Hispanic Vote Looks to Be Key Again in 2004

[HoopsCubs]

In the 2000 election, Gore-Lieberman secured 66% of the nationwide Hispanic vote compared to 32% for Bush-Cheney.  In all states (including New Mexico, California, Arizona, Colorado and Nevada) excluding Florida and Texas, Gore hit or exceeded 68%.  

In Texas, Gore only beat Bush 54-43.  

And in Florida, Bush beat Gore 49-48 in the Hispanic electorate.  This included nearly 80% of Cuban Americans voting for Bush - many of those in Dade County.   To let Nader off the hook, it is safe to say that Al Gore would be President today if his Florida Hispanic numbers had better mimicked his national average.

So, what about 2004?  Well, about 3.8 million or less than 4% of the voters in 1996 were Hispanic.  That number blossomed to 6.5 million or over 6% in 2000.  And some pundits say that the number could reach 11 million or 10% in 2004.

How will Kerry or Edwards fare in Florida this time around with respect to Hispanics as a whole, and specifically with Cuban Americans in Dade County?   Will 4 years removed from the Elian Gonzalez situation help them, or will the Bush name hurt them even more?  And, does the growing Hispanic electorate in Arizona, Colorado and Nevada tip those states to the Democratic column like New Mexico did in 2000?

I am interested in hearing your thoughts.

Thanks,
Hoops

[Beet]

I don't either side can take the hispanic vote entirely for granted and just count on demographic changes. Bush has been trying to reach out to hispanics and if the mood is very Republican late this year, hispanics won't be immune from that.

[© tweed]

In the 2000 election, Gore-Lieberman secured 66% of the nationwide Hispanic vote compared to 32% for Bush-Cheney.  

It was 61-38% for Gore.

[ncjake]

I'm a Cuban-American and I think most Cubans are still Republican, at least the ones I know are. I don't think Elian Gonzalez plays into the picture. It might have helped Bush in 2000, but in this upcoming election, I'm sure it won't have an impact on the vote.

[HoopsCubs]

I don't either side can take the hispanic vote entirely for granted and just count on demographic changes. Bush has been trying to reach out to hispanics and if the mood is very Republican late this year, hispanics won't be immune from that.

Do you think Kerry (assuming he's the candidate)  can win Florida if he turns the Hispanic vote into his favor?  


 

[Beet]

I don't either side can take the hispanic vote entirely for granted and just count on demographic changes. Bush has been trying to reach out to hispanics and if the mood is very Republican late this year, hispanics won't be immune from that.

Do you think Kerry (assuming he's the candidate)  can win Florida if he turns the Hispanic vote into his favor?  

Well no but I don't think he can win Florida unless he can win Miami, and in order to win Miami he will have to appeal to Cuban-Americans. I haven't heard Republicans do anything good for the Cubans; Jeb Bush's education proposal to hold back students from graduating, and his turning back of refugees from Cuba, shouldn't be too pleasing to the Miami Cuban-American community.

[zachman]

I think Kerry can win Florida, if he can make the election about hip America versus the unprincipled religious right who use their religion in politics. It is a risky choice, but it is what the diverse, urban America would like to hear- someone who thinks in the future versus a man from the past. Kerry is starting to look weak and a flip-flopper again, and won't try a revolutionary approach to changing the democratic party.

[classical liberal]

69.7% of Georgia's population lives in a metro area by 2001 census bureau estimates.

If the Dems snagged 3/4 of the metro area populations nationwide, as they have done in the northeast, they would control everything.

[MN-Troy]

69.7% of Georgia's population lives in a metro area by 2001 census bureau estimates.

If the Dems snagged 3/4 of the metro area populations nationwide, as they have done in the northeast, they would control everything.

How long did it take you to figure that out?

[classical liberal]

The number or the consequence?

[classical liberal]

I have read some articles in a Denver newspaper indicating that the Democrats have registered phenominal numbers of Hispanics in AZ, NM, FL, NV, and CO.

Actually in AZ there have been more new Hispanics then Bush's 2000 margin of victory.

I think that Mrs. Kerry's status as a white, African-American Latina will give her husband a thusfar underestimated boost should he win the nomination.

[M]

You don't know the New Aztlan demagogues.  There are no white Latinas. If the Chica is bronze, she's a Sister. If not, then buddy, she's as gringo as you are. Read up on MECHA and co.

And African? Do you know that a white South African boy in Missouri got suspended a couple weeks ago for runningfor the school's most talented African American?

[JNB]

 The 2002 Texas elections show what can happen to the Democrats if they play the race card for Hispanics too forcefully, a white backlash takes place that gives the GOP  more than 70% of the white vote.

[classical liberal]

You don't know the New Aztlan demagogues.  There are no white Latinas. If the Chica is bronze, she's a Sister. If not, then buddy, she's as gringo as you are. Read up on MECHA and co.

And African? Do you know that a white South African boy in Missouri got suspended a couple weeks ago for runningfor the school's most talented African American?

That's ridiculous, both the contest and that he was suspended.  The contest obviously was descriminatory if it specifies a group of people, fat chance of any civil rights advocate having a problem with this brand of descrimination though.

In any case, the kid was probably more of an African-American than anyone else in the school.

When I say Latina, I am refering to the fact that she was born and raised in a former Portugese province, just like a Brazilian-born girl is a Latina.

[MN-Troy]

The number or the consequence?

Neither! Just the obvious.

[MN-Troy]

 The 2002 Texas elections show what can happen to the Democrats if they play the race card for Hispanics too forcefully, a white backlash takes place that gives the GOP  more than 70% of the white vote.

Gov. Rick Perry received 35% of the Texan Hispanic vote in 2002, and he was running against a Hispanic Democrat.

The Democrats know the Hispanic vote is not going to be monolithic vote like the black vote. I wouldn?t be surprised in the near future, with both parties vying for the vote, the Hispanic voting population is split 50/50 around the country.