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| | |-+  What About Minority Groups?
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Author Topic: What About Minority Groups?  (Read 5952 times)
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #50 on: July 16, 2004, 02:07:49 pm »
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I predict Bush gets 15% of the black vote, 40% of the hispanic vote and near 50% of the asian vote.  His white vote will hold steady around 54%.

If he does that well he wins california.
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“They cheated us again and again, made decisions behind our back, presenting us with completed facts. That’s the way it was with the expansion of NATO in the East, with the deployment of military infrastructure at our borders. They always told us the same thing: 'Well, this doesn't concern you.'" -Vladimir Putin
jacob_101
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« Reply #51 on: July 16, 2004, 02:16:04 pm »
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If he does that well he wins california.
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Actually my predictions are more modest than that.  Not enough to swing a democratic stronghold like California.  I think Bush only got 49% of the white vote in 2000.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #52 on: July 16, 2004, 02:21:41 pm »
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You sure?  I think Bush only lost the white vote in a handful of states.
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“They cheated us again and again, made decisions behind our back, presenting us with completed facts. That’s the way it was with the expansion of NATO in the East, with the deployment of military infrastructure at our borders. They always told us the same thing: 'Well, this doesn't concern you.'" -Vladimir Putin
jacob_101
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« Reply #53 on: July 16, 2004, 03:03:16 pm »
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Yeah I am about 90% sure on that one.  Could be off a point or two.
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AuH2O
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« Reply #54 on: July 16, 2004, 04:36:49 pm »
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Um Bush had to have had well over 50% of the white vote; he had almost 48% of the total vote and 25% of the population is non-white, so it's statistically impossible for it to be that low.

54% could be right, but even that sounds a tad low... in some states, Bush won 2/3 the white vote- and nowhere did he get wiped out.
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jacob_101
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« Reply #55 on: July 16, 2004, 04:51:45 pm »
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Um Bush had to have had well over 50% of the white vote; he had almost 48% of the total vote and 25% of the population is non-white, so it's statistically impossible for it to be that low.

54% could be right, but even that sounds a tad low... in some states, Bush won 2/3 the white vote- and nowhere did he get wiped out.


AuH20,

We were talking about the white vote in CA being 49%, not the national white vote...
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AuH2O
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« Reply #56 on: July 16, 2004, 06:35:53 pm »
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oh oh.

Yeah that's possible. Fishy, but possible.

Problem is, 'hispanic' is not a race, so a lot of people of Mexican descent are counted as white. I would imagine Bush got more than 49% of the non-hispanic white vote.
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« Reply #57 on: July 20, 2004, 12:05:35 pm »
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Maybe he did get more than 49% among just the white population, but I doubt it.  And there about 16 or 17 states where Bush failed to get a majority of the "white" vote.  The white vote is not as strong as you think, except in the south and a few mountain states.
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