2016: Cuomo (D) v. McDonnell (R) v. Cahill (I)

[pragmatic liberal]

OK, here's a fun little speculative take on 2016. This thread makes a LOT of assumptions, so keep this around - we can dig this up in 7 years and either remark about how eerily prescient it was or (more likely) how spectacularly wrong it was.

Let's assume that Barack Obama serves two terms as president. His popularity as an outgoing president is in the high 50s/low 60s as his term winds down, but the Republicans now have a narrow generic ballot lead, and Republicans have made gains in the 2014 midterms.

On the Democratic side, neither Vice President Biden or former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton choose to run. The Democrats nominate Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York. Amidst pressure to nominate a woman for the second spot, Cuomo selects Rep. Kathy Castor of Florida as his running mate.

Republicans nominate former Gov. Bob McDonnell of Virginia for president after a tight primary between McDonnell and former Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana. McDonnell selects Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin for as his vice-presidential running mate.

Gov. Tim Cahill of Massachusetts, an independent and former Democrat, runs for president on a third-party ticket. He selects former Republican Rep. Tom Campbell of California as his running mate.

How does the race turn out?

Cuomo//Castor (D)
McDonnell//Walker (R)
Cahill//Campbell (I)

[pogo stick]

Niiiccceee McDonnell / Walker! FTW!

[Reaganfan]

[Hillary 2016]

I don't think that there would be that much support for Tim Cahill, unless he has billions to spend on a campaign (maybe Mike Bloomberg can help him).

So, Cuomo-Castor or McDonnell-Walker?

I just don't see either of these candidates being that exciting.  Kathy Castor would probably be able to rally the Democratic base.  I think Andrew would need to come out and be the progressive candidate - supporting marriage equality, the environment, the working poor, and of course, a public health insurance option (since I do not think that the support now in 2009).

McDonnell-Walker would be a generic Republican ticket.

Kathy Castor's Florida would swing her way.  There are a lot of old New Yorkers in the Sunshine State too, and they will have fond memories of Andrew's father, Mario, who was Governor in the 1980s.

The Northeast would be Cuomo-Castor Country.  There are a lot of urban ethnics up there and a lot of Italian-Americans and Mario would be the first Italian-American President.

The "Obama South" will recede back to red state status, and this will be the first election where Florida begins a century-long transition into a blue state.  (Keep in mind that Castor is from the Tampa area, which is Swing City in FL.  Her presence on the ticket will cause FL to be more blue than usual).

The McCain states (Appalachia) with the exception of Pennsylvania and Ohio will go strongly for McDonnell.

The Southwest will be up for grabs and four of these states (CO, NM, NV, and AZ) will be toss-ups until the very end.

The Pacific Ocean states (excluding AK) will vote for Cuomo-Castor.  This ticket will be much stronger than Kerry-Edwards and young voters in these three states will favor the Democrats.

I see the states going this way, and for the 2016 election, the electoral votes are changed according to current projections:

Electoral Votes

Cuomo-Castor 271 EVs
McDonnell-Walker 231 EVs

Popular Votes

Cuomo-Castor - 62,191,103
McDonnell-Walker - 58,713,042

Here are the ten closest states and their winning margins:
Wisconsin - 0.23
Minnesota - 0.38
Arizona - 0.56
Iowa - 0.58
Ohio - 0.93
New Mexico - 0.98
Michigan - 1.15
Nevada - 1.28
Colorado - 1.48
Missouri - 1.74

[big bad fab]

This topic should be in What-Ifs board.

[big bad fab]

Anyways, Cuomo has it with 293 (against 233 and 12), but Cahill makes the Dems lose in DE and MI (and have lesser results in NJ, MD, NH, ME, RI, CT). Cahill is just able to carry his own state.

[feeblepizza]

Anyways, Cuomo has it with 293 (against 233 and 12), but Cahill makes the Dems lose in DE and MI (and have lesser results in NJ, MD, NH, ME, RI, CT). Cahill is just able to carry his own state.

Agreed. I would support Cahill though, no doubt about it.

[H. Ross Peron]

lol.

[Lief 🗽]

hahaha jesus christ

[Bull Moose Base]

Nope. Should have guessed the GOP primary will come down to the host of the Apprentice and 3 other guys you haven't heard of yet.

[King]

Who would win the crucial swing votes of cell block 7 in this race for head of the Los Corruptos gang?