CQPolitics House Ratings 2010

[Dan the Roman]

OH-01 should all be tossups.

OH-01 reminds me a lot of KY-03. Chabot may have been an awesome incumbent, but I don't see how he gets a foothold against an incumbent Driehaus, even without Obama on the ticket increasing African American turnout.

If McCain had one this would almost certainly have been the case. But then if McCain was President it would make sense to move every seat at least one category to the Democrats. I think people are upset and will take it out on democratic incumbents, and then promptly vote to reelect Obama since the alternatives will be so bad. That is bad news for Corzine and Deeds, and for democratic incumbents next year.

[Mr.Phips]

OH-01 should all be tossups.

OH-01 reminds me a lot of KY-03. Chabot may have been an awesome incumbent, but I don't see how he gets a foothold against an incumbent Driehaus, even without Obama on the ticket increasing African American turnout.

If McCain had one this would almost certainly have been the case. But then if McCain was President it would make sense to move every seat at least one category to the Democrats. I think people are upset and will take it out on democratic incumbents, and then promptly vote to reelect Obama since the alternatives will be so bad. That is bad news for Corzine and Deeds, and for democratic incumbents next year.

You think Democrats will lose the House?

[minionofmidas]

Steve Pearce will be re-running for his old House seat against him.

Ah.

As you may notice, I'm not following this all that intensely yet.

[The Mikado]

What do people think about MD-01?

[minionofmidas]

Will go Republican unless Republicans run an even worse candidate than Harris or Kratovil digs in deeper than I guess he can. This strikes me as a lot harder to hold than NM-02, and not just because of more Republican votes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

NM-02 (...) should all be tossups.

Why? People voted for him because they liked him and didn't mind that he was a Democrat, not because he was a Democrat. I don't think he's going anywhere outside of a Republican wave year (unless he's had real problems settling into his new job or been amassing a far-left voting record, and nobody's told me.)

He did vote for cap-and-trade (can't figure out why in that CD of all of them) and Steve Pearce will be re-running for his old House seat against him.

That definitely makes it worth lean D, but I'd wait at least 6 months before going any further.

As for Indiana, whenever the economy is really bad, anything can and will happen up there.  Whether or not the condition is satisfied or whether anything does *actually* happen, you need to wait some time to find out.

I basically agree with Moderate on anything New Jersey (that I've seen so far, ever).

The economy was really bad in 1982 and only one incumbent lost his seat in Indiana and that was to a pretty strong Democrat after the Republican got caught for DWI.

That's the reason why I said "maybe" and not "definitely". 

Basically: swing voters in Indiana are more insane volatile "complicated" than elsewhere for whatever reason. 9th is still the most vulnerable though; demographic changes are slowly increasing the Republican base there (not the same as saying that Hill will lose again).

[Dan the Roman]

OH-01 should all be tossups.

OH-01 reminds me a lot of KY-03. Chabot may have been an awesome incumbent, but I don't see how he gets a foothold against an incumbent Driehaus, even without Obama on the ticket increasing African American turnout.

If McCain had one this would almost certainly have been the case. But then if McCain was President it would make sense to move every seat at least one category to the Democrats. I think people are upset and will take it out on democratic incumbents, and then promptly vote to reelect Obama since the alternatives will be so bad. That is bad news for Corzine and Deeds, and for democratic incumbents next year.

You think Democrats will lose the House?

I think they may come close. The current environment is very toxic for them, but then it always is for the party in power. Bush had a very bad January 2002 with the Trent Lott thing, and really bad January 2005. The incumbent party tends to rally in the last two months, so I think they will do better than it looks like they will next summer or this November when they lose both NJ and VA by large margins.

That said, the performance of the Democrats in special elections, especially in Appalachian and low-income white areas(and I am mainly thinking about three Alabama ones) are extremely worrying. If I were Rothenburg, I would add the Arkansas reps and Blanche Lincoln to the vulnerable list. The democrats are really tanking right now. This will not matter massively in places were the GOP is still toxic(the West Coast, New England), but in places were it is a viable alternative I expect them to do very well. Then I expect them to take the wrong message and blow it by nominating a second tier extremist in 2012.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

What do people think about MD-01?

