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| | |-+  What About Minority Groups?
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Author Topic: What About Minority Groups?  (Read 5700 times)
tweed
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« Reply #50 on: July 16, 2004, 02:07:49 pm »
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I predict Bush gets 15% of the black vote, 40% of the hispanic vote and near 50% of the asian vote.  His white vote will hold steady around 54%.

If he does that well he wins california.
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« Reply #51 on: July 16, 2004, 02:16:04 pm »
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If he does that well he wins california.
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Actually my predictions are more modest than that.  Not enough to swing a democratic stronghold like California.  I think Bush only got 49% of the white vote in 2000.
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tweed
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« Reply #52 on: July 16, 2004, 02:21:41 pm »
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You sure?  I think Bush only lost the white vote in a handful of states.
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jacob_101
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« Reply #53 on: July 16, 2004, 03:03:16 pm »
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Yeah I am about 90% sure on that one.  Could be off a point or two.
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AuH2O
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« Reply #54 on: July 16, 2004, 04:36:49 pm »
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Um Bush had to have had well over 50% of the white vote; he had almost 48% of the total vote and 25% of the population is non-white, so it's statistically impossible for it to be that low.

54% could be right, but even that sounds a tad low... in some states, Bush won 2/3 the white vote- and nowhere did he get wiped out.
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jacob_101
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« Reply #55 on: July 16, 2004, 04:51:45 pm »
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Um Bush had to have had well over 50% of the white vote; he had almost 48% of the total vote and 25% of the population is non-white, so it's statistically impossible for it to be that low.

54% could be right, but even that sounds a tad low... in some states, Bush won 2/3 the white vote- and nowhere did he get wiped out.


AuH20,

We were talking about the white vote in CA being 49%, not the national white vote...
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AuH2O
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« Reply #56 on: July 16, 2004, 06:35:53 pm »
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oh oh.

Yeah that's possible. Fishy, but possible.

Problem is, 'hispanic' is not a race, so a lot of people of Mexican descent are counted as white. I would imagine Bush got more than 49% of the non-hispanic white vote.
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jacob_101
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« Reply #57 on: July 20, 2004, 12:05:35 pm »
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Maybe he did get more than 49% among just the white population, but I doubt it.  And there about 16 or 17 states where Bush failed to get a majority of the "white" vote.  The white vote is not as strong as you think, except in the south and a few mountain states.
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