Taiwan elections

[© tweed]

Haha.  We have Saturday Night Live, you have bad films.

[Gustaf]

Haha.  We have Saturday Night Live, you have bad films.

Well, few people are up watching tv by that time of night.

[© tweed]

Haha.  We have Saturday Night Live, you have bad films.

Well, few people are up watching tv by that time of night.

Plenty of people watch SNL.  Unless you were talking about sweden.

[Gustaf]

Haha.  We have Saturday Night Live, you have bad films.

Well, few people are up watching tv by that time of night.

Plenty of people watch SNL.  Unless you were talking about sweden.

I was talking about Sweden, and also I have no idea whatsoever about what SNL is.

[© tweed]

SNL=Saturday Night Live.

[Gustaf]

SNL=Saturday Night Live.

Ah, I should have gotten that. It was broadcasted in Sweden a few months ago, I remember watching a trailer for it of some sort. It included Chevy Chase doing a parody of Robert de Niro in "Taxi Driver". Never watched it though.

[© tweed]

AL Sharpton ohosted SNL about a month ago.

[jaichind]

Field Report from Taiwan Province for the March 2004 ROC Presidential elections.  

I spent about 17 days on Taiwan Province for Chinese New Year.  Despite visiting the province twice a year I did not have a chance to spend Chinese New Year on my home province since I moved to the USA.  I managed to visit 12 of the 23 counties/cities on Taiwan Province.  These 23 counties/cities plus the two counties on Fujian Province will form the election regions for the March 20 2004 Presidential elections.

Most polls indicates a 7-15 point lead for the Lien-Soong ticket over the incumbent DPP Chen-Lu.  On the whole, the self-employed, those above 60, lower income, rural, low educated, Southern counties are for Chen-Lu and professional, middle aged, upper middle class, urban, highly educated, Northern counties are for Lien-Soong.  In 2000, Lien and Soong ran seperately and captured 23% and 37%  respectively while Chen captured 39% in a winning effert.  It would be a mistake, of course to predict a Lien-Soong based on the 2000 results as former KMT chairman Lee Teng-Hui is now actively working for Chen-Lu an for sure have the 5-10% pro-Lee block with him from the pan-Blue block to the pan-Green block.

What I discovered during my visit was the the electorate is highly polarized around the demographic groups I mentioned aboved.  It was not so in 2000.  Almost all my relatives and friends of relatives match the demographic profile of the pan-Blue block.  Of the several dozen friend/relatives of my back on Taiwan province, about one third supported Chen-Lu back in 2000 but none support them this time around.  Those who voted for Chen-Lu are mostly not voting due to the poor record of Chen-Lu administration and could not bring themselves to vote for the pro-unification pan-Blue block.  One of course cannot call the race for Lien-Soong based on this unscientific survey.  One can go to the rural counties of Southern Taiwan Province and find a smiliar polarization in favor of Chen-Lu relative to 2004.  

I attended a Lien-Soong campaign rally and was a spectator at a Chen-Lu campaign rally.  Unlike 2000, the pan-Blue rallies seem to have more energy.  This seems to be verified in the polls.  Regardless of the poll and relative lead of Lien-Soong over Chen-Lu, large majorities expect Lien-Soong to win the 2004 election.  Even the DPP poll which gives Lien-Soong a 2 point lead has a large majority that expect Lien-Soong to win.  Morale is clearly lower in the pan-Green camp.  This could very well change as there will be a massive 2/28 "Million hands across Taiwan" lead by the Lee Teng-Hui to rally for the Chen-Lu ticket so it would be too early for count Chen-Lu out.

Chen-Lu is far stronger in the Southern counties.  The political TV talk show "Taiwan Voice" moderated by rabid Taiwan Independence supporter Wong Ben-Hu is very popular in the Southern counties.  Despite my rapid pro-unification view, I enjoy his show as an alternative to most other poltical TV talk shows that are mostly pan-Blue and reflect Northern opinon. "Taiwan Voice" is high on emotion and could be an explosive force in pushing up turnout in the Southern counties and potentially push the election to Chen.  As of now, Lien-Soong and Chen-Lu are neck-to-neck in Southern Counties.  In Central Conties, Lien-Soong has a 5 point lead or so and in Northern Counties Lien-Soong has up to 20 point leads.

