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Author Topic: Louisiana 2003  (Read 20226 times)
rbt48
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« on: November 13, 2003, 11:02:54 pm »
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I predict Jindal will get 50.4% and Blanco 49.6% of the vote in the 15 Nov runoff.
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Ryan
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« Reply #1 on: November 14, 2003, 02:29:18 am »
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I predict Jindal will get 50.4% and Blanco 49.6% of the vote in the 15 Nov runoff.

I Agree, to sum up my prediction, I choose Jindal and a vote breakup of 51%R- 49%D as most likely.

As to furthur analysis, like most contemporary races, turnout will decide this race especially black turn out. I do not anticipate any significant inroads into the black vote for Jindal despite several high-profile endorsements from black leaders. (like Mayor Nagin of New Orleans)

What could happen however is that black turnout may be low. Blanco hasn't given them any huge reason to turn out FOR her. The only reason to turn out is to vote AGAINST Jindal. If they feel they don't have a good enough reason to fear the GOP candidate winning; that would assure Jindals victory. As the black turnout goes up Jindals chances go down as Blanco has been making inroads among voters a GOP candidate would be expected to carry and Foster did by large margins the last time. White women especially married women head this list for obvious reasons.

Its still not a done deal but I do see a slight momemntum for Jindal Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #2 on: November 15, 2003, 01:47:02 pm »
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I predict Jindal will get 50.4% and Blanco 49.6% of the vote in the 15 Nov runoff.

I Agree, to sum up my prediction, I choose Jindal and a vote breakup of 51%R- 49%D as most likely.

As to furthur analysis, like most contemporary races, turnout will decide this race especially black turn out. I do not anticipate any significant inroads into the black vote for Jindal despite several high-profile endorsements from black leaders. (like Mayor Nagin of New Orleans)

What could happen however is that black turnout may be low. Blanco hasn't given them any huge reason to turn out FOR her. The only reason to turn out is to vote AGAINST Jindal. If they feel they don't have a good enough reason to fear the GOP candidate winning; that would assure Jindals victory. As the black turnout goes up Jindals chances go down as Blanco has been making inroads among voters a GOP candidate would be expected to carry and Foster did by large margins the last time. White women especially married women head this list for obvious reasons.

Its still not a done deal but I do see a slight momemntum for Jindal Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

I don't see where black turnout will be very high.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #3 on: November 15, 2003, 02:32:48 pm »
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The most recent poll has Jindal leading 46-42 with 12% undecided.
Now were Jindal the incumbent this would mean he would probably lose(undecided usually break 75% against the incumbent), but of course Jindal is not the incumbent so I haven't got a clue which way they will vote.

But I thought I'd tell you all how to read certain polls anyway Wink
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« Reply #4 on: November 15, 2003, 05:28:03 pm »
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Final Prediction

Blanco 52.4%
Jingler 47.6%
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« Reply #5 on: November 15, 2003, 06:14:11 pm »
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Prediction

Jindal: 53%
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Recall Doyle
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« Reply #6 on: November 15, 2003, 06:14:47 pm »
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Prediction

Jindal: 53%

Blanco: 47%
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« Reply #7 on: November 15, 2003, 07:17:56 pm »
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Blanco 53%

I think Jundal is the better candidate and will accomplish more for LA, but I think Blanco will win.  There seems to hae been some movement her way in ythe last few days, and I think the 12% undecided in the last polls will probably split to her advantage, good weather today also will help increase turn out, which ussually favors Democrats
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« Reply #8 on: November 15, 2003, 09:52:20 pm »
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As of 8:48 Central Standard Time, with 1,435 of 4,143 (35%) precincts reporting, Blanco is leading with 247,778 votes (53%) to 222,980 (47%) for Jindal.  In the other statewide election where a runoff was necessary, for Insurance Commissioner, Democratic incumbant Robert Wooley is leading Republican challenger Dan Kyle 255,601 votes (57%) to 194,660 (43%).  It's not clear where those results are from, however, so it's possible that Jindal could still win.  My source for these results is http://www.sec.state.la.us:8090/cgibin/?rqstyp=elcms2&rqsdta=111503 .

