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Author Topic: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races  (Read 17127 times)
nhmagic
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« Reply #25 on: September 13, 2009, 02:56:23 pm »
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Heres how I see it. (Note I accidentally forgot Connecticut and I didnt want to make another map, it should be Red though)

Alaska - Parnell, solid
California - This all depends on the candidate.  If Feinstein does run, she wins.  If the dems cannabalize themselves with crazies, as it looks like, then Whitman wins.  If Newsom wins the primary, Whitman wins.
Oregon - If Smith runs, he wins.  Kuglonski's never been liked in the state.  Maybe Kevin Mannix will make another run.
Idaho - R solid
Nevada - Im assuming that the reason Heller passed on the senate race was in order for him to run for governor.  In that case, the job goes to him.  If its not him, its probably D.
Utah - R solid
Arizona - Phil Gordon and Terry Goddard will cannabalize themselves in the primary.  Both are top tier democrats, and Gordon in particular is known for sleazy mudslinging.  The primary will get nasty.  Brewer will make it through.
Hawaii - Abercrombie, barely.
Wyoming - solid D
Colorado - Ritter is in deep trouble and he has a lot of good candidates running against him.  They are also polling better than him. R
New Mexico - dems hold on to this one, but if anything moves forward on Richardson, then Denish could find herself in trouble
Plains states all the way through Texas - all republican, including Texas (Texas will stick with Perry)
I dont see any partisan movement in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa or Illinois. - all D
Arkansas - Beebe solid D
Tennessee - Bredesen solid D
Alabama - I dont know the players in this one.  I think this may be the southern one I get wrong. I defaulted it at R.
Georgia - Barnes, D
Florida - McCollum will win, but not by much, he is a weak candidate, it will just be a really good Republican year
South Carolina - We will have a second Indian-American republican governor in the deep south. Nikki Haley
Michigan - Granholms destruction of the state will hand this one to Republicans
Ohio - Stricklands in trouble, but Kasich will win by only a slim margin
Pennsylvania - DRDRDRDR, we are on the R cycle in how this state elects governors
Maryland - O Malley solid D
New York - Giuliani, by a slim margin R
Connecticut - solid R
Rhode Island - Chafee will win
Vermont - with Douglas leaving, this is the most likely to turn D
New Hamshire & Maine - solid D

This produces a pickup of:
1 ind, 6 republicans
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #26 on: September 19, 2009, 11:07:57 pm »
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Sorry, Azmagic, but Brewer is toast.

She's been slicing herself up for several months.

Much of her staff has jumpted ship.

She may not even seek nomination.

The real question is who will be the Republican nominee.

Suggest you check Sonoran Alliance for updates on the situation.
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nhmagic
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« Reply #27 on: September 27, 2009, 06:52:00 pm »
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Sorry, Azmagic, but Brewer is toast.

She's been slicing herself up for several months.

Much of her staff has jumpted ship.

She may not even seek nomination.

The real question is who will be the Republican nominee.

Suggest you check Sonoran Alliance for updates on the situation.
Where are Vernon Parker and Dean Martin in their beliefs?  I want to find the most articulate conservative of the two and one that will go on the national circuit to attack Obama.  Renewed prosperity in our state can be used as a counter to all of the President's failed programs.  I would prefer Parker (since he's black and good looking, makes it easier) to have those qualities.  He's from PV though, and that could signal a McCain-like elite republican sort of deal - I dont want that.  And, as for the dems Goddard has another thing coming though if he expects to easily make it through the primary.  Gordon and Thomas are just itching to bring their machine statewide.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #28 on: September 27, 2009, 08:55:21 pm »
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Sorry, Azmagic, but Brewer is toast.

She's been slicing herself up for several months.

Much of her staff has jumpted ship.

She may not even seek nomination.

The real question is who will be the Republican nominee.

Suggest you check Sonoran Alliance for updates on the situation.
Where are Vernon Parker and Dean Martin in their beliefs?  I want to find the most articulate conservative of the two and one that will go on the national circuit to attack Obama.  Renewed prosperity in our state can be used as a counter to all of the President's failed programs.  I would prefer Parker (since he's black and good looking, makes it easier) to have those qualities.  He's from PV though, and that could signal a McCain-like elite republican sort of deal - I dont want that.  And, as for the dems Goddard has another thing coming though if he expects to easily make it through the primary.  Gordon and Thomas are just itching to bring their machine statewide.

Well, the suverys (and insiders) indicate that Dean Martin is favored by conservative Republicans as Parker is an enigma.

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Хahar
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« Reply #29 on: October 04, 2009, 07:34:04 pm »
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Feinstein's not running.
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« Reply #30 on: October 04, 2009, 09:23:05 pm »
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I seriously doubt Whitman would win. Campbell or even Poizner stand a much better chance.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #31 on: October 04, 2009, 09:51:41 pm »
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I seriously doubt Whitman would win. Campbell or even Poizner stand a much better chance.

Whitman committed political suicide the other day by declaring herself in favor of taxpayer funded abortions, supporting drastic 'gun control' and favoring taxpayers paying welfare for illegal aliens.

