What are Edwards chances on March 2?

[Gustaf]

Edwards and Dean have support in Maryland, and Edwards will have a strong finish here, but I still believe Kerry will end up kerrying the state -- probably by around 5%, give or take.

I don't think this will be decided on sounthern tuesday.  Pennsylvania may have a say in this.

You wish...

Yes I do.

I am not gonna help you build another pyramid, DK.

[DarthKosh]

Edwards and Dean have support in Maryland, and Edwards will have a strong finish here, but I still believe Kerry will end up kerrying the state -- probably by around 5%, give or take.

I don't think this will be decided on sounthern tuesday.  Pennsylvania may have a say in this.

You wish...

Yes I do.

I am not gonna help you build another pyramid, DK.

Ok

[© tweed]

Edwards and Dean have support in Maryland, and Edwards will have a strong finish here, but I still believe Kerry will end up kerrying the state -- probably by around 5%, give or take.

I don't think this will be decided on sounthern tuesday.  Pennsylvania may have a say in this.

You wish...

Yes I do.

I am not gonna help you build another pyramid, DK.

Ok

Want me to help?

[Gustaf]

Edwards and Dean have support in Maryland, and Edwards will have a strong finish here, but I still believe Kerry will end up kerrying the state -- probably by around 5%, give or take.

I don't think this will be decided on sounthern tuesday.  Pennsylvania may have a say in this.

You wish...

Yes I do.

I am not gonna help you build another pyramid, DK.

Ok

Want me to help?

Traitor!

[© tweed]

Back tot he Edwards in 2004 topic...

I saw on Inside Politics today that 7 of the ten primaries on super Tuesday allow independents to vote.  this is good for Edwards.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

As one who believes that Edwards (more moderate) has a slightly easier road to the White House than Kerry (more liberal) in a national election against President Bush, I also recognize that Edwards needs to win a few big ones on on March 2 in order to meaninfully battle Kerry in the South on March 9.

Please share your thought!

Thanks,
Hoops    

Repeat 10 times: "Perception is reality."

Nowhere is this more true than in a Presidential primary.  Especially this year, in which so many people desperately want a strong candidate to beat Bush.  In 2003, Dean won the fundraising race, got the Big Endorsement, and everyone flocked around him.  In Iowa, Kerry got a sudden spike in the polls, won the caucus, and everyone forgot about Dean and flocked around Kerry.  Kerry rode that "perception" to wins in 13 more states.  All it takes is a little bit of momentum towards Edwards - which he got in WI - and suddenly, everyone's starting to second-guess Kerry.  The "perception" now is that Edwards is gaining.  It's enough to change people's minds.  After all, in WI, Edwards did really well among voters who made up their minds in the last days.

I think that Edwards only needs to win one state outside of GA on super tuesday, and this is a race again.  People will go into southern tuesday thinking Edwards has got a shot, leading to even more momentum.

Keep in mind that if Dean stays in the race, and keeps his delegates, Edwards doesn't have to beat Kerry - just get enough delegates to keep Kerry from getting a majority.  Then it comes down to the convention, and anything can happen :-).

[elcorazon]

Dean already dropped out.

[JohnFKennedy]

There is still hope my friends!!!! Despite everybody I know saying that it is all Kerry (many of them don't know too much about American politics though)

On the news just now, they said Dean is pulling out of the race!!!!

[JohnFKennedy]

Be careful Kerry

"Objects in your mirror may be closer than they appear" - John Edwards speaking today to supporters

[Nym90]

Kerry can't debate to save his life? He put in a great performance against Bill Weld in the debates in 1996, by all accounts.

We'll have to see how much of a bounce Edwards gets in the polls out of Wisconsin, but the bottom line is he still lost. Yes, he beat expectations, but that's not enough.

Kerry is well ahead in the latest polls in every Super Tuesday state, even Georgia. So predictions of Edwards winning a bunch of states are assuming that he gets a tremendous bounce out of finishing 2nd in Wisconsin, or that he is really able to turn the tide in the next couple weeks. He is especially far behind in the polls in the biggest states with the most delegates, New York and California.

Anything can happen, and it will be interesting to see what the polls look like in the next couple weeks, but I just don't see Edwards winning anything on Super Tuesday except maybe Georgia. Even if he did win a couple other states, he would still have lost most of the states that day, including the big ones, and it would not be perceived as a strong showing by Edwards. The expectations game can only take you so far.

[JohnFKennedy]

Without Hope, there is nothing!!!!!

[sgpine]

I think Vermont could be a very good state for Edwards...its an open primary, majority white, and that means Edwards strongest current demographic is most of the vote.

In Minnesota, Connecticut, and Maryland Edwards also has a shot...getting one would be a large boost, 2 would be huge.

I don't think Ohio is out of the question either.

New York and Massachusetts I think will be Kerry's biggest wins, if he doesn't win them resoundingly then his momemtum could be in danger of completely collapsing.

Georgia Edwards needs to win.

California is very likely a Kerry state, but Edwards must push it very hard...he can't afford to lose big.

I'm personally interested in Idaho, Utah, and Hawaii. I think if any of these state were open primaries Edwards would be the favorite. They aren't, but he could still win one, in my opinion. If he does win one (or more), then the momentum could actually mean that perhaps for the first time ever these states have mattered in a presidential election

[GOPman]

Kerry will sweep most of the states. Now that Dean is out, the core libs will add to Kerry's votes. Kerry's voters are liberals anyway, but Dean has the hardcore. Edwards will do better with Clark out, but Kerry will exceed and take the majority of the contests. If Edwards momentum and appeal were as great as the press and media hype it up, he would have done better in TN and VA. He didn't, and he will remain the number 2 guy. I don't know about VP though, he may get it, although a Northeastern Liberal from Mass. will not do well against any GOP incumbent President. It goes to show how much of a lack of appeal the dems have to the majority of voters. No wonder the dems can't do much better than winning in the urban-dense areas of the country.

[California Dreamer]

If you factor out the 40% of the Wisonsin Voters who were Independent or Republican then Kerry blew Edwards out of the water.

...and all the Super Tuesday states are democrat only.

I think Kerry will get 60%+ in every state.

...if he does, then the superdelegates may start jumping in and Kerry may have enough delegates before 'southern tuesday' making Edwards wins on that day irrelevent

[© tweed]

...and all the Super Tuesday states are democrat only.

WRONG!  7 of the ten allow independents to vote, and the ones that don't are in New England.

That tremendously halps Edwards.