Wjat Gore states do you think could be trouble for Edwards/Kerry
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  Wjat Gore states do you think could be trouble for Edwards/Kerry
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Author Topic: Wjat Gore states do you think could be trouble for Edwards/Kerry  (Read 4491 times)
Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« on: February 18, 2004, 07:15:18 PM »

I was pondering this today.  Although I think nearly all of them are solid blue this November, which do you think could be in trouble.  

First, here are the ones I think the Dems are going to win no matter who runs.  

1 Vermont
2 Massachusetts
3 Connecticut
4 Rhode Island
5 New York
6 New Jersey
7 Maryland
8 Delaware
9 Washington DC
10 Illinois
11 Minnesota
12 California
13 Washington
14 Hawaii

for a total of 189 I feel guarenteed Dem votes.

Now, with the different canidates.

If Kerry I think you can put Maine and Michgan back up, for a total of 210 almost guarenteed for Kerry.  That's Kerry's strength, the only 2000 Gore states I see being any trouble for him are Pennsylavnia, Wisconsin, Iowa, Oregon, and New Mexico.  

If its Edwards, it can be different.  I don't see anything really guaranteed for him up except those first 14.  As a southerner, maybe Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Maine, Oregon, and New Mexico will be tough.  But he looks much stronger than Kerry in the general.  

What do you think?  If Edwards was the nominee, will he have trouble in the Northeast and Upper Midwest, being from the South?  Maybe.  I think Kerry wins those easily.  

I feel Edwards strength will be picking up Red states.  Ohio, West Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona...all seem more likely to go Edwards in an Edwards/Bush race.  
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1 on: February 18, 2004, 07:37:08 PM »

New Mexico is the toughest, that's probably solid Bush.
Pennsylvania Might be hard but we'll hang on.
Midwest is the battleground: MI, WI, MN, IA.
Oregon is tough.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #2 on: February 18, 2004, 07:42:49 PM »

New Mexico is the toughest, that's probably solid Bush.
Pennsylvania Might be hard but we'll hang on.
Midwest is the battleground: MI, WI, MN, IA.
Oregon is tough.

Oregon had a sizable Nader vote, I think enough of those clowns will show up.  It'll stay with us.  

I agree, Midwest is the key this time.  Fortunately, I see Michigan going to the Dems, that's important considering its the biggest states there.  Ohio's blue this time, no question about it.  
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #3 on: February 18, 2004, 07:43:38 PM »

By blue, do you mean Bush or Kerry?
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #4 on: February 18, 2004, 07:45:28 PM »

Edwards : )  

No, I mean its the Democrats this time.  With the job losses there, I really don't see Ohio voters being too happy with Dubya this time around.  
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #5 on: February 18, 2004, 07:46:58 PM »

Edwards : )  

No, I mean its the Democrats this time.  With the job losses there, I really don't see Ohio voters being too happy with Dubya this time around.  
Don't forget the high muslim population, Gov Taft unpopularity and steel tariffs Smiley
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #6 on: February 18, 2004, 09:30:18 PM »

Edwards : )  

No, I mean its the Democrats this time.  With the job losses there, I really don't see Ohio voters being too happy with Dubya this time around.  
Don't forget the high muslim population, Gov Taft unpopularity and steel tariffs Smiley

Michigan has the high muslim population.
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zachman
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« Reply #7 on: February 18, 2004, 09:32:49 PM »

Its not that high a muslim population, its something around 8/1000 people. Thats less than 1%!

I'm not sure what Gore state will turn red. NM will if the Western strategy fails. Minnesota was surprisingly close last time, that means there is a huge republican base there. Thats my pick.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #8 on: February 18, 2004, 09:41:31 PM »

Edwards : )  

No, I mean its the Democrats this time.  With the job losses there, I really don't see Ohio voters being too happy with Dubya this time around.  
Don't forget the high muslim population, Gov Taft unpopularity and steel tariffs Smiley

Michigan has the high muslim population.
Ohio has a high muslim population also.
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zachman
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« Reply #9 on: February 18, 2004, 09:58:19 PM »

The muslim vote is not highly significant anywhere except NY and NJ which won't effect a close race.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #10 on: February 18, 2004, 10:02:54 PM »

The muslim vote is not highly significant anywhere except NY and NJ which won't effect a close race.
Something like 85% of the 60000 muslim votes in FL went Bush in 2000.
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M
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« Reply #11 on: February 18, 2004, 10:46:44 PM »

Lebanese communities are likely very GOP-leaning, and certainly Iranians. With Saudis it's hard to tell, they want us all dead so they'll either stay home or vote dem. Black muslims of course lean GOP.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #12 on: February 18, 2004, 10:49:38 PM »

Lebanese communities are likely very GOP-leaning, and certainly Iranians. With Saudis it's hard to tell, they want us all dead so they'll either stay home or vote dem. Black muslims of course lean GOP.
I think bush has alienated a majority of muslims.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #13 on: February 19, 2004, 12:16:15 AM »

Minnesota will go to Bush in this election unless Bush loses by more than 2% in the popular vote.  Minnesota has been treanding Republican for the past 10 years.
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StevenNick
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« Reply #14 on: February 19, 2004, 12:32:17 AM »