Oh, and she also adores Van Jones, the commie that got pushed under the bus by Obama.

« Last Edit: October 04, 2009, 09:58:55 pm by CARLHAYDEN »Logged

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nhmagic
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« Reply #32 on: October 05, 2009, 12:24:41 am »
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I seriously doubt Whitman would win. Campbell or even Poizner stand a much better chance.

Whitman committed political suicide the other day by declaring herself in favor of taxpayer funded abortions, supporting drastic 'gun control' and favoring taxpayers paying welfare for illegal aliens.

Oh, and she also adores Van Jones, the commie that got pushed under the bus by Obama.


Yep, Whitman's not winning now for sure - she wont make it out of the primary.  I am taking a close look at Campbell though.  Former SF Mayor Willie Brown wrote an article about him saying how focused he is compared to all D or R candidates and that his could make him king in the end.  Willie's a pretty shrewd political mind, so I'm keeping my eyeball on that one.
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« Reply #33 on: October 14, 2009, 04:30:58 pm »
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Quote
Texas

Rick Perry (R) 56.4%
Bill White (D) 43.1%
Bill White is running for senate not for governor and Hutchinson apears to be in a position to beat Perry. At least for now the texas race looks to be Hutchinson vs. Friedman. in that case Hutchinson will win big.
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Lol at those who think Barrow will lose.
Are they trying to fit in as many junk polls before Tuesday as possible?
Glorious news! even Quinnijunk can't get condom hater outside the margin of error, Udall is on track to deliver a good whipping[/q
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« Reply #34 on: October 16, 2009, 10:29:22 am »
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I think CA and MI will be a test to the Dems like NJ.  Doesn't always vote the same in Presidential elections like it does in midterm elections.  NJ, CA, and Mi will be taken like NJ and CO will be taken like VA.  Dems best case scenario is an even split in the governorships, but it will be a narrow republican victory or an even split.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #35 on: October 16, 2009, 02:45:59 pm »
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The governors Race in NJ is basically due to Corzine's unpopularity. Corzine-NJ can win if voters in NJ despise Christie-NJ as much as they despise Corzine. VA votes for the opposing party as the President.  Looking at other Governors Race.
Republicans are going to win the Governorship in every Southern State except for AR- which Beebe-will handily win. Republicans will pick up the Governorship in OK and TN. and hold onto AL,FL,GA,and SC.  Republicans will also pick up the Governorship of KS and WY and MI and PA two battleground states which switches parties every 8 years.
Democrats will pickup the Governorships in AZ,CA,HI,MN,and VT. RI is a tossup with either Chaffee or DEM nominee.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #36 on: October 17, 2009, 12:18:40 pm »
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2009 Governors Race Prediction
NJ- Corzine-D narrowly win re-election.
VA- McDonnell-R defeats Deeds-D by a high single digit margin. +1R
2010 Governors Race Prediction.
Democratic Retention.
1)AR-Beebe-D wins re-election by a landslide margin.
2)IL-Quinn-D or Hynes-D defeats whoever the GOP nominates.
3)IA- Culver-D vs Vander Platts-R- Culver-D wins.
4)ME-OPEN- Whoever the Democrats nominate is favored to defeat whoever the Republicans nominate.
5)MD-O'Malley-D wins re-election by a double digit margin.
6)MA-Patrick-D narrowly wins a three way race. Patrick-D 40%. Baker-R 35% and Cahill-I 25%
7)NH-Lynch-D wins re-election by a landslide margin.
8)NM-OPEN- Diane Denish-D defeats whoever the Republicans nominate by a double digit margin.
9)NY- If Democrats nominate Anyone but Paterson- Cuomo,Dinapoli,Suozzi,Weiner,etc.
10)OH-Strickland-D defeats Kasich-R by a high single digit margin.
11)OR-OPEN- ex Governor John Kitzhaber-D defeats whoever the Republicans nominates by a landslide margin.
12)WI-OPEN- Barbara Lawton-D defeats either Scott Walker or Mark Neumann-R by a narrow margin.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #37 on: October 17, 2009, 12:30:00 pm »
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2010 Governors Election
Republican Retention.
1)AL- Arthur Davis-D comes up narrowly short of being the first AA Governor of Alabama- narrowly losing to Tim James.
2)AK- Parnell-R wins a first 4 year term.
3)CT- Rell-R wins re-election by a high single digit margin over whoever the Democrats nominate.
4)FL- McCollum-R narrowly defeats Sink-D.
5)GA- Roy Barnes-D narrowly loses a bid for a comeback.
6)ID-Otter-R wins re-election by a landslide.
7)NE-Heineman-R wins re-election by a landslide.
8)SC- Whoever the Republicans nominate will be the next Governor of SC.
9)SD- Whoever the Republicans nominate will be the next Governor of SC.
10)TX- either Hutchison or Perry is strongly favored to win.
11)UT- Herbert-R is favored to win a special election.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #38 on: October 17, 2009, 12:44:32 pm »
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Democratic Pickups.
1)AZ- Goddard-D unseats Brewer-R by a narrow margin.
2)CA- Brown-D defeats whoever the Republicans nominate.
3)HI- Ambercrombie-D defeats Aiona-R.
4)MN- Whoever the Democrats nominate- Ryback or Dayton will be the next Governor of MN.
5)VT- Whoever the Democrats nominate- Racine or Markowitz will be the next Governor of VT.

