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Author Topic: Is NJ solidly Democratic yet?  (Read 2602 times)
HockeyDude
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« on: February 22, 2004, 12:19:34 pm »
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JW, I live there.  It'd be nice to know.  We went pretty big for Gore (56-40), have a Democratic state legislature, governor, and hold both Senate seats.  But we were republican for a long time.  
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If it comes to that, yes, but there is no reason to be that pessimistic.
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« Reply #1 on: February 22, 2004, 12:33:50 pm »
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Depends what you mean by "solid"
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #2 on: February 22, 2004, 12:42:20 pm »
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I think that it could still swing GOP.  I acctually think that it may have a greater liklyhood of swinging than California.
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HockeyDude
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« Reply #3 on: February 22, 2004, 12:48:01 pm »
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Depends what you mean by "solid"

In terms of the presidential race.  Can the Dems count on Jersey like they can New York or Massachusetts.
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If it comes to that, yes, but there is no reason to be that pessimistic.
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« Reply #4 on: February 22, 2004, 12:58:17 pm »
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Depends what you mean by "solid"

In terms of the presidential race.  Can the Dems count on Jersey like they can New York or Massachusetts.

No.
And for two reasons.
The first is the fact that over the past 3 years the Democrats seem to have gained in poorer rural areas, while the GOP seems to have gained in more affluent suburbs.
The second is the fact that old voting patterns never really die.
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #5 on: February 22, 2004, 02:09:31 pm »
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it may not be as dependable as NY or MA, but I can't see the Democrats losing the state except in a massive blowout. I would at least put it as safe as Illinois.
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« Reply #6 on: February 22, 2004, 02:24:20 pm »
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Yeah.  If the Dems lose NJ, then they're gonna be losing some others states too, and lose the whole thing badly.
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zachman
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« Reply #7 on: February 22, 2004, 02:36:46 pm »
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In the Dukakis blowout in 88', the dems lost NJ by 14%. Although this was not a typical election, Dukakis did carry Oregon, West Virginia and the upper-midwest, while losing the mid-atlantic Connecticut and Northern New England. NJ barely chose Clinton over Bush in 92'. I think NJ could be a swing state if the Republicans ran a Northern, or Western candidate who is a social moderate.
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« Reply #8 on: February 22, 2004, 03:36:12 pm »
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Even though democrats won a majority of seats to the state legislature last November, it was only because of gerrymandering.  Republicans actually won a majority of votes statewide in the state congressional elections.  I wouldn't bet on New Jersey being "solidly" democratic any time soon.
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MAS117
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« Reply #9 on: February 22, 2004, 04:18:05 pm »
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hockeydude, nj is most def democratic. the problem is party members are divided because of McGreevey
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« Reply #10 on: February 22, 2004, 04:54:35 pm »
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NJ was way different in '88 and '92. Over the 90s it moved swiftly the left, as the suburbs became more Democratic because of social issues, and people from NYC moved there. The same is happening in Long Island and the northern suburbs of NYC, once Republican strongholds, now becoming heavily Democratic.

whatever the case, there is no way someone like Bush, an American Taliban on social issues, could win in New Jersey.
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« Reply #11 on: February 22, 2004, 10:54:52 pm »
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In general, NJ is Democratic.  Republicans can win there, in my opinion, depending on who the candidates are.  Whitman was Governor there for a while, and the Democrats were losing the 2002 Senate race pretty badly for the longest time.  But it seems that either the Republican has to be rather moderate, or there has to be something seriously wrong with the Democrat in order for the Democrat to lose...neither of which is likely to happen come November.  To sum up...I think Republicans can win in NJ, but not Bush.

To reiterate what some others have said, the Democrats will only lose New Jersey in a landslide.
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Brutus
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« Reply #12 on: February 23, 2004, 02:32:40 am »
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In the Dukakis blowout in 88', the dems lost NJ by 14%. Although this was not a typical election, Dukakis did carry Oregon, West Virginia and the upper-midwest, while losing the mid-atlantic Connecticut and Northern New England. NJ barely chose Clinton over Bush in 92'. I think NJ could be a swing state if the Republicans ran a Northern, or Western candidate who is a social moderate.

One could say, "this isn't your father's Republican party."  The GOP has changed a lot since Republicans like Thomas Dewey, or even Gerald Ford, were strong candidates in the North.  I agree with what seems to be the consensus here - that Bush won't win NJ unless it's a landslide on par with a 1972 or 1984.  In the future, however,  a candidate like Guiliani could make it very competitive.
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« Reply #13 on: February 23, 2004, 12:10:09 pm »
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In the Dukakis blowout in 88', the dems lost NJ by 14%. Although this was not a typical election, Dukakis did carry Oregon, West Virginia and the upper-midwest, while losing the mid-atlantic Connecticut and Northern New England. NJ barely chose Clinton over Bush in 92'. I think NJ could be a swing state if the Republicans ran a Northern, or Western candidate who is a social moderate.

One could say, "this isn't your father's Republican party."  The GOP has changed a lot since Republicans like Thomas Dewey, or even Gerald Ford, were strong candidates in the North.  I agree with what seems to be the consensus here - that Bush won't win NJ unless it's a landslide on par with a 1972 or 1984.  In the future, however,  a candidate like Guiliani could make it very competitive.


I think you're right - the party has changed so much since the days when it really didn't stand for anything.  On the other hand I don't think the Democrats have changed all that much.  
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emergingDmajority1
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« Reply #14 on: February 23, 2004, 12:11:51 pm »
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The GOP has taken a pounding in Jersey, we're very solidly Dem. It wouldn't surprise me to see Kerry or Edwards get 60% here in November.

Does a northeast republican that's socially moderate have a chance in jersey? Sure, maybe in 8-10 years though, but NJ shows no signs of even leaning to the GOP.
« Last Edit: February 23, 2004, 12:15:13 pm by emergingDmajority1 »Logged

Esteban Manuel
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« Reply #15 on: February 23, 2004, 02:45:26 pm »
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In fact NJ isn't solidly democrat as NY (polls say it's kinda tie, i don't think so) but definitively (as was said in another thread) they have to take NJ before they can take California.

We have to think, anyway, what happens with the vote patterns in the middle-class (and this is not and issue only in the US, everywhere when middle-class grow the vote patterns become weird)
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #16 on: February 23, 2004, 03:24:44 pm »
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NJ was in play if Dean was the Democrat, but I can't see Kerry losing it.
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MAS117
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« Reply #17 on: February 23, 2004, 09:22:03 pm »
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Both Dean and Kerry could win in the election... Since Kerry is going to be the nominee hell win by a lot
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #18 on: February 24, 2004, 03:28:53 pm »
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Both Dean and Kerry could win in the election... Since Kerry is going to be the nominee hell win by a lot

Dean can't win, and Kerry could win..but Bush would have to beat himself for Kerry to win.  Edwards could win even if Bush doesn't crap out.
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