CQPolitics House Ratings 2010

[HAnnA MArin County]

I guess these are going to be the most competitive according to CQ Politics. What does everyone think?

Toss-Ups
• ID-01: Walt Minnick (D)
• MD-01: Frank M. Kratovil, Jr. (D)
• NY-23: John McHugh (R)

Leans Democratic
• AL-02: Bobby Bright (D)
• AL-05: Parker Griffith (D)
• AZ-05: Harry Mitchell (D)
• CO-04: Betsy Markey (D)
• CT-04: Jim Himes (D)
• FL-08: Alan Grayson (D)
• FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas (D)
• GA-08: Jim Marshall (D)
• GA-12: John Barrow (D)
• IL-10: Mark Kirk (R)
• MI-07: Mark Schauer (D)
• MI-09: Gary Peters (D)
• MS-01: Travis Childers (D)
• NC-08: Larry Kissell (D)
• NC-11: Heath Shuler (D)
• NH-01: Carol Shea Porter (D)
• NJ-03: John Adler (D)
• NM-02: Harry Teague (D)
• NV-03: Dina Titus (D)
• NY-19: John Hall (D)
• NY-20: Scott Murphy (D)
• NY-24: Michael Arcuri (D)
• NY-29: Eric Massa (D)
• OH-01: Steve Driehaus (D)
• OH-15: Mary Jo Kilroy (D)
• PA-06: Jim Gerlach (R)
• VA-05: Tom Perriello (D)
• WI-08: Steve Kagen (D)

Leans Republican
• AK-AL: Don Young (R)
• AL-03: Mike Rogers (R)
• CA-03: Dan Lungren (R)
• CA-44: Ken Calvert (R)
• FL-12: Adam Putnam (R)
• MI-11: Thaddeus McCotter (R)
• MN-03: Erik Paulsen (R)
• MN-06: Michele Bachmann (R)
• NE-02: Lee Terry (R)
• NJ-07: Leonard Lance (R)
• OH-02: Jean Schmidt (R)
• SC-01: Henry Brown (R)
• SC-02: Joe Wilson (R)
• WA-08: Dave Reichert (R)

For more ratings, visit http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-house. 

[politicalchick20]

I think that Joseph Cao's (R) seat, LA-2, should be considered a Toss-Up as well.

[Bacon King]

I think that Joseph Cao's (R) seat, LA-2, should be considered a Toss-Up as well.

Seriously? If it would be on this list at all it'd be a very strong lean Dem. It's probably not included because it's not even considered competitive.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I think we can add PA-07(?), Sestak's district, into the toss-up column, as Pat Meehan decided to run for that seat instead of governor.

[Brittain33]

I'll be the first of many people to say that NJ-7 and SC-2 are safer than "Lean Republican," and the only thing keeping SC-1 there is uncertainty about the incumbent's suckitude.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

AL-02, NM-02, and OH-01 should all be tossups.

CT-04, GA-12, MI-09, NC-11, and possibly NV-03 are not going to be competitive.

Nor are NJ-07, SC-01, or SC-02.

AK-AL, AL-03, CA-44, and OH-02 will probably be safe too, since the chance to win those seats has passed.

[Mr.Phips]

WI-08 probably should be likely Democrat as well.  Same with NY-19 and probably GA-08. 

[SamInTheSouth]

I'll be the first of many people to say that NJ-7 and SC-2 are safer than "Lean Republican," and the only thing keeping SC-1 there is uncertainty about the incumbent's suckitude.

Yeah, Brown is a total ass hat, although that district has been slowly becoming more "purple" as the population grows.

[JSojourner]

I hope something else happens to make AK-AL competetive again.

I am surprised not to see the usual suspects from Indiana included.  I hope people aren't assuming that because the state went to Obama by a razor-thin margin that our Democratic members of Congress are safe.  They may well be safe, but it would probably have to do with the fact that they are voting more like Republicans.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I hope something else happens to make AK-AL competetive again.

I am surprised not to see the usual suspects from Indiana included.  I hope people aren't assuming that because the state went to Obama by a razor-thin margin that our Democratic members of Congress are safe.  They may well be safe, but it would probably have to do with the fact that they are voting more like Republicans.

It looks unlikely that any of them will be facing a serious challenger since the Republicans pretty much gave up on unseating Donnelly or Ellsworth last year, and Baron Hill crushed Mike Sodrel in Round 4 of their grudge match. They'll probably wait until after redistricting to target any of them again.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I don't even think Minnick is a Toss-Up; I think it's a Lean GOP district.