One way to get a good idea who are the partisans for each camp is to look at the Happy Chinese New Year signs outside each household/store.  While many are non-partisan in nature, a significant about of them are political in nature.  The are the Chinese answer to campaign signs the the American yards.  The disctribution of such signs pretty much match the results one gets from polls.  There are a lot more Lien-Soong signs in Taipei City where I was staying but the further South one moves along the coast the more Chen-Lu sign one sees.  In a rural town in Southern county of ChangHua I saw several streets where all signs of political nature are for Chen-Lu.  Likewise, in upper class districts in Taipei City where I spent a lot of time, Lien-Soong seem to dominate.

 

[jaichind]

There was a monster rally on 3/13 all across Taiwan Province and Fujian Province for the 3/20 ROC Prez elections.  The Pan-Blue historically has been weaker than the Pan-Green in political rallies.  The successful Pan-Green 2/28 rally which involved at least 1.5 million improved morale and had Chen-Lu closing within 3-5% of the Lien-Soong in polls making the race too close to call.  The Pan-Blue camp planned the 3/13 rally to try to reopen the lead.  The Chen's wife the First Lady made a mistake a couple of days ago in saying that the Pan-Blue rallies will be attended by "two or three cats at most."  This seems to have provoked the Pan-Blue supporters.  The Pan-Blue rallies attracted about 2.5 million and could have been as high as 3 million.  In almost all counties/cities across the ROC the size of the rallies broke all records.  

As of 3/10 all polls are banned on ROC.  Only way to estimate the state of the race is by odd makers.  Back in 9/2003 the odd makes expected a 53-47 win by Lien-Soong.  By 1/2004 it became 54-46.  The successful Pan-Green rally on 2/28/2003 had the odds makers calling it 51-49.  In lieu of the size of the monster Pan-Blue rallies, the odds are now for a 55-45 Lien-Soong victory.  

I still hold to my original prediction ot a 53-47 Lien-Soong victory I made last year.

[Gustaf]

Which day is the election?

[opebo]

Because he is a Chinese ultra-nationalist who views democracy and human rights with utter contempt.

You've just described the vast majority of the population of China.

[Gustaf]

Because he is a Chinese ultra-nationalist who views democracy and human rights with utter contempt.

You've just described the vast majority of the population of China.

And of the US...

j/k...I think...

[jaichind]

Which day is the election?

3/20  Election results should be out around 9:30PM or 9:30AM NY time.

[jaichind]

my ROC election predictions for 3/20

                                     Lien                   Chen
                                   
Taipei City                     59                        41

KaoShiung City              48                        52

Taiwan Province
     Taipei County           56                        44
     Keelung City             61                        39
     Yilan County             47                        53
     Taoyuan County       57                        43
     Tsintsu City               63                       37
     Tsintsu County         66                        34
     Miaoli County            64                        36
     Taichung City            55                        45
     Taichung County       53                        47
     Changhwa County    51                        49
     Nanto County           55                         45
     Yunlin County           49                         51
     Jiayi City                   49                         51
     Jiayi County              47                         53
     Tainan City               49                         51
     Tainan County          43                         57
     Kaoshiung County    49                         51
     Pingdong County      47                         53
     Hualian County         69                         31
     Taidong County        67                         33
     Penghu County         56                         44

Fujian Province
     Jinmen County          89                         11
     Lienjian County         91                          9
----------------------------------------------------------------
ROC                               53                         47

It really comes down to turnout.  I assume higher turnound in pro-Chen counties/cities.  If pro-Lien counties/cities turnout equals pro-Chen counties/cities then it should really be like 54/55-46/45 victory for Lien.