Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races

[Hillary 2016]

Kansas

Sam Brownback (R) 68.7%
Chris Steineger (D) 28.4%

Maine

Steve Rowe (D) 52.3%
Matt Jacobson (R) 44.2%

Michigan

Mike Cox (R) 52.3%
John Cherry (D) 46.5%

New Mexico

Diane Denish (D) 52.4%
Susana Martinez (R) 46.1%

Oklahoma

Mary Fallin (R) 59.9%
Drew Edmondson (D) 40.1%

Oregon

Gordon Smith (R) 50.1%
Bill Bradbury (D) 48.7%

Pennsylvania

Tom Corbett (R) 50.2%
Jack Wagner (D) 49.4%

Tennessee

Zach Wamp (R) 53.4%
Mike McWherter (D) 46.1%

Wyoming

Dave Freudenthal (D) 69.7%
Colin M. Simpson (R) 30.1%

Alabama

Kay Ivey (R) 54.3%
Artur Davis (D) 45.7%

California

Dianne Feinstein (D) 55.8%
Meg Whitman (R) 43.1%

Florida

Bill McCollum (R) 55.6%
Alex Sink (D) 44.0%

Georgia

Roy Barnes (D) 50.4%
John Oxendine (R) 48.7%

Hawaii

Neil Abercrombie (D) 50.6%
James Aiona (R) 48.7%

Minnesota

Mark Dayton (D) 53.2%
Norm Coleman (R) 45.6%

Rhode Island

Lincoln Chafee (I) 39.7%
Frank Caprio (D) 36.5%
Joe Trillo (R) 24.1%

South Carolina

J. Gresham Barrett (R) 59.7%
Robert Ford (D) 40.3%

South Dakota

Dave Knudson (R) 52.2%
Scott Heidepriem (D) 46.3%

Utah

Gary Herbert (R) 71.3%
Peter Corroon (D) 27.2%

Arkansas

Mark Beebe (D) 62.4%
Asa Hutchinson (R) 32.3%

Colorado

Bill Ritter (D) 58.8%
Scott McInnis (R) 40.0%

Illinois

Pat Quinn (D) 57.4%
Bill Brady (R) 38.4%

Iowa

Chet Culver (D) 54.3%
Steve King (R) 45.4%

Maryland

Martin O'Malley (D) 61.2%
Michael J. Pappas (R) 34.4%

Massachusetts

Charles D. Baker (R) 42.6%
Deval Patrick (D) 38.7%
Tim Cahill (I) 18.3%

New Hampshire

John Lynch (D) 58.9%
John Sununu (R) 40.1%

New York

Rudy Giuliani (R) 58.9%
David Paterson (D) 38.7%

Ohio

John Kasich (R) 51.2%
Ted Strickland (D) 48.4%

Wisconsin

Jim Doyle (D) 55.2%
Scott Walker (R) 44.3%

Alaska

Sean Parnell (R) 56.7%
Hollis French (D) 42.3%

Arizona

Phil Gordon (D) 49.3%
Jan Brewer (R) 48.4%

Connecticut

Jodi Rell (R) 67.5%
Dan Malloy (D) 30.2%

Idaho

Butch Otter (R) 63.0%
David H. Bieter (D) 34.2%

Nebraska

Dave Heineman (R) 69.7%
Steve Lathrop (D) 28.0%

Nevada

Catherine Cortez Masto (D) 54.6%
Bob Cashell (R) 44.2%

Texas

Rick Perry (R) 56.4%
Bill White (D) 43.1%

Vermont

Jim Douglas (R) 53.0%
Susan Bartlett (D) 46.5%

[CARLHAYDEN]

Well, lets start out with Arizona.

The Democrats are NOT going to nominate "sanctuary city" Gordon.

The Republicans are likely to not nominate "higher taxes" Brewer.

Insiders figure that Trent Franks will be nominated by the Republicans, and defeat Democrat nominee Terry Goddard.

