Who is going to be the major flop candidate?

[nhmagic]

Pat Toomey, once the state of Pennsylvania realizes how conservative he really is.

I actually think he's going to win big.  If Specter wins the primary (and Obama and Biden are trying to help him win), then Specter goes down in defeat.  Toomey also won in a district that had more democrats in it.  I wouldn't count him out.  The democrats in PA stand to lose the most from the healthcare travails.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Carly Fiorina should go down in flames.

     Except she doesn't look top notch now (or ever for that matter). You can't really flop when everyone knows that you're going to go down in flames.

[Dan the Roman]

Pat Toomey, once the state of Pennsylvania realizes how conservative he really is.

I actually think he's going to win big.  If Specter wins the primary (and Obama and Biden are trying to help him win), then Specter goes down in defeat.  Toomey also won in a district that had more democrats in it.  I wouldn't count him out.  The democrats in PA stand to lose the most from the healthcare travails.

I agree. Obama's worst mistake was Specter switching parties. Otherwise Specter would be going down to defeat in the Republican primary spending 10 million on vindictive attack ads on Toomey while Sestek waits in the general. Now the reverse will happen.

[Alexander Hamilton]

Pat Toomey, once the state of Pennsylvania realizes how conservative he really is.

I actually think he's going to win big.  If Specter wins the primary (and Obama and Biden are trying to help him win), then Specter goes down in defeat.  Toomey also won in a district that had more democrats in it.  I wouldn't count him out.  The democrats in PA stand to lose the most from the healthcare travails.

I agree. Obama's worst mistake was Specter switching parties. Otherwise Specter would be going down to defeat in the Republican primary spending 10 million on vindictive attack ads on Toomey while Sestek waits in the general. Now the reverse will happen.

Toomey is gonna get this. Reid and Dodd and Specter will flop hardest.

[Deldem]

Pat Toomey, once the state of Pennsylvania realizes how conservative he really is.

I actually think he's going to win big.  If Specter wins the primary (and Obama and Biden are trying to help him win), then Specter goes down in defeat.  Toomey also won in a district that had more democrats in it.  I wouldn't count him out.  The democrats in PA stand to lose the most from the healthcare travails.

I agree. Obama's worst mistake was Specter switching parties. Otherwise Specter would be going down to defeat in the Republican primary spending 10 million on vindictive attack ads on Toomey while Sestek waits in the general. Now the reverse will happen.

Toomey is gonna get this. Reid and Dodd and Specter will flop hardest.

I'm thinking that Specter will lose in the primary. Then Sestak won't have the taint of the dirty flip-flopper, and he'll get lots of money from the DNC so he can hold the seat. Democrats in Pennsylvania know he's a slimy s.o.b., and will vote him out.

[nkpatel1279]

Blunt(MO) is a dead duck from the getgo.- NRSC will be foolish not to abandon him.
Simmons(CT),Castle(DE),Kirk(IL),Ayotte(NH),Portman(OH) and Toomey(PA) are credible GOP candidates that will end up losing.
Toomey(PA) loses by a double digit.
Portman(OH),Ayotte(NH),and Kirk(IL) will lose by a high single digit margin.
Simmons(CT) and Castle(DE) will be 50-50 races.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Neal Patel seems to be a pretty big flop, from what I can tell.

[Alexander Hamilton]

Pat Toomey, once the state of Pennsylvania realizes how conservative he really is.

I actually think he's going to win big.  If Specter wins the primary (and Obama and Biden are trying to help him win), then Specter goes down in defeat.  Toomey also won in a district that had more democrats in it.  I wouldn't count him out.  The democrats in PA stand to lose the most from the healthcare travails.

I agree. Obama's worst mistake was Specter switching parties. Otherwise Specter would be going down to defeat in the Republican primary spending 10 million on vindictive attack ads on Toomey while Sestek waits in the general. Now the reverse will happen.

Toomey is gonna get this. Reid and Dodd and Specter will flop hardest.

I'm thinking that Specter will lose in the primary. Then Sestak won't have the taint of the dirty flip-flopper, and he'll get lots of money from the DNC so he can hold the seat. Democrats in Pennsylvania know he's a slimy s.o.b., and will vote him out.

Voted for Casey, Specter, and Santorum recently=I beg to differ

[Deldem]

Pat Toomey, once the state of Pennsylvania realizes how conservative he really is.

I actually think he's going to win big.  If Specter wins the primary (and Obama and Biden are trying to help him win), then Specter goes down in defeat.  Toomey also won in a district that had more democrats in it.  I wouldn't count him out.  The democrats in PA stand to lose the most from the healthcare travails.

I agree. Obama's worst mistake was Specter switching parties. Otherwise Specter would be going down to defeat in the Republican primary spending 10 million on vindictive attack ads on Toomey while Sestek waits in the general. Now the reverse will happen.

Toomey is gonna get this. Reid and Dodd and Specter will flop hardest.

