What About Minority Groups?

[© Tweed the Younger]

I predict Bush gets 15% of the black vote, 40% of the hispanic vote and near 50% of the asian vote.  His white vote will hold steady around 54%.

If he does that well he wins california.

[jacob_101]

If he does that well he wins california.

Actually my predictions are more modest than that.  Not enough to swing a democratic stronghold like California.  I think Bush only got 49% of the white vote in 2000.

[© Tweed the Younger]

You sure?  I think Bush only lost the white vote in a handful of states.

[jacob_101]

Yeah I am about 90% sure on that one.  Could be off a point or two.

[AuH2O]

Um Bush had to have had well over 50% of the white vote; he had almost 48% of the total vote and 25% of the population is non-white, so it's statistically impossible for it to be that low.

54% could be right, but even that sounds a tad low... in some states, Bush won 2/3 the white vote- and nowhere did he get wiped out.

[jacob_101]

Um Bush had to have had well over 50% of the white vote; he had almost 48% of the total vote and 25% of the population is non-white, so it's statistically impossible for it to be that low.

54% could be right, but even that sounds a tad low... in some states, Bush won 2/3 the white vote- and nowhere did he get wiped out.

AuH20,

We were talking about the white vote in CA being 49%, not the national white vote...

[AuH2O]

oh oh.

Yeah that's possible. Fishy, but possible.

Problem is, 'hispanic' is not a race, so a lot of people of Mexican descent are counted as white. I would imagine Bush got more than 49% of the non-hispanic white vote.

[jacob_101]

Maybe he did get more than 49% among just the white population, but I doubt it.  And there about 16 or 17 states where Bush failed to get a majority of the "white" vote.  The white vote is not as strong as you think, except in the south and a few mountain states.