[JSojourner]

I hope something else happens to make AK-AL competetive again.

I am surprised not to see the usual suspects from Indiana included.  I hope people aren't assuming that because the state went to Obama by a razor-thin margin that our Democratic members of Congress are safe.  They may well be safe, but it would probably have to do with the fact that they are voting more like Republicans.

It looks unlikely that any of them will be facing a serious challenger since the Republicans pretty much gave up on unseating Donnelly or Ellsworth last year, and Baron Hill crushed Mike Sodrel in Round 4 of their grudge match. They'll probably wait until after redistricting to target any of them again.

Sodrel is a one-hit wonder.  All he does is trot out pictures of aborted fetuses.  Donnelly is behaving more like Chris Chocola than Tim Roemer.  And Roemer was pretty conservative for a Democrat.  I haven't followed Ellsworth.  But yeah -- the GOP may just be content with the Governor's office and one Senate seat for now.  There were some accusations of corruption against Pete Visclosky but nothing ever came of it.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I hope something else happens to make AK-AL competetive again.

I am surprised not to see the usual suspects from Indiana included.  I hope people aren't assuming that because the state went to Obama by a razor-thin margin that our Democratic members of Congress are safe.  They may well be safe, but it would probably have to do with the fact that they are voting more like Republicans.

It looks unlikely that any of them will be facing a serious challenger since the Republicans pretty much gave up on unseating Donnelly or Ellsworth last year, and Baron Hill crushed Mike Sodrel in Round 4 of their grudge match. They'll probably wait until after redistricting to target any of them again.

Sodrel is a one-hit wonder.  All he does is trot out pictures of aborted fetuses.  Donnelly is behaving more like Chris Chocola than Tim Roemer.  And Roemer was pretty conservative for a Democrat.  I haven't followed Ellsworth.  But yeah -- the GOP may just be content with the Governor's office and one Senate seat for now.  There were some accusations of corruption against Pete Visclosky but nothing ever came of it.

The Washington Post says Donnelly is voting with the Democrats 88.5% of the time. What exactly makes him a candidate for the Club for Growth?

[Padfoot]

I think that Joseph Cao's (R) seat, LA-2, should be considered a Toss-Up as well.

Seriously? If it would be on this list at all it'd be a very strong lean Dem. It's probably not included because it's not even considered competitive.

CQ has it rated in the less competitive "Democratic Favored" category.

I don't even think Minnick is a Toss-Up; I think it's a Lean GOP district.

I agree.  If Cao is almost certainly doomed then Minnick is at least slightly doomed.

[politicalchick20]

I think that Joseph Cao's (R) seat, LA-2, should be considered a Toss-Up as well.

Seriously? If it would be on this list at all it'd be a very strong lean Dem. It's probably not included because it's not even considered competitive.

I was just thinking in terms of other seats that were long held by the opposite party, such as Minnick's or Kratovil's. I agree, I think the Dems will win it back, I just thought, if Minnick's and Kratovil's were on there, Cao's probably should be there as well.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I guess these are going to be the most competitive according to CQ Politics. What does everyone think?

Leans Republican
• NJ-07: Leonard Lance (R)

Lawlzers.  The moment after Lance was elected, NJ Democratic Party bosses were falling over themselves to praise him.

The fact of the matter is that New Jersey Democrats (the leadership, that is) are comfortable with Leonard Lance in the congress (and most certainly like him on a personal and intellectual level), and there's no serious challenger in district to go after him.

In fact, Linda Stender is more likely to lose her Assembly seat than Lance is to lose his House seat, and Stender's seat is supposed to be "safe Dem."

[tmthforu94]

I hope something else happens to make AK-AL competetive again.

I am surprised not to see the usual suspects from Indiana included.  I hope people aren't assuming that because the state went to Obama by a razor-thin margin that our Democratic members of Congress are safe.  They may well be safe, but it would probably have to do with the fact that they are voting more like Republicans.

It looks unlikely that any of them will be facing a serious challenger since the Republicans pretty much gave up on unseating Donnelly or Ellsworth last year, and Baron Hill crushed Mike Sodrel in Round 4 of their grudge match. They'll probably wait until after redistricting to target any of them again.

Sodrel is a one-hit wonder.  All he does is trot out pictures of aborted fetuses.  Donnelly is behaving more like Chris Chocola than Tim Roemer.  And Roemer was pretty conservative for a Democrat.  I haven't followed Ellsworth.  But yeah -- the GOP may just be content with the Governor's office and one Senate seat for now.  There were some accusations of corruption against Pete Visclosky but nothing ever came of it.

