New Zogby poll out, bad for Bush

[Reds4]

Very bad looking poll for Bush. He certainly needs to get something turned around quickly. Here is the link
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=826
Kerry is now up 5 points in this poll. I suspect the 42-58 on the job approval is too low, but still things are definitely turning against Bush.

[California Dreamer]

I think this is like the 8th poll that has bush in the mid to low 40s for Job Approval.

Although Zogby tends a bit Dem...this is still within line of all the other polls. And all come to the same conclusion.

Bush is at the lowest level of popularity of his term.

Of the last 3 Presidents who were under 50 in May: 2 continued to drop into the 30s, wheras Ford came back to over 50...but regardless all 3 lost. So where is Bush headed?

[© Tweed the Younger]

42%?

OUCH

[agcatter]

...and yet Kerry is at the same % that he was in the last Zogby Poll.  All pools show two things - Bush losing support but Kerry not gaining.

[zachman]

...and yet Kerry is at the same % that he was in the last Zogby Poll.  All pools show two things - Bush losing support but Kerry not gaining.

Kerry is making slight gains, although Bush's losses are much larger than Kerry's gains. He polled 51 in the Gallup poll and 47 in this. Even the latter would win in this election.

[agcatter]

Election is 6 months out.  These polls are not going to remain constant.  There will be much leapfrogging mostly depending on events.

[zachman]

September is a key month. First debates, Olympics, GOP convention, and 9/11/04.

[agcatter]

Agreed

[struct310]

As of late, I have noticed a lot of anti-Bush Zogby comments on TV interviews and in writings.  Im not talking about suggestions to improve ratings, Im talking about taking stands on liberal issues.  Zogby definitely sways D.  I think a more solid prediction is to give Bush the margin of error plus a few more points.

[agcatter]

His brother is a leftist activist - I don't worry about his polling or what he says.  I prefer to follow Vorlon's upper tier polls.

Zogby has the red states tied at 45%.  let's see, that means that Kerry is running even in the Bush states that include Texas, Utah, the rest of the Mt states, and the rest of the South.  Yeah, right.  

[Smash255]

ogby & CBS did have it very close in 2000.  Both had Gore winning popular by a small margin, but Bush winning electoral

[Lunar]

Zogby is a registered Democrat but people from both sides hire him.  If his polls favor the Dems is just because he weights everything so wacky, not because of bias.

[agcatter]

However Zogby missed badly in the other Presidential elections.  Missed a number of Senate elections in 2002 as well.

[Giant Saguaro]

Tied in the Bush states? Wow. Must be weighting NH and WV might heavily...

Zogby had Bush's re-elect at 41% back in January too. He's also come out and said Kerry will win, then backed off and covered himself by saying it's Kerry's to lose. I don't know, yes, it's in general agreement with Bush's sliding approval rating, but I'm thinking Zogby might have a horse in this race.

[agcatter]

Yeah, something wrong with a poll showing Kerry running even with Bush in red states.  That blew the credibility of this poll right out the window.  No way.

[Smash255]

I dothink its a little off, but 2 of the 3 biggest red states from 2000 in population are Florida & Ohio, in the latest polls Kerry has pulled ahead a little in Florida and by a comfortable margin in OH, so that could explain why the red states are close

[HockeyDude]

When an incumbent is running for reelection, how much his approval drops i much more important than how much the opposition is gaining.  Undecided often break for the incumbent, and it's even harder for Bush that the undecideds don't even approve of him!  It is a long way out, but where does it get better for Bush?  I'd say the economy a little, but the war hasn't been getting worse and worse for months now!  Maybe GW's gonna have to whip out Osama a little early.....

[Giant Saguaro]

I dothink its a little off, but 2 of the 3 biggest red states from 2000 in population are Florida & Ohio, in the latest polls Kerry has pulled ahead a little in Florida and by a comfortable margin in OH, so that could explain why the red states are close

True, but if we're to take seriously the last poll out of Cali, recent ones from Oregon, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and even Washington - then the Kerry states should be a good deal closer too.

Really, though, even if the polls are trustworthy, I don't get the point in averaging states together. Even down to regional - Illinois could skew any number of midwestern groupings, for example, especially if weighted properly. It's strongly Democratic and the rest of them are fairly close one way or the other, so chances are it would throw off the average.

[classical liberal]

IN and KY balance out IL.

[Giant Saguaro]

IN and KY balance out IL.

KY isn't techically midwest (south) and it depends on how you want to weight IL. I'm saying Zogby has some pro Dem weighting going on and would if he did a poll like this hypothetical one.

[Umengus]

However Zogby missed badly in the other Presidential elections.  Missed a number of Senate elections in 2002 as well.

electronic vote was corrupt.