[DownWithTheLeft]

The chances that Vermont is a two-way race is next to zero.  Other than that the only glaring disagreements I have are OR, WY, CA (b/c Feinstein won't run), GA, CO, IL, MD, MA, WI.  Actually, I don't really agree with many at all, I'm just uneducated at this time about a lot of races

[OC]

GA, WY, and AZ I would have to agree will go Republican.  NY, Cuomo will run and Paterson will step aside as far as Freudenthal, he won't run, it too far fetched for him to challenge term limits.  As far as Ma and MD those are going to be razor thin margins.

So, I disagree on GA, WY and AZ, and NY.

[The Illinoisian]

While Pat Quinn may be favored, now that he has avoided a Madigan primary, I don't think even the most optomistic Democrat thinks he will win with nearly a 20% victory; it will be much closer I believe. 

I am also not sure Brady will be the GOP candidate, but we'll see, that could be a pretty bruising primary. 

If the GOP decides on one candidate all factions can accept,  they could make a real run for it in IL I think, as after 8 years of hegemony the Democratic Party of IL is running out of steam.

[President Mitt]

I thought Georgia hated Roy Barnes.

[Hashemite]

You forget other candidates in Maine and Vermont. In Maine you have the Greenies, which can be up to 10% of the vote or even a strongish random Indie. In Vermont, you have the Progressives which range from 5% to 20% (Pollina), the Liberty Union which is a constant 1% nuissance, plus random Indies/Greenies.

[ajc0918]

Does Les Otten have a chance at all? He's running for Governor of Maine.

http://lesotten.com/

[Ronnie]

Does Les Otten have a chance at all? He's running for Governor of Maine.

http://lesotten.com/

Oh my God, he copied Obama's logo:

http://lesotten.com/images2/exploratory_bg.jpg

[Alexander Hamilton]

Ritter won't win.

[Dan the Roman]

I think Peter Mills, if he wins the nomination, has an extremely good chance of winning in Maine. Baker is looking like he may tank in MA with a lot of his support going to Cahill.

[xavier110]

There is no way Paterson will be the Democratic nominee. He'll either be prodded to step down and not bother with the primary or he'll be destroyed by Cuomo.

[OC]

Andrew Cuomo has a Kennedy clan connection, Kerry Kennedy Cuomo, I think that boast well for him and his chances as well.

[Chareth Cutestory]

O'Malley will never even come close to breaking 60%.

[ajc0918]

Florida: McCollum 54% ; Sink 44%

[Alexander Hamilton]

Florida: McCollum 54% ; Sink 44%

It seems like it'll be a lot closer than that. McCollum has lost statewide a couple times.

[ajc0918]

Florida: McCollum 54% ; Sink 44%

It seems like it'll be a lot closer than that. McCollum has lost statewide a couple times.

Yeah, I just like to be optimistic

[Alexander Hamilton]

Florida: McCollum 54% ; Sink 44%

It seems like it'll be a lot closer than that. McCollum has lost statewide a couple times.

Yeah, I just like to be optimistic

If that is the result, it will be good news for Fl Republican congressional candidates.

[brentster]

I agree with the results for the most part. Some note, however

In Oregon, I agree that Republican Gordon Smith would win should he run (and I don't think he will). Otherwise, I think a generic D beats a generic R there. Gordon Smih is still well thought of even after his recent narrow defeat for reelection to Senate, and he would be favored over a less impressive candidate like Bill Bradbury.

In Hawaii, which some analysts are already handing to the Dems as a foregone conclusion, I agree that that race will be much closer than many predict. Neil Abercrombie (D) is quirky and unpredictable, and James Aion's eight years in state-wide office under a popular Republican governor should count for something.

DiFi won't run in California. If Meg Whitman is the GOP nominee, she has an even shot against Jerry Brown and would be favored over Gavin Newsom. Dems have a long tradition of shooting themselves in the foot with Cal govenor races. Yes, Arnold isn't popular, but the Dem-run Legislature is even less so. This could easily be a Republican retention.

There's no way that Mary Fallin (R) blows by Drew Edmondson (D) by 20 points in Oklahoma. At worse, Edmondson has an even shot at winning. He's been in statewide office for about forever now already, and his family is practically an Oklahoma institution.