Did anybody see James Hoffa on Hardball yesterday.  He suggested that John Kerry was distancing himself from NAFTA in order to pander to Hoffa's Teamsters Union.  If that's true and John Kerry has endorsed some kind of protectionist stance, that could really hurt him in Michigan.  Combined with the high Iraqi population in Michigan, I wouldn't be surprised if Bush took the state in November.
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GOPman
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« Reply #15 on: February 19, 2004, 12:51:04 AM »

I think Pennsylvania and Minnesota will definetly go Repub this time around. I believe Iowa and New Mexico will also be leaning GOP. Don't even ask me about Florida, it will remain a Bush State for sure. I think the one that will be interesting is California. It most likely will go Dem but the margin may be close.
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Demrepdan
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« Reply #16 on: February 19, 2004, 01:11:37 AM »

New Mexico would definitely be in danger for Kerry. I don't know about Iowa, I mean...those candidates were practically LIVING there for the Iowa Caucus. I think Iowa won't forget them. Plus Iowa is a state that has lost many jobs. Minnesota will probably go Republican, but not by a great majority. Pennsylvania may be in slight jeopardy...but after the steel tariffs..and the lost jobs..and blah blah blah....I don't know. (Maybe Secretary Tom Ridge can go back there and say..."Hey! Remember me?!")

Oregon?...ehhh...maybe...but I doubt it would go Republican. I think Michigan will go Dem no matter who gets nominated. And of course...so will Illinois. But I wouldn't be surprised if all the states aforementioned.....ends up going Republican.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #17 on: February 19, 2004, 10:03:14 AM »

I would guess the biggest trouble would be New Mexico & Iowa.  I still think the dems have a very good chance to win both of those.  So long as Nader or anyone else to the left of the democrats, doesn't run, I would guess the Democrats are able to hold the rest of the Gore states (barring major economic improvement or Osama's capture).  If I had to pick one other potential trouble spot it would be Wisconsin.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #18 on: February 19, 2004, 10:04:28 AM »

I would guess the biggest trouble would be New Mexico & Iowa.  I still think the dems have a very good chance to win both of those.  So long as Nader or anyone else to the left of the democrats, doesn't run, I would guess the Democrats are able to hold the rest of the Gore states (barring major economic improvement or Osama's capture).  If I had to pick one other potential trouble spot it would be Wisconsin.
A new poll has us up 16% in wisconsin.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #19 on: February 19, 2004, 01:45:15 PM »

Depends on the nominee, but I don't think we'll we a lot of big changes from the average compared tp 2000. I think MN and WI are both safer than a lot of people think.
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zachman
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« Reply #20 on: February 19, 2004, 04:08:45 PM »

Iowa is not going to be trouble because Kerry and Edwards are both highly popular there. Is that really true that Democrats are up by 15% in  Wisconsin? Beef seemed to disagree, but he's thinking of voting for Bush in November.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #21 on: February 19, 2004, 04:16:43 PM »

Iowa is not going to be trouble because Kerry and Edwards are both highly popular there. Is that really true that Democrats are up by 15% in  Wisconsin? Beef seemed to disagree, but he's thinking of voting for Bush in November.
They're popular among the Democrats Smiley

Wisconsin:
Generic Democrat 54%
George W. Bush 38%

http://www.wisc.edu/uwsc/badg131.pdf
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zachman
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« Reply #22 on: February 19, 2004, 04:28:23 PM »

Yeah but the base there has grown for the democrats.
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« Reply #23 on: February 19, 2004, 05:42:25 PM »
« Edited: February 19, 2004, 05:43:06 PM by setyourselfonfire »

I live in Minnesota and have seen no sort of turn toward Bush, rather against him. But the polls here show pretty standard to the nation as a whole, so I say it'll be a bellweather, if the Dem wins he'll win Minnesota, easily. Although if the Dems are that high up in Wisconsin it even improves the chances here.

and people are making too much of a big deal out of the 2002 elections. The only reason the Republicans did so well was because they had high turnout due to being pissed off at the Wellstone memorial which the media definately made a mountain out of a molehill of. Plus not a single Republican statewide office holder got over 50%. And now people act like we've become Utah. geez.

I actually think the 2002 elections will work against bush because they made the Democrats here really mad and thus they'll be working overtime this year.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #24 on: February 19, 2004, 06:11:36 PM »

Iowa is not going to be trouble because Kerry and Edwards are both highly popular there. Is that really true that Democrats are up by 15% in  Wisconsin? Beef seemed to disagree, but he's thinking of voting for Bush in November.
They're popular among the Democrats Smiley

Wisconsin:
Generic Democrat 54%
George W. Bush 38%

http://www.wisc.edu/uwsc/badg131.pdf

Bush was up by 9% last May - granted, that was Wartime Euphoria. Smiley

Right now there are two factors that you need to take into account:
1. This latest poll was taken at a time in which Bush was taking a beating nationally.
2. The media focus is on the Democrat Primary, and the Dem candidates have gotten a huge amount of airtime.  Wait till Bush cracks open his warchest, and the GOP convention.  I guarantee that 15% margin's going to evaoprate.

Right now I'd handicap it 55-45 in favor of Kerry over Bush, 60-40 in favor of Edwards over Bush.  Still leaning Democrat, but not by any means safe.  Like I said earlier, this is a state that's *trending* Republican.
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