephardt inches ahead of kerry by 1-5 points. Lieberman leads the back of the pack with 7% The rest are down.

After Nh kerry drops out.

SC-Gephardt wins, clark barely loses to gephardt. Dean is behind clark and infront of of edwards.

After SC edwards and braun drops out.

The rest of febuary 3rd
Arizona-Dean
Delaware-Dean
Missouri-Gephardt
New Mexico-Gerphardt
North Dakoda-Lieberman
Oklahoma-Gephardt

Clark and Lieberman drop out

Gephardt wins michigan by 10-15 points
securing a lock on the nomination

Dean will not lose a contest until after 2/4. Dems will get buyer's remorse and try to give someone else a chance. It will be Clark who will win both TN and VA. Dean bounces back with wins in NV and WA and then wins without a loss until March 2nd. Clark wins Ohio and Deans wins every other contest that day. At this point, Dean has the nomination in the bag and Clark pulls out.

[jravnsbo]

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/politics/7692639.htm

just a map of the primaries.

[© tweed]

CHOMP!  hey what's up with the Wyoming state AV?  

Dammit!  Everyone is asking me this now.

I like Wyoming because Wyoming is rectangular.

[jravnsbo]

See why I held off for so long in putting up an AV?!

Its square, that's simplistic. and could lead to many openings. he he

CHOMP!  hey what's up with the Wyoming state AV?  

Dammit!  Everyone is asking me this now.

I like Wyoming because Wyoming is rectangular.

[© tweed]

Actually, if I did move to Wyoming, my vote in 2000 would have been weighed 2.84 times as heavily.  The damn electoral college....

[NHPolitico]

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/politics/7692639.htm

just a map of the primaries.

Good find.

[jravnsbo]

thanks read an article in miami herald, hoping Kat Harris wises up and stays in her safe house seat.

the papers address to follow fl politics is www.miami.com

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/politics/7692639.htm

just a map of the primaries.

Good find.

[NHPolitico]

Make your own primary scenario.

Gephardt wins Iowa by 5-10 points.Dean 2nd. Kerry beats out edwards by 1-5 points The rest are below 10%.

Dean wins NH by 10-20 points.  Clark grabs 2nd barely. Gephardt inches ahead of kerry by 1-5 points. Lieberman leads the back of the pack with 7% The rest are down.

After Nh kerry drops out.

SC-Gephardt wins, clark barely loses to gephardt. Dean is behind clark and infront of of edwards.

After SC edwards and braun drops out.

The rest of febuary 3rd
Arizona-Dean
Delaware-Dean
Missouri-Gephardt
New Mexico-Gerphardt
North Dakoda-Lieberman
Oklahoma-Gephardt

Clark and Lieberman drop out

Gephardt wins michigan by 10-15 points
securing a lock on the nomination

Kerry has begun to attack Clark in NH. He doesn't want to come in third, I guess...

MANCHESTER (AP) -- Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, the national chairwoman of John Kerry's campaign, renewed criticism Monday of Wesley Clark's praise for the Bush administration two years ago.

Kerry, the Massachusetts senator, and Clark are battling for second place behind Howard Dean in the New Hampshire primary in the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Shaheen, former state party chairman Joe Keefe and state Senate Democratic leader Sylvia Larsen, pointed out that Clark was a keynote speaker at a Republican fundraiser in 2001, and that he praised President Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney and other members of the Bush administration.

They played a video of the May 2001 address at an Arkansas GOP fund-raiser.

"I'm very glad we've got the great team in office, men like Colin Powell, Don Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney, Condoleezza Rice, Paul O'Neill -- people I know very well -- our President George W. Bush. We need them there, because we've got some tough challenges ahead in Europe," Clark said in the speech.

Shaheen said "the issue here is this candidate is not a Democrat," and doesn't support Democratic values.

"I welcome Wesley Clark to our party," she said. "But I just don't think someone who raised money for Republicans, praised George W. Bush after he had begun his systematic reversal of Bill Clinton's policies" should be the Democratic nominee, she said.

Clark, responded Monday: "When you're attacked like this, it's the sincerest form of flattery in politics."

Earlier, in November, Clark explained his comments.

"I worked for Colin Powell. I like him. I worked around Rumsfeld and Cheney when I was a White House fellow. And I never wanted to see America fail, no matter who's in charge. Like most Americans, I wanted that team to succeed," the retired Army general had said.

He said he didn't accuse Bush of failing at the time "because I had hopes they would move forward," Clark said.

[12th Doctor]

Make your own primary scenario.

Gephardt wins Iowa by 5-10 points.Dean 2nd. Kerry beats out edwards by 1-5 points The rest are below 10%.

Dean wins NH by 10-20 points.  Clark grabs 2nd barely. Gephardt inches ahead of kerry by 1-5 points. Lieberman leads the back of the pack with 7% The rest are down.

After Nh kerry drops out.

SC-Gephardt wins, clark barely loses to gephardt. Dean is behind clark and infront of of edwards.

After SC edwards and braun drops out.

The rest of febuary 3rd
Arizona-Dean
Delaware-Dean
Missouri-Gephardt
New Mexico-Gerphardt
North Dakoda-Lieberman
Oklahoma-Gephardt

Clark and Lieberman drop out

Gephardt wins michigan by 10-15 points
securing a lock on the nomination

Kerry has begun to attack Clark in NH. He doesn't want to come in third, I guess...

