Primary scenario

[TheWildCard]

Iowa will go

Dean
Kerry
Gephardt  
Edwards
(I've changed my mind before I though Gep would be 2nd but now I doubt that)
They will all be close each within a few percentage points of each other and Gephardt will drop out

in NH

Dean will win by a larger margin here but Kerry, Clark, and Edwards will be in a foot race for second. Lieberman will drop out here or in the next state.

Dean
Kerry
Clark
Edwards
Liberman

SC

Dean
Edwards
Clark
Kerry

Dean nearly falls to Edwards and Clark and Kerry are nearly done for. Its at this time Kerry drops out.

AZ
Dean beats Clark and Edwards does not do that well.

Dean
Clark
Edwards


Dean then wins everything after this,

[John]

Iowa will go

Dean
Kerry
Gephardt  
Edwards
(I've changed my mind before I though Gep would be 2nd but now I doubt that)
They will all be close each within a few percentage points of each other and Gephardt will drop out

in NH

Dean will win by a larger margin here but Kerry, Clark, and Edwards will be in a foot race for second. Lieberman will drop out here or in the next state.

Dean
Kerry
Clark
Edwards
Liberman

SC

Dean
Edwards
Clark
Kerry

Dean nearly falls to Edwards and Clark and Kerry are nearly done for. Its at this time Kerry drops out.

AZ
Dean beats Clark and Edwards does not do that well.

Dean
Clark
Edwards


Dean then wins everything after this,

I Like what you say i will Agree with you

[John]

Iowa is close so i will make another Predction
Dean: 31%
Kerry: 30%
Edwards: 24%
Gepthart: 19%

[YRABNNRM]

Iowa is close so i will make another Predction
Dean: 31%
Kerry: 30%
Edwards: 24%
Gepthart: 19%

All together that equals 104%

[© tweed]

Iowa is close so i will make another Predction
Dean: 31%
Kerry: 30%
Edwards: 24%
Gepthart: 19%

All together that equals 104%

HAHA...
And he didn't even listt he other candidates who will get some votes.

[YRABNNRM]

Iowa is close so i will make another Predction
Dean: 31%
Kerry: 30%
Edwards: 24%
Gepthart: 19%

All together that equals 104%

HAHA...
And he didn't even listt he other candidates who will get some votes.

Watch out he'll tell God.

[NHPolitico]

Iowa is close so i will make another Predction
Dean: 31%
Kerry: 30%
Edwards: 24%
Gepthart: 19%

All together that equals 104%

HAHA...
And he didn't even listt he other candidates who will get some votes.

Watch out he'll tell God.

A messenger from God is not bound by the laws of math!  You'll be struck down where you type if you don't watch it!

[Gustaf]

Iowa is close so i will make another Predction
Dean: 31%
Kerry: 30%
Edwards: 24%
Gepthart: 19%

All together that equals 104%

HAHA...
And he didn't even listt he other candidates who will get some votes.

Watch out he'll tell God.

A messenger from God is not bound by the laws of math!  You'll be struck down where you type if you don't watch it!

Haha...we shouldn't question God just b/c we don't understand His mysterious ways, right JMF?

[© tweed]

Dean wins Iowa and NH fairly easily.  Kerry drops out of the race.

SC- Clark wins, keeping him alive.

Gephardt, edwards drop out.

Feb. 3:

Arizona-Dean
Delaware-Dean
Missouri-Clark
New Mexico-Dean
North Dakota- Clark
Oklahoma-Clark

Dean wins the nomination.

Pretty damn accurate prediction.

[Gustaf]

Dean wins Iowa and NH fairly easily.  Kerry drops out of the race.

SC- Clark wins, keeping him alive.

Gephardt, edwards drop out.

Feb. 3:

Arizona-Dean
Delaware-Dean
Missouri-Clark
New Mexico-Dean
North Dakota- Clark
Oklahoma-Clark

Dean wins the nomination.

Pretty damn accurate prediction.

Well...I guess you could say..hmmmm....you were right on Clark winning Oklahoma!

[© tweed]

Yeah, OK was the only state I got right.

Why did Gephardt drop out after Iowa?  He could have won Mizzo.

[Nym90]

Yeah, but there wasn't much point, other than if he wanted to be able to say that he won a state.

[© tweed]

Yeah, but there wasn't much point, other than if he wanted to be able to say that he won a state.

But MO is a big delegate state, he wouldn't have been done.

[zachman]

Gephardt was supposed to win Iowa, and that was his plea to the voters there.

[© tweed]

Gephardt could have also won Michigan.

[Gustaf]

Not winning Iowa was a huge rejection. I am not so sure he would've been able to stop the Kerry-momentum after losing Iowa.

[Nym90]

Yeah, Gephardt put all his energy into Iowa and finished 4th. He had lost the union vote which he had to have to win. Gephardt was simply a realist about his campaign.

[zachman]

Gephardt is not popular. He is not popular in NH and this election is not about issues! You all try to calculate that each candidate wins a certain voting track. This usually won't happen in a multi player race.

[© tweed]

If Gephardt had stayed in he would have won Michigan and Missouri.  He'd still be a player for the nomination.

[Gustaf]

If Gephardt had stayed in he would have won Michigan and Missouri.  He'd still be a player for the nomination.

I don't think so, finishing 4th in Iowa was too much. Kerry would still have won New Hampshire and been on the same roller coaster. We would've seen Gephardt fall as fast as Dean did, if not worse. He would've had trouble winning Missouri, and I very much doubt he would have won Michigan.

[Nym90]

Yeah, the union vote was already abandoning Gephardt, and would have continued to do so. Gephardt would not have done well in New Hampshire and then his union support would have left him, as it already was doing in Iowa.

[© tweed]

I don't think so, finishing 4th in Iowa was too much. Kerry would still have won New Hampshire and been on the same roller coaster. We would've seen Gephardt fall as fast as Dean did, if not worse. He would've had trouble winning Missouri, and I very much doubt he would have won Michigan.

But if he won Missouri, even if he only won it by a point or two, he would have gootten a boost and won Michigan.

[Nym90]

Maybe. Winning his home state by only a point or two would be unlikely to give him much of a boost though, especially if he lost the other 6 states on Feb. 3.

[elcorazon]

give it up miami, gephardt was going nowhere fast and wanted to preserve some dignity.  

[© tweed]

give it up miami, gephardt was going nowhere fast and wanted to preserve some dignity.  

No reason to be so angry about it.  geez.

Gephardt went out better than Dean is, that's for sure.