Taiwan elections

[jaichind]

As an incumbent, one could never count Chen out, no matter how far back Chen is in the polls.  There are still plenty of tricks in his bag.  The key question is how the undecided will break.  Most polls has Lien-Soong having a 45-35 lead in the polls.  Traditionally, most undecided break against the incumbent.  But Taiwan Province politics does not work like others.  Historically, the now ruling DPP captures a good deal of the undecided on election day.  This was mostly because DPP supporters were reluctant to indicate their voting preferences due to they fear that such a preference revealed to pollsters might come back to bite them by the then ruling KMT, especially during the early 1990s.  Also, DPP is strong in the less educated electorate who are also relectuant to indicate their preferences.
Even since the DPP capured power in 2000, the first factor has become less signficant.  If I had to guess now I will still give the edge to Lien-Soong.

But I feel the fact is that no matter who wins, the policy choices of whoever is in charge of Taipei is fairly limited.  Chinese reunifiation most likely cannot be delayed and for sure will take place within 15-20 years, no matter who is in charge in Taipei.  Another Chen administration would mean the chances of an armed attack by the PLA provoked by the Chen administration will go up but I suspect even Chen would not be foolish enough to try to tangle with the PLA.

[Gustaf]

As an incumbent, one could never count Chen out, no matter how far back Chen is in the polls.  There are still plenty of tricks in his bag.  The key question is how the undecided will break.  Most polls has Lien-Soong having a 45-35 lead in the polls.  Traditionally, most undecided break against the incumbent.  But Taiwan Province politics does not work like others.  Historically, the now ruling DPP captures a good deal of the undecided on election day.  This was mostly because DPP supporters were reluctant to indicate their voting preferences due to they fear that such a preference revealed to pollsters might come back to bite them by the then ruling KMT, especially during the early 1990s.  Also, DPP is strong in the less educated electorate who are also relectuant to indicate their preferences.
Even since the DPP capured power in 2000, the first factor has become less signficant.  If I had to guess now I will still give the edge to Lien-Soong.

But I feel the fact is that no matter who wins, the policy choices of whoever is in charge of Taipei is fairly limited.  Chinese reunifiation most likely cannot be delayed and for sure will take place within 15-20 years, no matter who is in charge in Taipei.  Another Chen administration would mean the chances of an armed attack by the PLA provoked by the Chen administration will go up but I suspect even Chen would not be foolish enough to try to tangle with the PLA.

I hope you're wrong about reunification. That would be a sad event. Hopefully China will grow up and start acting like a modern nation state, not like the arrogant, Machiavellian, nineteenth century imperialists they are right now.

[Sibboleth]

Free Tibet!
Free Uigherstan!
Free Inner Mongolia!
Free Manchuria!
Free Hong Kong!
Promote Human Rights!
Annoy Jaichind!

[Gustaf]

Free Tibet!
Free Uigherstan!
Free Inner Mongolia!
Free Manchuria!
Free Hong Kong!
Promote Human Rights!
Annoy Jaichind!

Yeah, it probably will. JR actually tried to enroll him for the fantasy elections...

Uigherstan, is that the Moslem place in western China? Or am I completely off track?

[12th Doctor]

But that is a problem.  TAIWAN IS NOT A SOVEREIGN STATE.  Republic of China(ROC) is a sovereign state.  As per the Constitution of the Republic of China, Taiwan and Mailand China both belong to ROC.  As per the Constitution of the Peoples Republic of China(PRC), Taiwan and Mainland China belong to PRC.   This is a classic CIVIL WAR.  International law for sure does NOT apply.  If a PRC attack on Taiwan Province violates international law then when PRC took over Hainan Island in 1950 from ROC armed forces and ROC, that act should also be considered a violation of international law.  As of March 1950, the legal status of Hainan Island (same place the US spy plane was forced to land back in April 2001) and Taiwan Province were the same.  Do not see why the attack by PRC in 1950 was legal and an attack today on Taiwan Province is illegal under international law.

The UN got it right: "There is only One legal govenment of China and Taiwan is part of that One China."  

This is a domestic affair of the Chinese.  International law does not apply.

When Hitler holocausted the Jews it was not a domestic affair. When Saddam Hussein gassed the Kurds it was not a domestic affair. And if China invades what is for all practical purposes an independent democratic state, then it will NOT be a domestic affair. If you read my post you will notice it says "what should rightly be a sovereign state". I know it isn't, but it should be. They have a different political system and should be allowed to pursue it. You have previosly drawn comparisons with the imperialistic policies of Western powers in the nineteenth century and I am inclined to agree. But that was a hundred years ago and China should start readjusting itself to a modern world where you don't use out-dated imperialist arguments to force yourself on other peoples. Like Tibet, Hongkong or Taiwan.

I agree.  Tiawan, Tibet, Hong Kong, Manchuria and Uigherstan are not Chinese.  They were siezed illegally (accept Tiawan) by a rouge government that STILL commits terrible human rights abuses.  The only reason that the UN will not recongnize Tiawan is because of the influence of the ChiComms on the Security Council.  It's wrong!  Plain and simple.  I can only hope that the influence of Hong Kong will be enough to topple the ChiComm government.