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #9 on: November 15, 2003, 10:32:58 pm »
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As of 9:28 Louisiana time, with 3,465 of 4,143 precincts reporting (84%):

Governor's race:
Blanco (D) 592,310 votes (52%)
Jindal (R) 545,973 votes (48%)

Insurance Commissioner's race:
Wooley (D) 619,587 votes (57%)
Kyle (R) 465,581 votes (43%)

It looks like Blanco is the winner.  It is a pretty close race, but Jindal would have to win those remaining precincts by about 20% (if their average population is the same as the other precincts) in order to win.  Elections are often called with much less certainty than that.  The Insurance Commissioner's race is definately over, as the Republican nominee would likely have to get over 85% of the vote in the remaining precincts in order to win.  The Republicans will likely try to spin the results, talking about how a couple decades ago a Republican would have done much worse, but this must be disapointing for the party.  It will be interesting to see a map of the results.  Perhaps Jindal made major inroads in normally Democratic New Orleans, but suffered serious losses in the north as some polls predicted.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau
« Last Edit: November 15, 2003, 10:42:03 pm by Kevinstat »Logged
MSUfan
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« Reply #10 on: November 15, 2003, 11:02:32 pm »
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Fox News


Blanco Wins!!!!!!!!!! I finally got a prediction right.
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« Reply #11 on: November 15, 2003, 11:10:53 pm »
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yeah, the GOP needs to be ahead early in the count as the tabulation of counties trends Dem as the evening wears on.
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« Reply #12 on: November 15, 2003, 11:13:47 pm »
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With 93 percent of precincts counted, Blanco had 52 percent, or 680,418 votes, to Bobby Jindal's  48 percent, or 640,541.

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MSUfan
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« Reply #13 on: November 15, 2003, 11:20:20 pm »
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It looks like Blanco won. Jindel still has a slim chance of winning, but I think this is a win for the dems!!!
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Ryan
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« Reply #14 on: November 15, 2003, 11:30:39 pm »
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It looks like Blanco won. Jindel still has a slim chance of winning, but I think this is a win for the dems!!!

No chance of winning I'm afraid Sad
With 96 percent of precincts counted, Blanco had 52 percent, or 703,226 votes, to Jindal's 48 percent, or 658,806. Thats the bar in Louisiana. There are no precincts left with a strong enough republican edge to ensure a Jindal win.
K. Blanco is the next Governor. Smiley
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Clay
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« Reply #15 on: November 15, 2003, 11:35:46 pm »
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Hey, I'm new to these boards (this is my first post) but I've been lurking around for a few weeks now.

I must say, I'm pretty disappointed about Jindal losing.  What a surprise!  From everything I've read, Blanco has been trailing in the polls.  Oh well.  All in all, 2003 has been a great year for Republicans, with wins in Mississippi, Kentucky, and, of all places, California.  If 2003 is any indication of how 2004 will play out (as some suggest--I am not one of them), then it looks like Bush has a good chance at being re-elected.
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« Reply #16 on: November 15, 2003, 11:41:01 pm »
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Good, I wanted blanco to win. im sick of GOP wins
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Ryan
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« Reply #17 on: November 15, 2003, 11:46:42 pm »
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Well, that's done, congratulations to all those who called the race right. This is the first statewide race I called wrong since 2000 (even with my strong conditionals as to factors affecting the results)

Damn. I'd gladly have had a dozen wrong elsewhere and had got this right Cheesy I take it everyone knows my stake in the race. Sad

Still there are compensating factors. First as to Louisiana itself, while Blanco cannot do as good a job as Jindal would have, she is a conservative and honest, so that's not a bad start.

