Predict the Polls II

[afleitch]

I was scrolling through my old posts this morning and I stumbled on one from late May in which I had predicted the opinion polls up until November. I had done well actually, giving Kerry a 'bounce' from mid-july through to late August. The 'early September' prediction had both candidates tied at 47% and for fun, my late September prediction had Kerry 49% Bush 47%. So I thought i'd do it again!

Week ending.    Kerry  Bush  Others/Undecided
5 Sep                  44      48      8
12 Sep                45      49      6
19 Sep                46      47      7
26 Sep                48      48      4
3 Oct                   48      46      6
10 Oct                 49      47      4
17 Oct                 50      48      2
25 Oct                 49      49      2
31 Oct                 47      46      7

[© tweed]

Week ending.    Kerry  Bush  Others/Undecided
5 Sep                  45      50      5
12 Sep                45      50      5
19 Sep                46      49      5
26 Sep                47      47      7
3 Oct                   48      46      7
10 Oct                 43      53      4
17 Oct                 44      52      4
25 Oct                 46      50      4
31 Oct                 47      50      3

[CARLHAYDEN]

All depends on what polls you are predicting.

Some are way out there.

[Shira]

I was scrolling through my old posts this morning and I stumbled on one from late May in which I had predicted the opinion polls up until November. I had done well actually, giving Kerry a 'bounce' from mid-july through to late August. The 'early September' prediction had both candidates tied at 47% and for fun, my late September prediction had Kerry 49% Bush 47%. So I thought i'd do it again!

Week ending.    Kerry  Bush  Others/Undecided
5 Sep                  44      48      8
12 Sep                45      49      6
19 Sep                46      47      7
26 Sep                48      48      4
3 Oct                   48      46      6
10 Oct                 49      47      4
17 Oct                 50      48      2
25 Oct                 49      49      2
31 Oct                 47      46      7

Why the number of Others is growing in the end of October?

[Shira]

Week ending.    Kerry  Bush  Others/Undecided
5 Sep                  45      50      5
12 Sep                45      50      5
19 Sep                46      49      5
26 Sep                47      47      7
3 Oct                   48      46      7
10 Oct                 43      53      4
17 Oct                 44      52      4
25 Oct                 46      50      4
31 Oct                 47      50      3

The sharp transition from 10/3 to 10/10 does not make sense

[© tweed]

Week ending.    Kerry  Bush  Others/Undecided
5 Sep                  45      50      5
12 Sep                45      50      5
19 Sep                46      49      5
26 Sep                47      47      7
3 Oct                   48      46      7
10 Oct                 43      53      4
17 Oct                 44      52      4
25 Oct                 46      50      4
31 Oct                 47      50      3

The sharp transition from 10/3 to 10/10 does not make sense

I am predicting Osama bin Laden is caught that week.

[A18]

Maybe if that happens, the Democrats will quit mocking Bush for praying.

Either that, or some conspiracy theory will pop up. Probably the latter.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

On Nov.2, the polls will show the race within 1% on either side or tied.  7% will be undecided, representing about 8 mllion votes.  Kerry gets 5 million of them, giving him the win.  It's my opinion that if you still can't decide whether to vote for Bush or not....you probably wont.  

[Horus]

Week Ending. Kerry. Bush. Undecided/Other.
5 Sep 46 - 49 - 5
12 Sep 45 - 51 - 4
19 Sep 47 - 49 - 4
26 Sep 48 - 48 - 4
3 Oct 50 - 46 - 4
10 Oct 49 - 47 - 3
17 Oct 48 - 47 - 5
25 Oct 50 - 47 - 3
31 Oct 48 - 47 - 5

[freedomburns]

Week ending.    Kerry  Bush  Others/Undecided
5 Sep                  44      48      8
12 Sep                45      49      6
19 Sep                44      48      8
26 Sep                46      47      7
3 Oct                   46      46      8
10 Oct                 47      47      6
17 Oct                 46      44      6
25 Oct                 47      45      6
31 Oct                 48      47      5

[nini2287]

Week Ending       Kerry      Bush     Other/Undecided
9/5                        45           48                7
9/12                      45           49                6
9/19                      46           48                6
9/26                      47           47                6
10/3                      49           46                5
10/10                    50           46                4
10/17                    49           46                5
10/24                    50           47                3
10/31                    49           48                3  

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Week ending.    Kerry  Bush  Others/Undecided
5 Sep                  44      48      8
12 Sep                45      49      6
19 Sep                46      47      7
26 Sep                48      48      4
3 Oct                   48      46      6
10 Oct                 49      47      4
17 Oct                 50      48      2
25 Oct                 49      49      2
31 Oct                 47      46      7

Week ending      Kerry  Bush  Others/Undecided
9/5                      44      49       7  (convention bounce)
9/12                    43      50       7  (9/11 bounce)
9/19                    43      52       5  (more 9/11 bounce)
9/26                    45      52       3  (Naderistas react by switching to Kerry)
(holds steady until election day)

[The Duke]

Week                Kerry  Bush  Undecided
5 Sep                  44      53      3
12 Sep                45      52      3
19 Sep                45      51      4
26 Sep                46      51      3
3 Oct                   44      52      4
10 Oct                 42      54      4
17 Oct                 44      52      4
25 Oct                 45      51      4
31 Oct                 46      52      2

Bush will not fall below 50% in a Gallup poll.

[A18]

My bold predictions, filled with Bush pride:

Week                Kerry  Bush  Undecided
5 Sep                  44      53      3
12 Sep                41      57      2
19 Sep                42      54      4
26 Sep                41      56      3
3 Oct                   41      55      4
10 Oct                 42      56      2
17 Oct                 38      58      4
25 Oct                 41      55      4
31 Oct                 40      57      3

[AuH2O]

I like Ford's numbers pretty well. Philip has the movement happening too quickly, too big a final margin.

[A18]

I stand by my bold projections.

I'm also predicting a net gain in both chambers of Congress for the GOP.

[AuH2O]

Hey I called GOP gains the House + Senate, Bush 350+ electoral votes the day Kerry locked up the Dem nomination.

I just think a near 20 pt victory will be tough, because the war in Iraq is somewhat divisive.

[Reignman]

Week ending.    Kerry  Bush  Others/Undecided
5 Sep                  44      48      8
12 Sep                45      50      5
19 Sep                45      48      7
26 Sep                46      47      7
3 Oct                  47      47      6
10 Oct                48      46      6
17 Oct                48      47      5
25 Oct                49      47      4
31 Oct                49      48      3