[Gustaf]

But that is a problem.  TAIWAN IS NOT A SOVEREIGN STATE.  Republic of China(ROC) is a sovereign state.  As per the Constitution of the Republic of China, Taiwan and Mailand China both belong to ROC.  As per the Constitution of the Peoples Republic of China(PRC), Taiwan and Mainland China belong to PRC.   This is a classic CIVIL WAR.  International law for sure does NOT apply.  If a PRC attack on Taiwan Province violates international law then when PRC took over Hainan Island in 1950 from ROC armed forces and ROC, that act should also be considered a violation of international law.  As of March 1950, the legal status of Hainan Island (same place the US spy plane was forced to land back in April 2001) and Taiwan Province were the same.  Do not see why the attack by PRC in 1950 was legal and an attack today on Taiwan Province is illegal under international law.

The UN got it right: "There is only One legal govenment of China and Taiwan is part of that One China."  

This is a domestic affair of the Chinese.  International law does not apply.

When Hitler holocausted the Jews it was not a domestic affair. When Saddam Hussein gassed the Kurds it was not a domestic affair. And if China invades what is for all practical purposes an independent democratic state, then it will NOT be a domestic affair. If you read my post you will notice it says "what should rightly be a sovereign state". I know it isn't, but it should be. They have a different political system and should be allowed to pursue it. You have previosly drawn comparisons with the imperialistic policies of Western powers in the nineteenth century and I am inclined to agree. But that was a hundred years ago and China should start readjusting itself to a modern world where you don't use out-dated imperialist arguments to force yourself on other peoples. Like Tibet, Hongkong or Taiwan.

I agree.  Tiawan, Tibet, Hong Kong, Manchuria and Uigherstan are not Chinese.  They were siezed illegally (accept Tiawan) by a rouge government that STILL commits terrible human rights abuses.  The only reason that the UN will not recongnize Tiawan is because of the influence of the ChiComms on the Security Council.  It's wrong!  Plain and simple.  I can only hope that the influence of Hong Kong will be enough to topple the ChiComm government.

One could certainly hope so...probably wont happen though. It would be sad to see Hongkong succumb to the Chinese altogether. I've read the great novels by James Clavell, and held an interest in Hongkong ever since. I wonder if Clavell is still alive? If not, he must be turning in his grave...

[© Tweed the Younger]

Free Tibet!
Free Uigherstan!
Free Inner Mongolia!
Free Manchuria!
Free Hong Kong!
Promote Human Rights!
Annoy Jaichind!

Why would that annoy him?

[Sibboleth]

Because he is a Chinese ultra-nationalist who views democracy and human rights with utter contempt.

[Gustaf]

Because he is a Chinese ultra-nationalist who views democracy and human rights with utter contempt.

That's right. He is actually against democracy, the first person I have ever met to speak openly against it. (A surprisingly large number of people are against democracy, but few will admot directly to it). Perhaps he's a Chinese intelligence officer out to infiltrate the western world, lol...

[© Tweed the Younger]

Because he is a Chinese ultra-nationalist who views democracy and human rights with utter contempt.

Why is he a libertarian then?

[Gustaf]

Because he is a Chinese ultra-nationalist who views democracy and human rights with utter contempt.

Why is he a libertarian then?

Don't ask me. He's a mystery...

[© Tweed the Younger]

He doesn't post that much.

[Gustaf]

He doesn't post that much.

No, not besides predicting a win for the pro-Commie parties in Taiwan, and telling us how bad things are in Taiwan, and how much better off they would be if they joined China. And criticizing democracy, of course.

[© Tweed the Younger]

He doesn't post that much.

No, not besides predicting a win for the pro-Commie parties in Taiwan, and telling us how bad things are in Taiwan, and how much better off they would be if they joined China. And criticizing democracy, of course.

He sounds like an interesting guy...lol..

[Michael Z]

He doesn't post that much.

No, not besides predicting a win for the pro-Commie parties in Taiwan, and telling us how bad things are in Taiwan, and how much better off they would be if they joined China. And criticizing democracy, of course.

He sounds like an interesting guy...lol..

Indeed. He also defended Russian fascist Vladimir Zhirinovsky and the concept of imperalistic expansionism.

[© Tweed the Younger]

We are all entitled to our opinions.
Well, maybe not if you ask Jaichind.

[Gustaf]

We are all entitled to our opinions.
Well, maybe not if you ask Jaichind.

Lol, haha...

[© Tweed the Younger]

It was a lame swipe at humor, but it worked.

[Gustaf]

It was a lame swipe at humor, but it worked.

Rather lame, yes...

[© Tweed the Younger]

What time is it over there?

[Gustaf]

What time is it over there?

In Sweden? 2 a.m.

In Taiwan? Something like noon, but I don't know. I think he lives in NY, though.

[© Tweed the Younger]

2 AM is late.  Aren't you tired?  Get some sleep.

So that means when I'm waking up you're getting out of school, and a few hours after I fall asleep, you get up.  Time Zones are cool.

[Gustaf]

2 AM is late.  Aren't you tired?  Get some sleep.

So that means when I'm waking up you're getting out of school, and a few hours after I fall asleep, you get up.  Time Zones are cool.

Yeah, but also annoying...I am never on the same time as anyone else. I don't feel tired, strangely enough, but I probably will tomorrow...

I will go to bed...in a while....

[© Tweed the Younger]

What do they have on television is Sweden at 2:00? (AM, that is)

[Gustaf]

What do they have on television is Sweden at 2:00? (AM, that is)

Ehhhh....no idea really...bad films, I guess, reruns. Some network broadcasts one of your late night shows, Jay Leno or Conan O'Brien. Why do you ask?