As to the rest, while I am not going to spin this as a "win" for the GOP by any chance, its part of an ever growing record of actions by both the leadership and base of the party to embrace qualified minorities for public office.
As to electability, we now have a record of 48% for a non-white candidate statewide in Louisiana and that is a great start.

As to Jindal himself let no-one forget he still has decades of public service left in him. Perhaps it wasn't his time yet but I think we haven't seen the last of Bobby Jindal Cheesy Wink








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« Reply #18 on: November 15, 2003, 11:48:29 pm »
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In state elections La. continues to be fool's gold for Republicans.  The bubbas broke for Blanco.  They don't do that at the presidential level, but what are you going to do.  Also, from what I've been able to tell, the Louisiana Republican Party has a lousy organization.  This is an exact rerun of the Senatorial race.
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Clay
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« Reply #19 on: November 15, 2003, 11:52:09 pm »
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As to Jindal himself let no-one forget he still has decades of public service left in him. Perhaps it wasn't his time yet but I think we haven't seen the last of Bobby Jindal Cheesy Wink










Maybe Jindal will consider a senate run next year or in 2008?
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« Reply #20 on: November 15, 2003, 11:54:33 pm »
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In this forum only 2 people predicted the race correct. LOL. My congrats to Governor-elect Blanco.  
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rbt48
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« Reply #21 on: November 15, 2003, 11:56:28 pm »
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Latest return from LA Secretary of State is:
699,051 51.9% Kathleen Babineaux Blanco  -  
648,736 48.1% "Bobby" Jindal  
with 4,032 of 4,143 precincts reporting.  98 of the missing 111 precincts are from Jefferson Parish where Jindal has 71% of the vote, so the final margin might whittle down to 51 to 49%.

The Attorney General race on the primary night (with Susie Terrell losing 54 to 46%) probably gave a good indication of the dilemma the Republicans faced this year.
« Last Edit: November 15, 2003, 11:57:55 pm by rbt48 »Logged

Demrepdan
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« Reply #22 on: November 16, 2003, 12:39:56 am »
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Final results from Louisiana Gubernatorial Election. With 100% of the precincts reporting: 730,747 or 52% for Blanco,
676,180 or 48% for Jindal.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #23 on: November 16, 2003, 06:16:21 am »
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Congratulations to Governor-Elect Blanco!

This is an excellent result for Lousiana. The state that nearly elected David Duke has elected a Woman and has given a minority candidate 48% of the vote.

Lousiana has moved forward, it seems that Jindal did better than most GOP candidates would have done with minorities and Blanco seems to have done well with the "Bubbas".

Compare this to the ethnic voting we all saw in Mississippi...

It seems that undecided voters saw Jindal as the incumbent and voted for Blanco.

Late swings can be a killer(just ask Elwin Hermason), and I'm very pleased that my prediction that it would be decided by a late swing was true Smiley
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« Reply #24 on: November 16, 2003, 06:22:35 am »
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Politics1:

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BLANCO WINS LOUISIANA GOV RACE IN UPSET. Lieutenant Governor Kathleen Blanco (D) won a come-from-behind victory Saturday in the open race Louisiana Governor against former State Health Secretary Piyush "Bobby" Jindal (R). Blanco -- who trailed Jindal by fifteen points in last month's primary and trailed in most recent polls -- won the run-off by a 52% to 48% vote. Jindal was term-limited Governor Mike Foster's (R) hand-picked successor. Blanco will become the state's first female Governor. In the run-off contest for State Insurance Commissioner, interim incumbent Robert Wooley (D) defeated former State Legislative Auditor Dan Kyle (R) by a 14-point margin. Wooley -- who was the top deputy to former Commissioner Jim Brown (D) -- moved up to the top job when Brown was sent to prison on federal corruption charges several months ago. State voter turnout was estimated at just 45% -- the lowest rate in state history for a gubernatorial contest.
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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
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