I'm thinking that Specter will lose in the primary. Then Sestak won't have the taint of the dirty flip-flopper, and he'll get lots of money from the DNC so he can hold the seat. Democrats in Pennsylvania know he's a slimy s.o.b., and will vote him out.

Voted for Casey, Specter, and Santorum recently=I beg to differ

1. Casey is nowhere near as bad as Specter.
2. Specter was a loyal Republican in previous elections. The problems come when he switches parties and changes his beliefs in an effort for self-preservation.
3. He looked like he was only kind of crazy in 2000. When it became known how extreme he was in 2006, he lost by 18 points.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

My guesses: Kelly Ayotte, since she's never ran for anything before, and Jane Norton, who has never been elected to anything other than Lt. Governor on a ticket (see also Michael Steele). Also Charlie Melancon (if he runs) and Mark Kirk, who I believe are two sides of the same coin: moderate politicians who are not going to be able to beat their state's partisan leanings.

Jennifer Brunner and Marco Rubio are probably the biggest flops so far, but in Brunner's case, that tends to happen with the candidates hyped by the liberal blogs.

[Badger]

We'll see this when the whole democratic party goes down in flames.

My take on the 2010 midterms:

"Its ironic that Republican hopes for gaining seats rests on their hope that the recession caused primarily by their own economic mismanagement under Bush and distaste for regulating markets is sustained and painful into next year."

I hereby reserve the right to repeat this repeatedly anytime in the next year that Republicans get too joyful over declining poll numbers for Obama or any Democratic candidate.

[nhmagic]

We'll see this when the whole democratic party goes down in flames.

My take on the 2010 midterms:

"Its ironic that Republican hopes for gaining seats rests on their hope that the recession caused primarily by their own economic mismanagement under Bush and distaste for regulating markets is sustained and painful into next year."

I hereby reserve the right to repeat this repeatedly anytime in the next year that Republicans get too joyful over declining poll numbers for Obama or any Democratic candidate.

I don't think any of us legitimately want the market to fail for people - I would love for it to get better because it would help people out.  And our hopes for regaining seats has nothing to do with the recession continuing, but people seeing his socialist policies for what they are, which is happening now with the healthcare debate.

You have to admit though that having joy of declining poll numbers is:

a)what any partisan does, democrat or republican
b)mainly stronger for us because we haven't had a good year since 04
c)our desire to move past the inflated and outright disgusting positivity in the media towards Obama - a luxury never afforded to Bush when he was first in office

[biggzcorey]

Roy Blunt and whoever the dems run against Crist in Florida

[nkpatel1279]

Who ever challenges Blanche Lincoln or Arkansas?
Carly Fiorina of California?
Mark Kirk of Illinios?
Roy Blunt of Missouri?
Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire?
Robert Portman of Ohio?
Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania?
Who ever challenges Patty Murray of Washington?
Who ever challenges Russ Feingold of Wisconsin?

The difference between Blunt and whoever the Dems run in Florida against Crist- with the exception of Kendrick Meek is Blunt-MO is unelectable to any Democratic opponent except for Lacy Clay,Emanuel Cleaver,Bob Holden.  In Florida- Kendrick Meek can at least make the race a tossup against Marco Rubio but will lose by a landslide to Charlie Crist.

[Badger]

We'll see this when the whole democratic party goes down in flames.

My take on the 2010 midterms:

"Its ironic that Republican hopes for gaining seats rests on their hope that the recession caused primarily by their own economic mismanagement under Bush and distaste for regulating markets is sustained and painful into next year."

I hereby reserve the right to repeat this repeatedly anytime in the next year that Republicans get too joyful over declining poll numbers for Obama or any Democratic candidate.

I don't think any of us legitimately want the market to fail for people - I would love for it to get better because it would help people out.  And our hopes for regaining seats has nothing to do with the recession continuing, but people seeing his socialist policies for what they are, which is happening now with the healthcare debate.

You have to admit though that having joy of declining poll numbers is:

a)what any partisan does, democrat or republican
b)mainly stronger for us because we haven't had a good year since 04
c)our desire to move past the inflated and outright disgusting positivity in the media towards Obama - a luxury never afforded to Bush when he was first in office

Fair enough that most Republicans don't actually want the recession to be prolonged, but the connection between the enduring effects of failed conservative lassiz-faire policies and the GOP's political fortunes is tragically amusing. Voters primarily blaming Obama for the economy's condition for not undoing 8 years of mismanagement in his first 7 months is unfair and unrealistic, but entirely expected and even somewhat understandable as well.

As far as the health care debate, it's almost as ironic that the GOP is near unanimously digging its heels in and fighting any real reform tooth and nail, and if successful will assail Obama next year as "a do nothing president".

On your last points, I gotta agree with a) and b), but not c).

[Devilman88]

Harry Reid

[ajc0918]

Neal Patel seems to be a pretty big flop, from what I can tell.

agreed.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Arlen Specter, to me will be the major flip flop, he would do everything he could to be renominated, and then when it comes time to vote on after the election he will tend to vote along the lines he normally does.