MANCHESTER (AP) -- Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, the national chairwoman of John Kerry's campaign, renewed criticism Monday of Wesley Clark's praise for the Bush administration two years ago.

Kerry, the Massachusetts senator, and Clark are battling for second place behind Howard Dean in the New Hampshire primary in the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Shaheen, former state party chairman Joe Keefe and state Senate Democratic leader Sylvia Larsen, pointed out that Clark was a keynote speaker at a Republican fundraiser in 2001, and that he praised President Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney and other members of the Bush administration.

They played a video of the May 2001 address at an Arkansas GOP fund-raiser.

"I'm very glad we've got the great team in office, men like Colin Powell, Don Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney, Condoleezza Rice, Paul O'Neill -- people I know very well -- our President George W. Bush. We need them there, because we've got some tough challenges ahead in Europe," Clark said in the speech.

Shaheen said "the issue here is this candidate is not a Democrat," and doesn't support Democratic values.

"I welcome Wesley Clark to our party," she said. "But I just don't think someone who raised money for Republicans, praised George W. Bush after he had begun his systematic reversal of Bill Clinton's policies" should be the Democratic nominee, she said.

Clark, responded Monday: "When you're attacked like this, it's the sincerest form of flattery in politics."

Earlier, in November, Clark explained his comments.

"I worked for Colin Powell. I like him. I worked around Rumsfeld and Cheney when I was a White House fellow. And I never wanted to see America fail, no matter who's in charge. Like most Americans, I wanted that team to succeed," the retired Army general had said.

He said he didn't accuse Bush of failing at the time "because I had hopes they would move forward," Clark said.

Here's my prediction:

Gepardt loses Iowa and comes in fourth in New Hampshire.  Gepardt drops out.  Any hope that moderate or "left-leaning" Democrats had of beating Dean are shattered.  Dean carries momentum strait to the convention and gets destroyed by Bush in the general election.

[John]

Here are my Precdtions
i Spelled that Worng
D.C: DEAN
IOWA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
NH: DEAN
ARIZONA: CLARK
DELAWRE: DEAN
MISSOURI: DEAN
OTHERS WILL BE SWIPPED BY DEAN

[M]

Hjon, you forgoterd SouCarlin, which onis improtant.

[© tweed]

Here are my Precdtions
i Spelled that Worng
D.C: DEAN
IOWA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
NH: DEAN
ARIZONA: CLARK
DELAWRE: DEAN
MISSOURI: DEAN
OTHERS WILL BE SWIPPED BY DEAN

Precdtions Look nice buddy.  Swipped?  Maybe not.
Dean may not take Mizzo.

[jravnsbo]

dean is a solid second in MO behind Gephardt.  If he drops out I see Dean winning it.

[NHPolitico]

Make your own primary scenario.

Gephardt wins Iowa by 5-10 points.Dean 2nd. Kerry beats out edwards by 1-5 points The rest are below 10%.

Dean wins NH by 10-20 points.  Clark grabs 2nd barely. Gephardt inches ahead of kerry by 1-5 points. Lieberman leads the back of the pack with 7% The rest are down.

After Nh kerry drops out.

SC-Gephardt wins, clark barely loses to gephardt. Dean is behind clark and infront of of edwards.

After SC edwards and braun drops out.

The rest of febuary 3rd
Arizona-Dean
Delaware-Dean
Missouri-Gephardt
New Mexico-Gerphardt
North Dakoda-Lieberman
Oklahoma-Gephardt

Clark and Lieberman drop out

Gephardt wins michigan by 10-15 points
securing a lock on the nomination

Dick Bennett's NH poll shows a flow of women voters to Kerry instead of Clark. This may be a Shaheen effect.  It would help Dean fend off Clark.

Beyond Ballot Preference - January 16, 2004
The drop in ballot preference for Howard Dean has stabilized and women voters who have switched from Dean are giving John Kerry a lift at the expense of Wesley Clark.

While 71% of women likely to vote in the Democratic primary have a favorable opinion of Clark and while Dean leads Clark among men by just 1 percentage point (28% to 27%), Clark continues to trail Dean among women 28% to 19%. Women moving away from Dean are more likely to switch to Kerry. A total of 14% of men say they will vote for Kerry and 18% of women say they will vote for Kerry.

Based on Dick Gephardt's 1988 Iowa bounce, Kerry has regained enough pre-Iowa ballot strength to challenge Dean and Clark for the lead in New Hampshire should Kerry win in Iowa.

[Gustaf]

OK, here I go now.

Iowa: as media focuses on the rise of Edwards and Kerry, Gephardt drops to 3rd or 4th place, after which he drops out. He is out of money, he didn't win IA, which ought to have been a shoe-in for him, he's toast. Kerry wins and recieves a major boost, Edwards is boosted too. Those who weren't around, Clark in particular, are hurt. Clark is hurt by other things as well.

New Hampshire: Dean and Kerry battle for it, and in the end it's a virtual tie, but with Dean winning narrowly. Edwards runs in as a surprising 3rd, while Lieberman comes 4th. Clark ends up in a humiliating 5th place, and his campaign dies, even though he decides to stay around for Feb 3rd.

Feb 3rd: Edwards manages to win SC, and does well in other primaries as well. Kerry also does well, Dean underperforms, but still does reasonably well. Clark and Lieberman are done for and drops out.

The rest: Kerry, Dean and Edwards battle it out, and Edwards ends up as the nominee.