Has an incumbent every made up the type of ground Corzine has to?

[DownWithTheLeft]

I've been trying to find one and I can't at all.  Plenty of challengers (mostly recently Jim Webb) have but I can't find an incumbent who trailed by 10+% and his opponent was usually at or above 50% at most polls in July and won.  Hell, even Santorum wasn't trailing this bad in July 2006

Granholm, who seemed to be the worst faring incumbent at this point in 2006 that would go on to win, only trailed by at most 8%

[Alexander Hamilton]

Gerald Ford almost did. That's all I can think of, so no.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Gerald Ford almost did. That's all I can think of, so no.

Burns almost did as well in MT 2006.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Gerald Ford almost did. That's all I can think of, so no.

Burns almost did as well in MT 2006.

False, in July Burns trailed by 7 and the same poll in early August had the race tied

[War on Want]

Stevens almost did.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Gerald Ford almost did. That's all I can think of, so no.

Burns almost did as well in MT 2006.

False, in July Burns trailed by 7 and the same poll in early August had the race tied

A September poll had him down by 10 points a slightly narrower margin then Corzine is down by but much closer to the election. So it is not false when you consider that.

[War on Want]

Stevens almost did.

I checked, a rassy poll done on this exact date showed Begich 50, Stevens 37 race. So basically it is close to same margin as New Jersey's Race. I don't see the same thing happening to Corzine here but chances are the race will tighten up somewhat.

[Nym90]

Jesse Helms in 1984.

[SamInTheSouth]

Corzine's gone.

[The Mikado]

I can't see Corzine winning.  I just don't see it.

[Smid]

If a challenger is trailing, they can often make up ground because people don't have a firm opinion of them/lots of undecideds out there.

If an incumbent is trailing, it's usually because people know who they are and don't like them, so it's a lot harder for an incumbent to make up ground.

[Mr.Phips]

Don Young in 1992.  He trailed Democrat John Devens by about 20 points going into that election, but ended up winning 47%-43%.  Also Democrat Brendan Byrne in the 1977 New Jersey Governor's race.  He trailed his Republican opponent by 15 points at one point but ended up winning. 

[Alexander Hamilton]

Don Young in 1992.  He trailed Democrat John Devens by about 20 points going into that election, but ended up winning 47%-43%.  Also Democrat Brendan Byrne in the 1977 New Jersey Governor's race.  He trailed his Republican opponent by 15 points at one point but ended up winning. 

Don Young in 2008?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Don Young in 1992.  He trailed Democrat John Devens by about 20 points going into that election, but ended up winning 47%-43%.  Also Democrat Brendan Byrne in the 1977 New Jersey Governor's race.  He trailed his Republican opponent by 15 points at one point but ended up winning. 

Don Young in 2008?

When you remind your greedy state's voters how many bridges to nowhere that you brought home with taxpayer money from California, of course you end up winning in the end.

[Sam Spade]

Don Young in 1992.  He trailed Democrat John Devens by about 20 points going into that election, but ended up winning 47%-43%.  Also Democrat Brendan Byrne in the 1977 New Jersey Governor's race.  He trailed his Republican opponent by 15 points at one point but ended up winning. 

You do realize, given the state of Alaska polling, which was probably even worse back then, that a poll showing Young down 20 points meant he was probably ahead. 

Let's be blunt, coming from 10-15 points down at the end of July is not impossible, at all.  But it is a much more likely occurrence when the person down is not the incumbent.  Kinda like what Smid said.

[Alexander Hamilton]

Don Young in 1992.  He trailed Democrat John Devens by about 20 points going into that election, but ended up winning 47%-43%.  Also Democrat Brendan Byrne in the 1977 New Jersey Governor's race.  He trailed his Republican opponent by 15 points at one point but ended up winning. 

Don Young in 2008?

When you remind your greedy state's voters how many bridges to nowhere that you brought home with taxpayer money from California, of course you end up winning in the end.

Ted Stevens in 2008?

haha

[pogo stick]

It's New Jersey. I wouldn't  put it past them to vote in Corzine, I mean they did elect Christine Todd Whitman, and Jim McGreevey

[East Coast Republican]

It's New Jersey. I wouldn't  put it past them to vote in Corzine, I mean they did elect Christine Todd Whitman, and Jim McGreevey

What exactly do you have against Christie Whitman?  I suspect you don't like her because she is a moderate.  A true conservative would know that she represents true Conservatism.  The Republican Party may call her a moderate but she'll always be a true Conservative in my book.

I bet this gets put in the comedy goldmine.  And why?  Because a northern Republican doesn't want to keep gays from marrying and isn't pro life?  Right ok.

