Biggest relative partisan shift in a county ever between two elections
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  Biggest relative partisan shift in a county ever between two elections
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Author Topic: Biggest relative partisan shift in a county ever between two elections  (Read 4305 times)
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
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« on: August 14, 2004, 04:17:02 PM »

by relative I mean compared to the national average.

Could this be it?

Miller County, GA:

1960:
Kennedy   94.7%
Nixon 5.3%

Kennedy by 89.4. Nationwide was Kennedy was 0.17. 89.23 points more Democratic than the national average

1964:
Johnson   14.2%
Goldwater 85.8%

Goldwater by 71.6. Nationwide was Johnson by 22.58. 94.18 more Republican than the national average.

That's a shift of 183.41 points and since that's out of 200 (since you have 100 on each side), it means there was a 91.705% shift!
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Dr. Cynic
Lawrence Watson
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« Reply #1 on: August 14, 2004, 06:45:16 PM »

Travis County Texas:

1968:  HUMPHREY - 91.5 %
           Nixon - 8.4 %
           Wallace - 1.1%

1972: NIXON - 98%
          McGovern - 2%

Hopefully my numbers aren't wrong. I'll go back and check another source to make sure the numbers are correct.
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nclib
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« Reply #2 on: August 14, 2004, 07:47:41 PM »

Does anyone have a list of the biggest county swings from 1996 to 2000?
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Dr. Cynic
Lawrence Watson
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« Reply #3 on: August 14, 2004, 10:27:08 PM »

I could probably find out for you, nclib.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #4 on: August 19, 2004, 06:26:01 AM »

Does anyone have a list of the biggest county swings from 1996 to 2000?
I've started to make one...
Top 5 Dem-to-Rep shifts in New England, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Ohio:
Piscataquis, ME 28,9
Meigs, OH 28,1
Vinton, OH 27,8
Essex, VT 27,4
Forest, PA 26,0
Top 5 Rep-to-Dem shifts, same area:
Essex, NJ 2,3
Montgomery, PA 2,0
Washington, PA 2,0
Delaware, PA 1,8
Rensselaer, NY 1,7
To get to relative shifts as defined above subtract 8,0 from Republican shifts, add 8,0 to Democratic shifts.
(Note: I'm not taking Perot, Nader etc results into account. The Rep shifts are larger than the Dem shifts simply because these counties are, on average, smaller.)
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Gabu
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« Reply #5 on: August 19, 2004, 06:34:33 AM »

For anyone confused about the above listing, Europe uses a comma rather than a period to signify the decimal point in a number.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #6 on: August 19, 2004, 07:18:15 AM »

For anyone confused about the above listing, Europe uses a comma rather than a period to signify the decimal point in a number.
Oh, yeah, sorry. Sometimes I think of that, sometimes I don't. And a point where you use a comma.
Update: including Indiana, Illinois, Michigan and Wisconsin as well as the states mentioned above.
Dem-to-Rep
Ontonagon MI 36,2
Dubois IN 30,3
Jefferson IL 29,8
White IL 29,7
Piscataquis ME 28,9

Rep-to-Dem
Dane WI 2,5
Essex NJ 2,3
Menominee WI 2,3 (hey! a Dem swing in a tiny county!)
Montgomery PA 2,0
Washington PA 2,0
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #7 on: August 19, 2004, 08:12:39 AM »

Update, incl. MN, IA, MO
top 5 dem-to-rep:
Mercer MO 40.4
Reynolds MO 39.4
Ontonagon MI 36.2
Shannon MO 35.9
Scotland MO 35.3
MOMOMO...
top 5 rep-to-dem
no change
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #8 on: August 19, 2004, 09:17:40 AM »

Including the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Kansas
Dem-to-Rep
Mercer MO 40.4
Reynolds MO 39.4
Billings ND 37.1
Ontonagon MI 36.2
Shannon MO 35.9