Governors Races in RI-is a tossup between Chaffee-I or Whoever the Democratic nominee is.
NV- Gibbons will lose in the primary. If Democrats will nominate Rory Reid- who will lose to a generic Republican opponent- Brian Sandoval.  If Oscar Goodman enters- it will be a close 3 way race with Goodman-I winning.

Republican pickups.
1)CO- Ritter-D narrowly loses to McInnis-R.
2)IA- Branstad-D vs Culver-R
3)KS- Brownback-R is the next Governor of KS.
4)MI- Cox-R narrowly defeats Cherry-D.
5)OK- Fallin-R defeats whoever the Democrats nominate.

6)PA- Corbett-R narrowly defeats whoever the Democrats nominate.
7)TN- Whoever the Republicans nominate will be the next Governor of TN.
8)WY- whoever the Republicans nominate will be the next Governor of WY.

No significant change in the Governorship breakdown.
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« Reply #39 on: October 20, 2009, 12:54:19 pm »
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It's not to say that the GOP isn't favored to win in MI or PA or WI but those states are must win states critical to electoral victory in 2012.  We must hold those states if we have any chance in OH or CO or NV or even FL in 2012.  Back in the past, those states changed parties when the GOP were winning federal races back in the 90's.  Those aren't GOP trending states and the Dems will have a playing field in WI, PA, and MI in 2010.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #40 on: October 21, 2009, 10:04:18 am »
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During the 1990 and 1994 Governors Races. Republicans won the governorships in California(Pete Wilson-R),Illinios(Jim Edgar-R),Iowa(Terry Brandstad-R),Massachusetts(Bill Weld-R),Michigan(John Engler-R),Minnesota(Arne Carlson-R),New Hampshire(Steve Merill-R),Ohio(George Voinovich-R),and Wisconsin(Tommy Thompson-R). and Bill Clinton carried those states in 1992 and 1994.
Looking at the State which sent Republicans to the governorships in 1994 that voted Democratic at the presidential level.- Connecticut-(John Rowland/Jodi Rell-R), New York (George Pataki-R), Pennsylvania(Tom Ridge-R),and Rhode Island(Lincoln Almond/Don Carcieri-R).
Having a Democratic governor in Michigan,Ohio,Pennsylvania,and Florida is critical in the 2012 Congressional redistricting effort.
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« Reply #41 on: October 21, 2009, 12:10:32 pm »
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As we saw in the 2006 campaign cycle, the GOp was ahead in those states at this point during the campaign.  I am rooting for Knox in PA, he would have the best chance of beating Corbett.

As far as AZ goes, if the polling persist like it is, she won't run in the primary.  AZ is like MO, it likes its checks and balances but McCain can help anyone but Brewer win a state wide race.
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IDS Judicial Overlord PiT
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« Reply #42 on: November 29, 2009, 03:13:19 pm »
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     Is Dave Freudenthal considering retiring or has he become unpopular? I find it odd that so many people think the Republicans will pick up the Governor's Mansion in Wyoming.
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« Reply #43 on: November 29, 2009, 04:00:50 pm »
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     Is Dave Freudenthal considering retiring or has he become unpopular? I find it odd that so many people think the Republicans will pick up the Governor's Mansion in Wyoming.

He's term-limited; he's made noises about challenging the term limit law in court, but he's been dragging his feet on it, so everyone is probably assuming he's not going to do that.
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« Reply #44 on: November 29, 2009, 04:13:29 pm »
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     Is Dave Freudenthal considering retiring or has he become unpopular? I find it odd that so many people think the Republicans will pick up the Governor's Mansion in Wyoming.

He's term-limited; he's made noises about challenging the term limit law in court, but he's been dragging his feet on it, so everyone is probably assuming he's not going to do that.

     Okay, that makes sense. I haven't been following much of the 2010 elections until now, so I couldn't figure out why so many people figured the Republicans would win it, especially since this site lists it as an incumbent-held seat rather than an open one.
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« Reply #45 on: November 29, 2009, 04:17:59 pm »
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I hope we nominate Campbell, Whitman is weak and has many faults.
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« Reply #46 on: November 29, 2009, 04:21:00 pm »
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Also, comment my predictions! Angry
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Ronnie
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« Reply #47 on: November 29, 2009, 04:57:55 pm »
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I hope we nominate Campbell, Whitman is weak and has many faults.

But Whitman has $$$
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« Reply #48 on: November 29, 2009, 06:53:55 pm »
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I hope we nominate Campbell, Whitman is weak and has many faults.

     Nominating Campbell would be very good. Nominating Poizner would be good too. Nominating Whitman would be disastrous.
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Хahar
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« Reply #49 on: December 09, 2009, 04:24:22 am »
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Why bother? You'll lose.
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