Ellsworth is pretty safe. His main opponent is an unknown, but he could be a suprise. I got the chance to meet him, and all in all, he seems really down to earth. I wouldn't be suprised if Ellsworth got in a bit of danger. Someone who also could give him a run for his money is Bob Heaton, who played basketball @ ISU. He barely lost to Tincher in `08, and he could beat him in `10, but he might try and challenge Ellsworth.

[Holmes]

Ellsworth is more worried about the 2010 state legislature elections and the 2012 redistricting.

[minionofmidas]

NM-02 (...) should all be tossups.

Why? People voted for him because they liked him and didn't mind that he was a Democrat, not because he was a Democrat. I don't think he's going anywhere outside of a Republican wave year (unless he's had real problems settling into his new job or been amassing a far-left voting record, and nobody's told me.)

[Brittain33]

Ellsworth is more worried about the 2010 state legislature elections and the 2012 redistricting.

I wonder what the chances are that the legislature doesn't let Ellsworth keep his district and targets Baron Hill instead. Bloomington has to go somewhere. It's not easy to weaken Ellsworth further without helping Hill, and Ellsworth seems pretty solid.

[Sam Spade]

NM-02 (...) should all be tossups.

Why? People voted for him because they liked him and didn't mind that he was a Democrat, not because he was a Democrat. I don't think he's going anywhere outside of a Republican wave year (unless he's had real problems settling into his new job or been amassing a far-left voting record, and nobody's told me.)

He did vote for cap-and-trade (can't figure out why in that CD of all of them) and Steve Pearce will be re-running for his old House seat against him.

That definitely makes it worth lean D, but I'd wait at least 6 months before going any further.

As for Indiana, whenever the economy is really bad, anything can and will happen up there.  Whether or not the condition is satisfied or whether anything does *actually* happen, you need to wait some time to find out.

I basically agree with Moderate on anything New Jersey (that I've seen so far, ever).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

NM-02 (...) should all be tossups.

Why? People voted for him because they liked him and didn't mind that he was a Democrat, not because he was a Democrat. I don't think he's going anywhere outside of a Republican wave year (unless he's had real problems settling into his new job or been amassing a far-left voting record, and nobody's told me.)

Conservative district + yes vote on ACES + former Rep. running (assuming Pearce can match Teague's fundraising) = tossup.

[Mr.Phips]

NM-02 (...) should all be tossups.

Why? People voted for him because they liked him and didn't mind that he was a Democrat, not because he was a Democrat. I don't think he's going anywhere outside of a Republican wave year (unless he's had real problems settling into his new job or been amassing a far-left voting record, and nobody's told me.)

He did vote for cap-and-trade (can't figure out why in that CD of all of them) and Steve Pearce will be re-running for his old House seat against him.

That definitely makes it worth lean D, but I'd wait at least 6 months before going any further.

As for Indiana, whenever the economy is really bad, anything can and will happen up there.  Whether or not the condition is satisfied or whether anything does *actually* happen, you need to wait some time to find out.

I basically agree with Moderate on anything New Jersey (that I've seen so far, ever).

The economy was really bad in 1982 and only one incumbent lost his seat in Indiana and that was to a pretty strong Democrat after the Republican got caught for DWI.

[Sam Spade]

NM-02 (...) should all be tossups.

Why? People voted for him because they liked him and didn't mind that he was a Democrat, not because he was a Democrat. I don't think he's going anywhere outside of a Republican wave year (unless he's had real problems settling into his new job or been amassing a far-left voting record, and nobody's told me.)

He did vote for cap-and-trade (can't figure out why in that CD of all of them) and Steve Pearce will be re-running for his old House seat against him.

That definitely makes it worth lean D, but I'd wait at least 6 months before going any further.

As for Indiana, whenever the economy is really bad, anything can and will happen up there.  Whether or not the condition is satisfied or whether anything does *actually* happen, you need to wait some time to find out.

I basically agree with Moderate on anything New Jersey (that I've seen so far, ever).

The economy was really bad in 1982 and only one incumbent lost his seat in Indiana and that was to a pretty strong Democrat after the Republican got caught for DWI.

That's the reason why I said "maybe" and not "definitely". 

[Brittain33]

OH-01 should all be tossups.

OH-01 reminds me a lot of KY-03. Chabot may have been an awesome incumbent, but I don't see how he gets a foothold against an incumbent Driehaus, even without Obama on the ticket increasing African American turnout.