Finally, it's hard for me to fathom Texas voters wanting four more years of Rick Perry, though I admit it is possible. Should he survive the primary battle from Hutchison (and that's a big if), he would probably be a slight underdog to Bill White, who is a strong candidate for the Democrats (assuming he gets the Dem nomination). Perry could still pull through in the end, but it won't be anywhere close to 56%.

[nkpatel1279]

Democratic Seats.
Democrats will hold on to
AR- Beebe-D
CO- Ritter-D
IL- Quinn/Hynes-D
IA- Culver-D
ME- 
MD- O'Malley-D
MA- Patrick-D- narrow win.
NH- Lynch-D
NM- Denish-D
NY- if either Cuomo or Suozzi is the Democratic nominee.
OH- Strickland-D
OR- Kitzhaber or Bradbury-D
PA- if Wagner or Onorato is the Democratic nominee
WI- Lawton-D
WY-if Freudenthal-D is permited to run again.
Democrats will lose or likely lose.
KS- Brownback-R
MI- Cox-R
NY- if Paterson is the Democratic Nominee and Guiliani is the GOP nominee.
OK- Fallin-R
PA- if Knox is the Democratic nominee
TN- Wamp-R
WY- if Freudenthal-D is barred from running again.
Republican Seats.
Republicans will hold onto
AL- if Moore is not the GOP nominee.
AK- Parnell-R
CT- Rell-R
GA- Oxedine-R
ID- Otter-R
NE- Heineman-R
SC- Barrett-R
SD- Duragard-R
TX- Hutchison/Perry-R
UT- Herbert-R
VT- Douglas-R
Republicans will lose or likely lose
AL- if Moore is the GOP nominee
AZ- Goddard-D
CA- Brown-D
FL- Sink-D
HI- Abercrombie-D
MN- Rybak-D
NV- Whoever the Democratic nominee is will defeat Jim Gibbons
RI- Tossup between Chaffee-I vs Democratic Nominee. Republican Nominee is irrevelant.

[Former Moderate]

I predict nealpatel loses 200 seats in a landslide.

[brentster]

Which John Sununu are you predicting will be the Repubublican nominee in New Hampshire, the elder or younger? John E. Sununu recently lost his reelection bid to the Senate. His father, John H. Sununu, is a former governor and currently the chairman of the New Hampshire GOP.

[A-Bob]

The chances that Vermont is a two-way race is next to zero.  Other than that the only glaring disagreements I have are OR, WY, CA (b/c Feinstein won't run), GA, CO, IL, MD, MA, WI.  Actually, I don't really agree with many at all, I'm just uneducated at this time about a lot of races

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

I'm not going with percentage, but there's mu guess:

Alabama: Artur Davis (D), barerly

Alaska: Sean Parnell (R), safely

Arizona: Some Democrat instead of Brewer

Arkansas: Beebe (D), safely

Connectitut: Rell (R), safely

California: Brown (D), comforrtably

Colorado: Ritter (D)

Florida: McCollum (R)

Georgia: Tossup

Hawaii: Abercrombie (D), comfortably

Idaho: Otter (D), comfortably

Illinois: Quinn (D), comfortably

Iowa: Culver (D)

Kansas: Brownback (R), safely

Maine: IDK

Maryland: O'Malley (D)

Massachusetts: Patrick (D)

Michigan: IDK

Minnesota: Dayton (D)

Nebraska: Heineman (R), safely

Nevada: Some Democrat

New Hampshire: Lynch (D), safely

New Mexico: Denish (D)

New York: IDK

Ohio: Strickland (D), barely

Oklahoma: Fallin (R), comfortably

Oregon: Some Democrat

Pennsylvania: IDK, but I guess barerly Democrat

Rhode Island: Democratic

South Carolina: Safe D

South Dakota: Republican

Tennessee: IDK

Texas: Hutchison (R) barerly in primary and then in lansdlide in General

Utah: Herbert (R), safe

Vermont: Racine (D), comfortably

Wisconsin: Republican

Wyoming: If term limit overturned, Freudenthal (D) in landslide

[riceowl]

Bill White isn't running for governor.