Kratovil has a shot at a second term if Harris is the nominee again. So far no Eastern Shore Republican has jumped into the race, which is odd, because if they win the primary, they're pretty much guaranteed to win. Kratovil needs undiluted Eastern Shore regionalism on his side to win.

[Mr.Phips]

What do people think about MD-01?

Kratovil has a shot at a second term if Harris is the nominee again. So far no Eastern Shore Republican has jumped into the race, which is odd, because if they win the primary, they're pretty much guaranteed to win. Kratovil needs undiluted Eastern Shore regionalism on his side to win.

The problem for Kratovil is those horribly Republican suburban parts of Anne Arundel, Harford and Baltimore.  He needs to hold Republicans below 60% in them and get above 60% on the Eastern Shore. 

[Sam Spade]

Steve Pearce will be re-running for his old House seat against him.

Ah.

As you may notice, I'm not following this all that intensely yet.

You're not alone.  I doubt I'll put anything out until after the elections this year, though I'm trying to keep track of things already.

But there are a few states that I always watch closely for personal reasons, New Mexico being one of them.  Interestingly enough, it appears that Republicans also already have their candidate for NM-01 and have cleared the field for him (Hispanic guy within their organization).

[Brittain33]

That said, the performance of the Democrats in special elections, especially in Appalachian and low-income white areas(and I am mainly thinking about three Alabama ones) are extremely worrying.

I can't see extrapolating from state elections in Alabama to anything but very similar areas. Alabama is a conservative and racially polarized state that has never had a Republican legislature, post-Reconstruction. Obama's presidency may be doing for Alabama what Clinton's did for Georgia... accelerate long-term trends toward a realignment of the state party along ideological and racial lines. That's not great if you support the Alabama Democratic Party, nor if your last name is Bright, Griffith, or Folsom, but I have the sense that what happens in Dixie, stays in Dixie.

Arkansas has similarities to Alabama in terms of its rejection of Obama by white Democrats, but I would need to see some more evidence from that state that this is trickling down below the Presidential level and that Republicans are organizing to seriously challenge Democrats. It's still a one-party state.

Beyond those states, where else will we see the impact? Tennessee, maybe? Childers? Possibly eastern North Carolina, since the governor's numbers are in the toilet unexpected early? Louisiana elected Republicans over conservative Democrats to both its competitive house seats in 2008, which means the "backlash" is already priced in. All I see is fiddling at the margins of the majority.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

MI-07, PA-10 and OH-15 should be added to your list of weak Dems. PA-10 is a ruby red district. Carnet survived 2008 true, but there is no obvious Dem base in the district and with a stronger challenger this seat would be a good pickup. MI-07 was only lost by 4 points. OH-15 The Dem underperformed vary badly in 2008 and would be a prime target if things are looking good for the GOP. Lastly CO-04 is another one that would go to us with a competant challenger and a good environment.

[Mr.Phips]

MI-07, PA-10 and OH-15 should be added to your list of weak Dems. PA-10 is a ruby red district. Carnet survived 2008 true, but there is no obvious Dem base in the district and with a stronger challenger this seat would be a good pickup. MI-07 was only lost by 4 points. OH-15 The Dem underperformed vary badly in 2008 and would be a prime target if things are looking good for the GOP. Lastly CO-04 is another one that would go to us with a competant challenger and a good environment.

Carney won PA-10 by a 56%-44% margin even as McCain was winning the district.  He should be in pretty good shape. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Ugh, I hate myself for even responding to Neal, but the current day NJ-12 looks absolutely nothing like the NJ-12 of 1998.  It's more Democratic simply because they took out all the Republican parts in redistricting.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

MI-07, PA-10 and OH-15 should be added to your list of weak Dems. PA-10 is a ruby red district. Carnet survived 2008 true, but there is no obvious Dem base in the district and with a stronger challenger this seat would be a good pickup. MI-07 was only lost by 4 points. OH-15 The Dem underperformed vary badly in 2008 and would be a prime target if things are looking good for the GOP. Lastly CO-04 is another one that would go to us with a competant challenger and a good environment.

Carney won PA-10 by a 56%-44% margin even as McCain was winning the district.  He should be in pretty good shape. 