Rep-to-Dem
this has some funny results:
Russell KS 17.8 Dole's home town. Still solidly Rep.
Sioux SD 16.7 Standing Rock IR. Turnout increased by 50% but was still low.
Wyandotte KS 3.3
Dane WI 2.5
Menominee WI (another IR) / Essex NJ 2.3 each
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #9 on: August 19, 2004, 09:55:49 AM »

last update for today, incl. DE, MD, DC, VA, WV
dem-to-rep
Tyler WV 60,9 !!! Perot got over 20% here in '96 btw
Webster WV 40,8
Mercer MO 40,4
Reynolds MO 39,4
Billings ND 37,1

rep-to-dem
Russell KS 17,8
Sioux SD 16,7
Prince George's MD 9,9 (and that's a mighty big county)
Petersburg VA 6,4 a city
Montgomery MD 4,8 (another one)
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2004, 07:12:19 AM »
« Edited: August 20, 2004, 07:58:01 AM by Lewis Trondheim »

Including the South..
dem-to-rep
Tyler WV 60,9 (still trying to figure out just how a county can go from 52% Clinton, 26% Dole, 20% Perot to 65% Bush, 30% Dole...)
King TX 49,4
Owsley KY 45,9
La Salle LA 45,9
Cameron LA 45.5

rep-to-dem
Russell KS 17.8
Sioux SD 16.7
Prince George's MD 9.9
Petersburg VA 6.4
DeKalb GA 6.1
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #11 on: August 20, 2004, 08:45:31 AM »

And the final national result.

Top 5 Dem-to-Rep swings in 2000:
1. Tyler County, West Virginia 60.9 percentage points (ie, 52.9 relative to the nation)
2. King County, Texas 49.4
3. Mineral County, Montana 49.2
4. Clearwater County, Idaho 48.8
5. Lewis County, Idaho 46.6

Top 5 Rep-to-Dem swings in 2000
1. Russell County, Kansas 17.8 percentage points (ie, 25.8 relative to the nation)
2. Sioux County, North Dakota 16.7
3. Prince George's County, Maryland 9.9
4. Petersburg City, Virginia 6.4
5. Marin County, California 6.2
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nclib
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« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2004, 09:11:17 PM »

Nice list, Lewis.

Looks like the biggest Republican gains were of course in rural areas. I would have expected urban areas to lead the Democratic gain column, though it was actually, respectively, Bob Dole's hometown and an Indian Reservation.

Regarding Prince George's County (MD), do you think its shift came from migration or changes in voting patterns?
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King
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« Reply #13 on: August 22, 2004, 12:22:36 AM »

Lamar, TX

Carter 53%
Reagan 45%

Mondale 37%
Reagan 62%
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #14 on: August 24, 2004, 04:14:15 AM »
« Edited: August 24, 2004, 04:14:57 AM by Lewis Trondheim »

Nice list, Lewis.

Looks like the biggest Republican gains were of course in rural areas. I would have expected urban areas to lead the Democratic gain column, though it was actually, respectively, Bob Dole's hometown and an Indian Reservation.

Regarding Prince George's County (MD), do you think its shift came from migration or changes in voting patterns?
PG's is about the most "non-white middle class" county in the US - alongside DeKalb GA, which came at No.6. That's a demographic Bush did very badly in.
I think it also became Blacker during the nineties.

Interestingly, the three cos in the Rep list in ID and MT are contiguous - though there's no road across that stretch of the Bitterroot range.

Al, if you read this, could you please comment on Tyler Co, WV?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #15 on: August 24, 2004, 07:33:48 AM »

Tyler is a Traditionally Republican county in the "Ohio Lands"; Bush's 65-30 win isn't very suprising as Tyler has voted GOP every election since the Civil War except for 1912, when Wilson won it by 2%, and 1996 when Clinton won it by 26% (he actually won a majority of the vote in Tyler)... and he only lost it by 0.14% in 1992.
Exactly why Clinton did so well in a county that FDR and LBJ lost in I'm not sure... but the massive swing in 2000 was normal political conditions in Tyler re-asserting themselves.
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