Tons of new Rasmussen polls

[struct310]

Maryland: Kerry 54% Bush 41%

Michigan: Kerry 50% Bush 45%

New Jersey: Kerry 51% Bush 43%

New York: Kerry 56% Bush 37%

North Carolina: Bush 53% Kerry 43%

Oklahoma: Bush 59% Kerry 36%

Pennsylvania: Kerry 49% Bush 45%

South Carolina: Bush 52% Kerry 43%

Texas: Bush 57% Kerry 38%

Virginia: Bush 50% Kerry 45%

Washington: Kerry 49% Bush 42%

Wisconsin: Bush 48% Kerry 45%

[??????????]

Maryland: Kerry 54% Bush 41%

Michigan: Kerry 50% Bush 45%

New Jersey: Kerry 51% Bush 43%

New York: Kerry 56% Bush 37%

North Carolina: Bush 53% Kerry 43%

Oklahoma: Bush 59% Kerry 36%

Pennsylvania: Kerry 49% Bush 45%

South Carolina: Bush 52% Kerry 43%

Texas: Bush 57% Kerry 38%

Virginia: Bush 50% Kerry 45%

Washington: Kerry 49% Bush 42%

Wisconsin: Bush 48% Kerry 45%

This seems reasonable. Sad to see Maryland has lost its collective mind though.

[Reds4]

These polls seem fairly good for Bush. NC is going more his way, VA now 5, WI he takes a small lead. Michigan shouldn't be contested much at all, Kerry wins their easily. But these are robo polls, so who knows how close to the truth they really are.

[A18]

I thought Rasmussen state polls sucked? But yeah, it's good to see any poll with Bush up in Wisconsin.

[ATFFL]

I thought Rasmussen state polls sucked? But yeah, it's good to see any poll with Bush up in Wisconsin.

They did and may still.  It is possible he is beginning to figure out a good way to take his raw data from his national polls and get good numbers out of it.

He may also have figured out a way to weight it so that it comes close to the conventional wisdom so it looks good.

The latter is more likely, but the former would be good for the industry.

[Giant Saguaro]

Looks pretty good to me; I just hope the WI poll is right! Haven't seen any WV polls in a while, though. Instead, they'd rather poll OK and NJ, for instance, but I guess anything could happen. Maybe see if Bush can win by a bigger margin in OK than TX.

[The Vorlon]

Michigan: Kerry 50% Bush 45%

=>Pretty close

New Jersey: Kerry 51% Bush 43%

=>Pretty close

New York: Kerry 56% Bush 37%

=>Whatever

North Carolina: Bush 53% Kerry 43%

=> I expect NC to drift back to Bush over time, but it's not double digits quite yet.

Oklahoma: Bush 59% Kerry 36%

=> Whatever

Pennsylvania: Kerry 49% Bush 45%

=> Pretty close

South Carolina: Bush 52% Kerry 43%

=> Tad low, not that it matters

Texas: Bush 57% Kerry 38%

=> whatever

Virginia: Bush 50% Kerry 45%

=> I'd say 7-8, but this is a month long bot poll and most gains for Bush here came last 2 weeks

Washington: Kerry 49% Bush 42%

=> Pretty close

Wisconsin: Bush 48% Kerry 45%

=> I may be the only one, but I do have Bush barely up in this state.

The last 3 polls have all had Bush up

=>  LA Times (useless poll I admin) Bush +1 / +4
=    Moore Information (Bush +1 from a GOP firm)
=>  Robo-Bot Pol (Bush +3)

Three in a row, admittedly from a less than amazingly good crop of pollsters.

We will see

Oooops.... almost forgot.....

I don't trust these bot polls

[Lunar]

This is the best Rasmussen set of polls I've seen so far though in terms of where things "ought" to be.  Wisconsin is the only one that seems to be noticeably off, but the actual is likely within the margin of error.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Michigan: Kerry 50% Bush 45%

=>Pretty close

New Jersey: Kerry 51% Bush 43%

=>Pretty close

New York: Kerry 56% Bush 37%

=>Whatever

North Carolina: Bush 53% Kerry 43%

=> I expect NC to drift back to Bush over time, but it's not double digits quite yet.

