Mississippi 2003

[ElectionAtlas]

Mississippi results have been posted in the Gubernatorial section (county data and map are included!).

[Beet]

Its a sad state when you can tell whether someone will vote Rep or Dem just by looking at them. I bet Barbour won 80%+ of the white vote and Musgrave won 80%+ of the black vote. Tell me if I am right, David.

[Ryan]

A very regrettable situation. People's vote should be decided by economic and other considerations not race. Hopefully things are changing slowly- too slowly though!

Btw I would also like to know the breakdown of the vote on not just race but other factors like income, sex, religious affiliation etc. if anyone has them.

[rbt48]

No big surprise in Mississippi in terms of race and party preferences.  In all the "Deep South" states, the story is the same.  If the Republicans want to win, they need to get 70+% of the white vote.  The black vote is likely 90+% Democratic.  A liberal Democrat is almost sure to lose.  A populist or conservative Democrat is competative, because that candidate can do better among whites.  

The fact is, economics drive this situation.  Southern blacks are undeniably farther down the economic ladder than southern whites.  But additionally, ever since the Democrats seized the call for equality during the civil rights struggle in the 1950s and 1960s, the black vote has been solidly in the Democratic column.  It was just the opposite from the end of the Civil War to 1932, when the black vote was solidly Republican.  Of course, after 1876, blacks were largely disenfranchised across the South.  

I think one could argue that the civil rights battle will really be won when the day arrives that both parties can compete equally for the black vote.  That day, sadly, is probably as far off as the day when a Republican carries D.C. in a presidential election.  By the way, since it first got the vote in 1964, Washington has cast 82.83% of its vote for Democrats and 13.69% for Republicans.  The best Republican showing was Richard Nixon's 21.56% of the vote in 1972.  It has been below 10% the past three elections.  (These statistics are based upon the exceptional work of David Leip.)

[Ryan]

I came across these figures regarding the topic discussed above if anyone is interested.

Barbour captured 77 percent of the
white vote, which makes up 65 percent of the state's electorate.
Musgrove won 94 percent of the African-American vote, which represents
33 percent of the state's voters.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Urrgh... nasty.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As a Mississippian, let me put in a few cents:

Barbour (R) played the race card the whole election.  He accused Musgrove (D) of trying to change the state flag, which is absolutely not true as Musgrove put it to a vote.
Musgrove responded stupidly by not running his decent record.  He simply attacked Barbour the whole race.
Barbour and Musgrove both ran very bad campaigns, but Musgrove's was worse.
I'm glad it's all over really so I don't have to see attack adds on every channel.  They got pretty bad. . .  ("Washington lobbyist Haley Barbour is poisining our kids . . . ")

Barbour was endorsed by the "uptown Klan"(the CoCC) if I remember correctly...

[Gustaf]

A very regrettable situation. People's vote should be decided by economic and other considerations not race. Hopefully things are changing slowly- too slowly though!

Btw I would also like to know the breakdown of the vote on not just race but other factors like income, sex, religious affiliation etc. if anyone has them.

You mean exit polls right? Since you can't actually know how people voted. (And the exit polls in the UK in 1992 actually made a wrongful prediction, if I'm not mistaken, since people were ashamed to admit voting Conservative.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is Mississippi really that straight down the line?

Only when the race card is played.
Current polls show Bush neck and neck with a generic Democrat in MS.

[© tweed]

Is Mississippi really that straight down the line?

Only when the race card is played.
Current polls show Bush neck and neck with a generic Democrat in MS.

Got a link to a poll, Realpolitik?

[DarthKosh]

Is Mississippi really that straight down the line?

Only when the race card is played.
Current polls show Bush neck and neck with a generic Democrat in MS.

Back in this reality no Dem is neck and neck with Bush.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Poll was by AP:

Bush 49% certainly Democrat nominee 29% consider Democrat nominee 20%
Total Democrat 49%

www.dcpoliticalreport.com

[jravnsbo]

consider is not voting.

I would answer considering too and I am behind Bush all the way.  

You always look at everyone and then decide.  

Next, Bush won't be running against a generic Democrat but a named one and Bush leads by 10 points or more almost everywhere when you add a name and sometimes 20 points depending.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

consider is not voting.

I would answer considering too and I am behind Bush all the way.  

You always look at everyone and then decide.  

Next, Bush won't be running against a generic Democrat but a named one and Bush leads by 10 points or more almost everywhere when you add a name and sometimes 20 points depending.

Wrong

[jravnsbo]

what do you mean wrong?

Bush leads in a number of states and polls when you say Dean vs Bush latest spread was around 20 points.  

Other recent polls have show the same , Bush leads by vearying margins all over the country.

[© tweed]

what do you mean wrong?

Bush leads in a number of states and polls when you say Dean vs Bush latest spread was around 20 points.  

Other recent polls have show the same , Bush leads by vearying margins all over the country.

Not in New York!  Dean by five BABY!!!

[jravnsbo]

ok NY, but traditionally Democrat and Bush can win in and is leading in a number of the states he needs to win.

Plus I think you will find many more where Bush is leading vs trailing to Dean.

[jravnsbo]

plus only a 5 point lead for a Dem in NY would be a troubling sign for Dems, not a positive one.

[© tweed]

plus only a 5 point lead for a Dem in NY would be a troubling sign for Dems, not a positive one.

Gephardt was trailing by 16 points here in april.  So it is a good sign.

[jravnsbo]

apples and oranges you switched subjects on me.

Gephardt and Dean.

How is Gephardt doing?

[© tweed]

apples and oranges you switched subjects on me.

Gephardt and Dean.

How is Gephardt doing?

I think he is up 47-41%  in NY.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You need to learn how to read polls.
At the moment the election is a referendum on the president, so the number to look for is what % Bush is getting. Ignore "leads" etc.
If he is in the low 50's he's in trouble, under 50 he could be in serious trouble.

[jravnsbo]

I do read polls, lots of them, especially state ones and with a liberal left candidate like Dean, he has a long way to go to get to 50%.

He is now out attacking his opponents calling them Republicans, not Republican light.  Then he has threatened that his followers may not support someone else if he is not the nominee and lastly he attacked the head of the DNC for not restraining Dean's opponents from attacking him, in a primary.  Dean will someday need these people he is attacking AND then reach ot tot he middle to win.  

But he hasn't done anything close to that yet.

[jravnsbo]

So anything come of the pledge about abortion? that does sound odd.

Um, since this is the MISSISSIPPI governor's board . . .
Anyhow, the MS governor's race was pretty bad.  Both sides had horrible attack ads.

The lt. gov's race was pretty bad too.  It was two women.  Amy Tuck (R) was a former Dem who changed midway through her first term as lt. gov.  She was endorsed by some anti-abortion.   Then her Dem challenger, Barbara Blackmon, said she was against abortion and demanded that Tuck sign an affadavit that she'd never had one!  It was odd.

Anyway, all races (gov, ltgov, atygen) had horrible but somewhat entertaining and annoying attack ads the whole time and never really ran on any issue than the R or the D.

[NHPolitico]

Its a sad state when you can tell whether someone will vote Rep or Dem just by looking at them. I bet Barbour won 80%+ of the white vote and Musgrave won 80%+ of the black vote. Tell me if I am right, David.

It's the African American voter who votes more on party than ideology. They've done polling on things like vouchers and Social Security partial privatization. They do well with black voters-- until you tell them that those are "Republican" ideas.