Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races

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You forget other candidates in Maine and Vermont. In Maine you have the Greenies, which can be up to 10% of the vote or even a strongish random Indie. In Vermont, you have the Progressives which range from 5% to 20% (Pollina), the Liberty Union which is a constant 1% nuissance, plus random Indies/Greenies.

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Right now, Artur Davis is probably going to barely win Alabama. The GOP nominee is most likely going to be Byrne or Moore, which are both far less popular than Davis. Davis has the younger people, much of the urban areas, the black belt, etc. behind him. He has just enough to pull it off. Though, whomever the GOP nominee will be, he or she will most likely place emphasis the success of the Riley (R) administration.

Can Davis win enough white voters, that's the question. Obama pretty much had all blacks, young'uns and urban voters in 2008 but only got 38.7%. The make-or-break for Davis is his ability to appeal to conservative whites.