Potentially yes, but Hackett was a piss poor candidate, if we can manage to get a stronger candidate in the field this seat will be competative.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

There are 16 Districts with a CPVI of >R+10 represented by a Democrat:

MS-04 (R+20, Gene Taylor)
TX-17 (R+20, Chet Edwards)
ID-01 (R+18, Walt Minnick)
AL-02 (R+16, Bobby Bright)
UT-02 (R+15, Jim Matheson)
MS-01 (R+14, Travis Childers)
MO-04 (R+14, Ike Skelton)
OK-02 (R+14, Dan Boren)
MD-01 (R+13, Frank Kratovil)
TN-04 (R+13, Lincoln Davis)
TN-06 (R+13, Bart Gordon)
AL-05 (R+12, Parker Griffith)
LA-03 (R+12, Charlie Melancon)
VA-09 (R+11, Rick Boucher)
GA-08 (R+10, Jim Marshall)
ND-AL (R+10, Earl Pomeroy)

Taylor, Edwards, Matheson, Skelton, Boren, Davis, Gordon, Boucher, Marshall, and Pomeroy are probably safe, leaving 6 prime pickups among these seats.

[HappyWarrior]

I'm going to be working on the Kratovil reelection campaign considering I will be going to college in his district.

[minionofmidas]

MS-04 (R+20, Gene Taylor)
TX-17 (R+20, Chet Edwards)
ID-01 (R+18, Walt Minnick)
AL-02 (R+16, Bobby Bright)
UT-02 (R+15, Jim Matheson)
MS-01 (R+14, Travis Childers)
MO-04 (R+14, Ike Skelton)
OK-02 (R+14, Dan Boren)
MD-01 (R+13, Frank Kratovil)
TN-04 (R+13, Lincoln Davis)
TN-06 (R+13, Bart Gordon)
AL-05 (R+12, Parker Griffith)
LA-03 (R+12, Charlie Melancon)
VA-09 (R+11, Rick Boucher)
GA-08 (R+10, Jim Marshall)
ND-AL (R+10, Earl Pomeroy)

Taylor, Edwards, Matheson, Skelton, Boren, Davis, Gordon, Boucher, Marshall, and Pomeroy are probably safe, leaving 6 prime pickups among these seats.

Taylor - check
Edwards - probably. Not a dead cert.
Matheson - check
Skelton - probably. When was his last serious challenge though? Never say never I suppose.
Boren - check
Davis - check (I guess)
Gordon - check
Boucher - check
Marshall - probably. Not a dead cert.
Pomeroy - check. No, actually that doesn't describe it. Imagine bold and fontsize 40.

Others - Melancon is running for higher office, isn't he? Otherwise I'd add it to the list above, as an open race that certainly favors Republicans.
Childers isn't in safe list territory yet, but prime pickup opportunity might be stretching it. The man is good.
Griffith is pretty old for a newbie and was a less than stellar candidate, but that seat's democratic roots aren't as dead as recent presidential election results might make you want to think.
Minnick, Kratovil, Bright aren't quite Cao Anh territory, but they're certainly "prime pickup opportunities" - seats the Reps really, really shouldn't have ever lost.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Others - Melancon is running for higher office, isn't he? Otherwise I'd add it to the list above, as an open race that certainly favors Republicans.

Exactly.  If Melancon decides not to run for the Senate, then his seat will be safe.

[Ronnie]

If Melancon retires, I have a feeling Tauzin III will be back.

[minionofmidas]

If Melancon retires, I have a feeling Tauzin III will be back.

Quite likely, as a rumored candidate at the very least but certainly possible as the eventual winner.

[Mr.Phips]

Melancon would be a moron try and run against Vitter in 2010.  He would probably lose by 20 points. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Some FL-08 news:
Grayson: GOP wants 'you to die'

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0909/27726.html

Just one entertaining stumble after another (if you want to call this a stumble).  This kinda thing shouldn't come as any sort of surprise, though, considering he hired blogger Matt Stoller as his Policy Adviser.

[Lief 🗽]

Hopefully he's re-elected. One of the few Congresspeople who is willing to tell the truth.

[ajc0918]

Hopefully he's re-elected. One of the few Congresspeople who is willing to tell the truth.

You're kidding right.
He is the congressman from Acorn.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TdpPJKkFHVM