As far as McGreevey is concerned, the people of NJ didn't know he was going to turn out to be a hypocritical individual having gay sex and using his wife and children as cover.

[pogo stick]

Um.. I hate her because she can not govern. I like some moderates, like Jodi Rell

[East Coast Republican]

Um.. I hate her because she can not govern. I like some moderates, like Jodi Rell

lol.  In that case, I'm not as annoyed as I was earlier.

Regarding her governing skills-well, she had her set of problems.

We'll leave it at that.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

It's been said before, but NJ's own Brendan Byrne is really the best example (and the example Corzine should be looking to). It requires Corzine to embrace the fact that he sucks (good luck with that) and then convince the public that Christie sucks more and doesn't deserve election solely based on his not-Corzine status.

In effect, Byrne was able to refocus on the issues. Corzine doesn't seem to want to do that. Because, unlike the Byrne/Bateman matchup, Corzine's issue positions aren't really superior and more thought out than Christies'.

A comeback of this magnitude would require a shrewd, strong campaigner.

And, as such, Corzine will lose.

[Badger]

Bush 41 was a quasi-incumbent in 1988, and came back from a worse deficit.

So far, the Byrne 77 race is obviously the closest comparison, though I certainly won't vouch for the science art of accurate polling over 30 years ago.

[Alexander Hamilton]

Bush 41 was a quasi-incumbent in 1988, and came back from a worse deficit.

So far, the Byrne 77 race is obviously the closest comparison, though I certainly won't vouch for the science art of accurate polling over 30 years ago.

More like... Dukakis lost a wide lead. I think that election had much more to do with how terrible Dukakis was at everything he tried to do, more than anything else that could possibly have affected the outcome.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It's New Jersey. I wouldn't  put it past them to vote in Corzine, I mean they did elect Christine Todd Whitman, and Jim McGreevey

What exactly do you have against Christie Whitman?  I suspect you don't like her because she is a moderate.  A true conservative would know that she represents true Conservatism.  The Republican Party may call her a moderate but she'll always be a true Conservative in my book.

I bet this gets put in the comedy goldmine.  And why?  Because a northern Republican doesn't want to keep gays from marrying and isn't pro life?  Right ok.

As far as McGreevey is concerned, the people of NJ didn't know he was going to turn out to be a hypocritical individual having gay sex and using his wife and children as cover.

I take issue with your statement as a Northern Republican who does want to keep Gays from marrying and is pro-life.

Whitman is as much a conservative as Jacob Javits or Nelson Rockefeller was. The identity crisis among moderate Republicans is upsurd. They call themselves Libertarians untill it comes time to vote on Spending and they vote for massive sums to be spent by the treasury. That title can at least be justified on social issues, but to call yourselves conservatives I think qualifies as impersonation . You guys are not Libertarians and you guys are not conservatives. The beauty of it is, you don't have to be. I do beleive this is "Your Party Two" but I don't beleive its all your party. I also don't beleive you should mis-identify yourself and try to hide and deny people who don't hold your views the right to be in the party as well. But don't take it personally, on another thread I just criticized Jewish Conservative for doing the exact same thing only from the opposite direction.

[Alexander Hamilton]

It's New Jersey. I wouldn't  put it past them to vote in Corzine, I mean they did elect Christine Todd Whitman, and Jim McGreevey

What exactly do you have against Christie Whitman?  I suspect you don't like her because she is a moderate.  A true conservative would know that she represents true Conservatism.  The Republican Party may call her a moderate but she'll always be a true Conservative in my book.

I bet this gets put in the comedy goldmine.  And why?  Because a northern Republican doesn't want to keep gays from marrying and isn't pro life?  Right ok.

As far as McGreevey is concerned, the people of NJ didn't know he was going to turn out to be a hypocritical individual having gay sex and using his wife and children as cover.

I take issue with your statement as a Northern Republican who does want to keep Gays from marrying and is pro-life.

Whitman is as much a conservative as Jacob Javits or Nelson Rockefeller was. The identity crisis among moderate Republicans is upsurd. They call themselves Libertarians untill it comes time to vote on Spending and they vote for massive sums to be spent by the treasury. That title can at least be justified on social issues, but to call yourselves conservatives I think qualifies as impersonation . You guys are not Libertarians and you guys are not conservatives. The beauty of it is, you don't have to be. I do beleive this is "Your Party Two" but I don't beleive its all your party. I also don't beleive you should mis-identify yourself and try to hide and deny people who don't hold your views the right to be in the party as well. But don't take it personally, on another thread I just criticized Jewish Conservative for doing the exact same thing only from the opposite direction.

But PA is Philly and Pittsburgh with "Alabama in between." Haha.