Oklahoma: Bush 59% Kerry 36%

=> Whatever

Pennsylvania: Kerry 49% Bush 45%

=> Pretty close

South Carolina: Bush 52% Kerry 43%

=> Tad low, not that it matters

Texas: Bush 57% Kerry 38%

=> whatever

Virginia: Bush 50% Kerry 45%

=> I'd say 7-8, but this is a month long bot poll and most gains for Bush here came last 2 weeks

Washington: Kerry 49% Bush 42%

=> Pretty close

Wisconsin: Bush 48% Kerry 45%

=> I may be the only one, but I do have Bush barely up in this state.

The last 3 polls have all had Bush up

=>  LA Times (useless poll I admin) Bush +1 / +4
=    Moore Information (Bush +1 from a GOP firm)
=>  Robo-Bot Pol (Bush +3)

Three in a row, admittedly from a less than amazingly good crop of pollsters.

We will see

Oooops.... almost forgot.....

I don't trust these bot polls

Maryland looks about right

Michigan looks about right

North Carolina looks about right

Oklahoma looks about right

Pennsylvania looks about right

Texas

Looks about right.

Washington

Looks about right.

New York

Looks a little Bush friendly.

Virginia

Looks a little Kerry friendly.

South Carolina

Way too Kerry friendly.

Wisconsin

Plausible (I tend to agree about Bush being slightly ahead).

New Jersey

Will the Ds in New Jersey keep up self-destruction?  The biggest real move.

[The Vorlon]

Will the Ds in New Jersey keep up self-destruction?  The biggest real move.

The "village idiots convention" the NJ Dems are running is interesting to watch, in the morbid kind of way people stop to look at a train wreck.

I have a hard time thinking NJ could actually get close, but I also had a hard time think any party could blow up like the NJ Dems.

I have my eyes and ears open regarding NJ.

[CARLHAYDEN]

The Republicans in Illinois have also been in a self-destruct mode for the last few years.

I wonder if there isn't some kind of lemming complex which periodically afflicts state parties.

[Shira]

Sad to see Maryland has lost its collective mind though.

Take into account that the avarage education level of people in MD is far  above the level in TX, ID or AL.

[zorkpolitics]

I assume all these polls are month long polls?
If so, they probably oversatate Kerry strength by about 2%

I notice Rasmussen is now doubling up his numbers for the daily tracking poll from 500/day to 1000/day.  I wonder if he will then release these state polls twice a month?

For what it is worth, Bush is up 3% today in the tracking poll, his biggest margin since June 12.  But its mostly a loss from Kerry, more than a movement towards Bush

[??????????]

Sad to see Maryland has lost its collective mind though.

Take into account that the avarage education level of people in MD is far  above the level in TX, ID or AL.

Give it a rest already you troll.

[A18]

'Educated' in this country means 'stupid enough to vote Democrat.' Thank the public schools.

[Reds4]

Does anyone else find it funny that in Shira's post where she tells us how much more intelligent Democratic voters are than Republican voters, she actually spells average "avarage" ? hmmm..

[A18]

Actually, if you look at her profile, it's she.

[Light Touch]

Sad to see Maryland has lost its collective mind though.

Take into account that the avarage education level of people in MD is far  above the level in TX, ID or AL.

Never overestimate the importance of education.  You can buy a doctorate these days...ask the Libertarian VP candidate ;-)

[The Vorlon]

Sad to see Maryland has lost its collective mind though.

Take into account that the avarage education level of people in MD is far  above the level in TX, ID or AL.

Never overestimate the importance of education.  You can buy a doctorate these days...ask the Libertarian VP candidate ;-)

"I can't give you a brain.....
But I can give you a degree'[/i][/size]

The Wizard of Oz

~~~The Vorlon B'Fa, B'Sc, M'Sc~~~