Right now, Artur Davis is probably going to barely win Alabama. The GOP nominee is most likely going to be Byrne or Moore, which are both far less popular than Davis. Davis has the younger people, much of the urban areas, the black belt, etc. behind him. He has just enough to pull it off. Though, whomever the GOP nominee will be, he or she will most likely place emphasis the success of the Riley (R) administration.
Can Davis win enough white voters, that's the question. Obama pretty much had all blacks, young'uns and urban voters in 2008 but only got 38.7%. The make-or-break for Davis is his ability to appeal to conservative whites.
He has the best chance. He's currently leading all projected GOP candidates. He's just too popular to lose. If he can win the key counties in the urban areas, ~30% of the rural white vote, the african american vote, etc, which he currently has support from all those, he will win. I'm fairly confident he will be the next governor.
I believe he was only leading in one poll, and it was within the margin...
